Re: How Do You Sink A Carrier?
So China would have multiple types of assets on the coastline hunting for carriers -- KJ-2000's, Y-8's, maritime patrol aircrafts, and UAV's.
If the US were aware that a war time condition existed, the carrier would be well off shore and operating under very limited or no electronic emission conditions. They would also be making use of decoy positions for missiles traps. I do not think the PLAAF or PLAN in its current state, could find a US carrier strike group in such conditions without a lot of luck (something they do not want to depend on) or committing a huge force to the effort.
Send in the UAV's to confirm the location. It doesn't matter if they get shot down.
Saying this and doing it are two different things. 1st, they have to have a general location, which as I mentioned above, would be extremely difficult. Then, getting any UAV close enough to an alert carrier group is going to be a wholly different matter. Carrier based aircraft and carrier assets along the threat axis will probably ensure that no exisitng UAV would get close enough to tag the carrier itself.
Once you have a general location, assemble a strike group of Flankers and JH-7A's with ASM's.
The carrier is not going to be sitting there waiting for the enemy strike groups. Again, such a airborne enemy strike group, even if it knew the general location, would still have to aquire the exact position and then penetrate close enough to the carrier to launch their weapons. Fighter aircraft, missile traps, the AEGIS system, close in defenses, all are built to prevent this very thing. It would be playing to the absolute strength of the US carrier strike group. With literally hundreds of missiles and dozens of aircraft, and moving at a rapid pace in an erradicate course...this is an almost impossible task without committing much of the PLAN's, PLAAF, or any other nations defense assets.
I would recommend getting and reading the book,
for a great fictional expose on this very thing. A great read and a good indication on the difficulties and cost required for such an endeavor.
Also direct Shang class nuclear attack submarines to that location.
For the same reasons, an even more difficulty task. Unless those subs happen to be in the perfect position already (very unlikely, like a needle in a haystack happening to be in the perfect position to thread a loop in a button that is tossed into the haystack), those subs are going to have to transit at high speed to have any chance of interceptring the carrier...which means they will be heard and prosecuted by the very ample carrier ant-sub forces, from the air, from the surface of the ocean, and beneath the ocean with the carrier strike group's own attack subs.
With sufficient numbers, and a satellite constellation for communication and control (which China won't have until 2009), all these assets could launch dozens of ASM simultaneously. In that scenario, a sole CVBG would not survive, and even two CVBG's would be hurting bad -- after the initial strike.
Well, they would have to have a huge number of aircraft and vessles. Any satellite assets would be dealt withg by the US Air Force's (and the US Navy's) anti-satellite capabilities...unless we are talking about a one time, surprise attack.
Dozens of missiles is probably not enough...more like scores would be required. And even if the agressor nation were capable of expending the resource and getting through to one American carrier...then they would have to deal with several carriers on the next go round but with a highly reduced number of assets of their own to contend with it. IOW, they would then pay an even more tremendous price than it already cost for getting at and damaging or destroying the one.
Unless and until a nation like China or someone else, achieves near parity in terms of numbers of carriers, escort vessels, submarines, and aircraft to committ to such an endeavor such that they can lose a large number and have enough to then face the even greater force coming to retaliate...I do not believe such a scenario will be attempted by a large nation state.
I am not saying that those conditions cannot be arrived at...just that they are not arrived at to this point, or in the near future.
