Mystery aircraft 4th August 2025: CCA vs other

M

mack8

Junior Member
SinoAmericanCW said:
I agree with the general thrust of your argument, but AFAIK there is no evidence that China wrapped up its 6th gen X-plane fly-off/competition in 2018-2019. The one
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we have of a likely Chinese 6th gen demonstrator was taken in 2021, around the same time the U.S. X-planes first flew.

IMO, the most likely scenario is that China's programs simply progressed faster into the EMD phase than their U.S. equivalents.
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I don't recall seeing the picture of the mystery CAC plane including the J-20 for reference. It appears to be smaller than the J-20, if it was a 6th gen demonstrator it was then more like a subscale one, at least compared to the J-36. However, what are the chances this is the CAC Little Leaf CCA, that we can see in the parade pics? Taking part in the parade meaning it's close to or in actual service, having it fly in 2021 or even earlier would certainly make sense. What you guys think?
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lcloo

lcloo

Major
styx said:
Well, I’m Italian, so I deal with the Italian and Western press. Many say that China’s new next-generation fighter jets are just propaganda stunts meant to steer public opinion into thinking that China is ahead. But in reality, the Chinese would actually be behind, especially in key technologies (engines, etc.). Meanwhile, the United States, calmly and methodically, is developing the F-47—essentially building a kind of ultimate fighter jet.

Do you agree with this view? To me, it would seem like a rather foolish strategy for China to show off muscles it doesn’t really have—it would only serve to unite its adversaries and push them to invest more. It reminds me of the MiG-25: its modern-looking appearance at the time spurred the Americans to commit heavily to the F-15.

I don’t know—this all feels like a form of Western propaganda to me, the kind that says: “Don’t worry, we’re still ahead,” complete with glossy graphics and flashy presentations.
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You have been around since 2005, you should know better. 20 years on this forum you should have learn a lot.
 
O

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
SinoAmericanCW said:
I agree with the general thrust of your argument, but AFAIK there is no evidence that China wrapped up its 6th gen X-plane fly-off/competition in 2018-2019. The one
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
we have of a likely Chinese 6th gen demonstrator was taken in 2021, around the same time the U.S. X-planes first flew.

IMO, the most likely scenario is that China's programs simply progressed faster into the EMD phase than their U.S. equivalents.
Click to expand...

2018-19 timeline for completion of Chinese 6th gen X planes fly off was not based on the 2021 satellite image. The core part of this logic would indicate that the 2021 image suggests an absolute latest completion of 2021. This might be the case. It might not even have finished by 2021 but inferring from the 2024 December prototype flights, well 3 years aint hardly enough to go from scaled down X plane models and CFD to full prototype flying over major population centres.

There is a monumental amount of work to go from X plane to prototype to LRIP. Each of these two gaps averages to 5 years to 10 years. J-20 we still don't even know how long between X plane of 5th gen fighter to 2011 prototype. Based on the conversations being hinted and dropped around that time, it was roughly 5 years. The convo leaks only drop as a minimum timeframe ie the convos were happening long before they get to the public. 2018-19 + 5 years =~ 2024. LRIP of 6th gen fighters roughly estimated to be late 2020s or 2030. All matches up.

2018-19 I used because it is the general timeline suggested on Chinese boards from my reading. It also matches the timeline of events we've observed and matches the hints dropped around the place wrt papers, suggestions from CAC engineers and of course all the various "placeholder" graphics which just so happen to perfectly line up with the aircraft silhouettes of the 6th gen prototypes we see flying. Hence 2018-19 wrapping up of X planes is more accurate to say than 2021.
 
T

tanino

New Member
Registered Member
lcloo said:
You have been around since 2005, you should know better. 20 years on this forum you should have learn a lot.
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OT: SORRY DEINO!
Many Italians have been following this site for years, including – as is well known – editors of newspapers and websites in the defense sector (obviously incognito). This lends authority to the site and proves that those who, with passion and expertise, have reported on the evolution of the defense sector (and of China, dispelling deep-rooted prejudices) were right.

Those who ‘help’ the sector to remain sustainable – I am talking about defense information in Italy and Europe – with advertisements... and then call... to get a copy of the publications...
You right?

In the West, there will always be those who paint China in a distorted and negative light, especially if they have to guarantee healthy budgets (this also applies to our US friends).

And so, editorial lines and related articles will remain tainted by:

- Systematic mistrust
- Low-level irony
- Grammar full of conditionals

The result? A predictable narrative:

- CHINA: Low level, simple copy of Western Product.
- USA: Unbeatable, supreme, decades ahead of the rest of the world (they may be the best at BBQ, but in Italy we eat better).
- EUROPE: Good, honest, creative... and expensive (see the Rafale, for example).
- RUSSIA: Brilliant inventors, despite limited infrastructure resources (true).

Now they're asking me to go back to doing infographics in the sector. I'm thinking about it.
But this time it will be my way.
 
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