We have been around and around on this.
The DF-21D has never been full-up, operationally tested by firing it out to sea over 1,000 km and trying to hit a manuevering target. Not once...much less numerous times. The very idea that a very complicated system like this, that is absolutely dependent upon such daunting C4ISR capabilities, would be considered anywhere close to fully operational without a single full-up, live fire test is simply ludicrous. Those requirements start before launch with respect to target acquisition, and extend right through to terminal targeting after re-entry.
Now, having said that, an opertion that is meant to pose the possibility of such a threat (while working to develop it) can be very effective. And THAT is exactly what is happening here in terms of AD. The PRC understands the culture of the west, and particularly its current concern about almost any casualites. So, despite never having been tested, if they can get enough credible people worrying about what it "might" do, they can give pause to powerful forces, and the very strength of the opposition, without ever firing a shot...even in testing.
And that, IMHO, is what is happening with the DF-21D.
..and that is classic Sun Tzu strategy, plain and simple. And it is working fairly well to this point.
As for me, and based on my own engineering and weapons system work...as I have said numerous times...until the PLAN proves to themselves and the rest of the world that their technology for these daunting capabilities actually works by reliably hitting maneuvering targets 1,000 km at sea and more...the project is an untested, unproven project. Full stop, end of story.
All the excuses, apologies, reasoning, in the world will not change that. Anyone who has ever worked on an actual complicated weapons system that must be proven in the elements where it intends to operate, knows what I am saying is true.
It would be like sending the Chinese carrier, the Liaoning, CV-16, out to sea with a deck load of J-15 aircraft, where not a one of those aircraft had ever actually landed on, or taken off from the moving carrier at sea, and saying it was operational anyway...and ready to send out strikes at sea against OPFOR carriers.
Ask yourself. Is that what the PLAN is doing? Of course not.
They have to make sure those compicated naval air systems will work in the environment they were designed for, and reliably so, by testing them, constantly improving, training all of the parts together, over and over again...before ever committing them to operational duties or battle. The risk of having them fail precisely when they are needed would otherwise simply be far too great.
In numerous ways the C4ISR capabilities required for the DF-21D are even more daunting than those necessary for a carrier strike at sea scenario. There is no way of reliably knowing it is going to work without testing and improving it through numerous such tests...which have simply not happened to date.
But, this has been said many times...so, I will document it here once more so people can consider it.
