Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Exactly. There's no test against maneuvering warhead, and no test against warhead with multiple decoys. In other words, non of the tests that took place was a full-scale test against an ASBM.
As I stated above, the tests of the SM-3 have been rather more involved than you are suggesting. They have tested against more advanced targets, including manuevering. I have not seen any indication against MIRVs yet...but they will.

They are currently (as has been discussed) preparing and testing an upgrade for decoys.

The point is, as always, that the SM-3 is tested in full blown, live fire tests against what it is meant to fight against...and is continuing to do so as new threats materialize. This allows the US and its allies to guage the effectiveness and improve it...as they are doing.

No full blown operational, live fire test of the DF-21D against a manuevering vessel in the ocean has been conducted. That's the difference and it is a big one. If the PLAN wants to continue to deploy without such testing, that is their perogative...but I believe sooner or later they will have to do so. That's my only point.
 

Engineer

Major
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

And my point is that to date, there has been no full-blown test specifically against ASBM type missile or warhead, exactly identical to the situation of ASBM as far as we know (discounting the rumor about Yuan Wang 3).

What is meant by full-blown test? According to you, it would have to involve a target as big as the carrier moving at 30kts throwing decoys, ECM, and weapons at the incoming warhead. Applying this same standard, a full-blown test for SM-3 would require an IRBM that would target near-by area of a target ship, with a non-traditional flight trajectory, maneuver and throw decoys at that ship's defense. Has the latter been done? No. Are the tests that have been conducted so far "more involved" as you suggested? That depends on the definition of the Weasel word.

According to
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, and
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the objectives of the most recent tests were:
  • FMT-10 - intercept of a warhead separating from missile.
  • FTM-11a - intercept with "minimal" data provided to AEGIS.
  • FTM-12 - intercept of a warhead separating from missile using SM-3 launched by a destroyer.
  • FTM-13 - engagement of two ballistic missiles simultaneously with two SM-3s.
  • JFTM-1 - engagement of a ballistic missile from a Japanese vessel.
Where are the tests for engaging decoys? Where are the tests for engaging maneuverable re-entry vehicle? Where are the tests involving the target flying in non-traditional trajectory?

So far, the discussion in this thread can be summed up in the following conversation:
ASBM proponents: ASBM can engage carriers.
Naysayers: No, that's an impossible task.
ASBM proponents: We have seen so-and-so indicating ASBM works.
Naysayers: ASBM cannot work because the carrier moves, then there are decoys and ECM. There is no proof that ASBM works, unless there has been a full-blown test. Beside, Aegis BMD from CVBG can engage ASBM.
ASBM proponents: No, tests that are not full-blown are still tests. Also, BMD engaging ASBM is an impossible task.
Naysayers: We have seen so-and-so indicating BMD works against ASBM.
ASBM proponents: BMD cannot work against ASBM because there will be decoys, ECM, and maneuverable warhead.
Naysayers: Eventually BMD will work against decoys, ECM, and maneuverable warhead, so BMD can engage ASBM. On the other hand, decoys, ECM and defense will make ASBM hitting a carrier an impossibility.
ASBM proponents: There is no full-blown test that indicates BMD can do all those things.
Naysayers: Yes, there are!

In summary, the naysayers treat US weapons as magical and can do anything, but when China replicates the same thing with their weapons, the naysayers claim the same tricks will not work. How inconsistent. :rolleyes:
 
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

And my point is that to date, there has been no full-blown test specifically against ASBM type missile or warhead, exactly identical to the situation of ASBM as far as we know (discounting the rumor about Yuan Wang 3).

What is meant by full-blown test? According to you, it would have to involve a target as big as the carrier moving at 30kts throwing decoys, ECM, and weapons at the incoming warhead.
No, I said a full up test would be shot into the opcean at a manuevering vessel that simulated such conditions...would definitely not have to be all that you have mentioned in an attempt to trump up your own point.

Applying this same standard, a full-blown test for SM-3 would require an IRBM that would target near-by area of a target ship, with a non-traditional flight trajectory, maneuver and throw decoys at that ship's defense. Has the latter been done? No. Are the tests that have been conducted so far "more involved" as you suggested? That depends on the definition of the Weasel word.:
I will find the data and post it...but the tests have been more involved and one of them was specifically against more advanced missiles which were manueverable.

So far, the discussion in this thread can be summed up in the following conversation:
ASBM proponents: ASBM can engage carriers.
Naysayers: No, that's an impossible task.
I have never said that the ASBM could not engage a carrier or that it is impossible, so please do not address such crtissm to me.

ASBM proponents: We have seen so-and-so indicating ASBM works.
Naysayers: ASBM cannot work because the carrier moves, then there are decoys and ECM. There is no proof that ASBM works, unless there has been a full-blown test. Beside, Aegis BMD from CVBG can engage ASBM.
Again, I have never said it cannot, I have said it is very difficult. I have said that the ASBM is charging into the face of the CSG most effective defense. That does not make it impossible or indicate that the US system is infallable.

ASBM proponents: No, tests that are not full-blown are still tests. Also, BMD engaging ASBM is an impossible task.
Naysayers: We have seen so-and-so indicating BMD works against ASBM.
ASBM proponents: BMD cannot work against ASBM because there will be decoys, ECM, and maneuverable warhead.
Naysayers: Eventually BMD will work against decoys, ECM, and maneuverable warhead, so BMD can engage ASBM. On the other hand, decoys, ECM and defense will make ASBM hitting a carrier an impossibility.
ASBM proponents: There is no full-blown test that indicates BMD can do ...Naysayers: Yes, there are!
Again, you are putting things into words that I have never said.

In summary, the naysayers treat US weapons as magical and can do anything, but when China replicates the same thing with their weapons, the naysayers claim the same tricks will not work. How inconsistent. :rolleyes:
I have never treated them as magical whatsoever, so please do not make such statements when replying to me...reply to those who you believe have specifically said or indicated such things. You are casting too broad a net and thereby decreasing your own credability.

The fact is that the US AEGIS BMD system has been tested against ballistic missiles and continues to be tesed. The threat levels are increasing so the tests are attempting to keep up with them. As has been referenced in this thread a decoy system for the SM-3 is being readied and will be tested. MIRV weapons will ultimately be tested...and will obviocly be similar to decoy tests which they simulate.

The US is open about its tests and continues to conduct them. The PLAN has not conducted any such test shooting a DF-21D missile out over the ocean at a manuevering vessel.

As I have repeatedly said, one day I believe they will have to to be sure their huge investment is working correctly...and to be able to improve the system as the US improves their SM-3s. The PLAN will want to test against those improvements and overcome them.

This is not a dis or an attack on the PLAN, it is a simple statement of very standard testing, maintenance and continuous improvement policies for weapons systems.

Anyhow, we continue to go around and around...but please do not attribute to me what you are accusing your "naysayers" of. I have not said the PLAN "cannot" develop a weapon. I have not said the US weapons are "magic" or "invincible". I have simply pointed out that the standard practice of conducting live tests has not been reached yet for the DF-21D and this gives me pause. That should not upset yopu because it is simply the truth.

If the PRC and PLAN want to go for full operation without doing so...that's their choice. But I do not think it wise or in keeping with standard practise meant to show the capabilities of the system and improve on it over time. That's why I believe sooner or later they will do so.
 
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Engineer

Major
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Just so we are on the same page Jeff, I never said ASBM will be invulnerable to decoys, ECM or hard defense, either. But incorporation of decoys, maneuverable warhead, and non-standard trajectory onto the ASBM will make the already difficult problem of exo-atmospheric interception a lot more difficult. Maneuverable warhead is a given, and by extension it would result in non-standard a flight trajectory. Decoys are employed on ICBMs, so their use in this case is also likely; especially so when the engineers involved would have to anticipate countermeasures from CVBG.

If China wants to put ASBM system into operation without a full-blown test, then they obviously would have the necessary engineering data to support their decision. We have absolutely no basis to judge whether their decision is sound or not.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

If China wants to put ASBM system into operation without a full-blown test, then they obviously would have the necessary engineering data to support their decision. We have absolutely no basis to judge whether their decision is sound or not.
We certainly do not know the basis for the decision...but we can certainly make our own judgements on that decision based on history, our won knowledge of missile system development (and that will vary from one to another) and on common sense.

To deploy a system to the field for operation without a full test , as I have stated, does not seem wise. There are many reassons they may want to do so...in times of war, particularly if things look dire, it is very understandable. In times of peace if you want to give another side pause with the very threat of the weapon, it can also be understood...and I personally believe that is close to the reaon here.

But, in peace time, I feel we will ultimately see those tests...and as I have said before, I look forwar dto then and the opportunity to analyze them.
 

NikeX

Banned Idiot
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

.....But incorporation of decoys, maneuverable warhead, and non-standard trajectory onto the ASBM will make the already difficult problem of exo-atmospheric interception a lot more difficult.

Those measures mentioned above will also make hitting the carrier much more difficult. Every pound of payload taken by including decoys, fins or motors for a maneuvering warhead and guidance for non-standard trajectories takes away from the size of the warhead.

The Russians found that out with their SS-NX-13 and compensated for the lack of precision by including a nuclear warhead.

It should be remembered that the Russians have been the only sea power to attempt an ASBM

The SS-NX-13 submarine-launched ballistic missile is a short-range, two-stage, storable liquid-propellant missile apparently designed for anti-ship missions. It is capable of delivering a reentry vehicle in the 2500-lb class, containing a warhead with a yield of 2.0 to 3.5 MT, to a minimum operational range of 80 nm or a maximum operational range of 360 nm. The missile flies a lofted trajectory, and is unique in that it has an impact-point correction capability of up to 30 nm through use of a restartable second-stage. The missile uses an inertial guidance system aided by an onboard passive ELINT target sensor. In a pure ballistic mode the SS-NX-13 is capable of a CEP of about 0.3 nm, and against cooperative targets, i.e., a target emanating radio-frequency transmissions, the SS-NX-13 is capable of a CEP of 0.1 to 0.2 nm.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

(Some three decades ago)
 

firefox007

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

(Some three decades ago)


As long as there is a need for modern force-projection, as long as oceans exist, basically, there will be a need to launch platforms from these artificial runways. The only question is the back-and-forth that always exists between measure/counter-measure. With both sides of that argument always claiming final victory for their side!
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Those measures mentioned above will also make hitting the carrier much more difficult. Every pound of payload taken by including decoys, fins or motors for a maneuvering warhead and guidance for non-standard trajectories takes away from the size of the warhead.

The Russians found that out with their SS-NX-13 and compensated for the lack of precision by including a nuclear warhead.

It should be remembered that the Russians have been the only sea power to attempt an ASBM

Nike X please don't bring this SS-NX13 to the discussion It is product from another era and time and has no relevance to the ASBM. It is like comparing Mustang 1980 to Porsche

To begin with this missile work on different principle than ASBM . SS-NX-13, homed on targets using a radar direction-finding sensor tuned to detect only specific
U.S. Navy radars. and not network centric ASBM.

The other thing Rorsat is primitive ocean surveillance system compare to what China has now. Just Yaogan series alone has 12 satellites and 5 more coming next year. Not counting Shijian, Haiying and other maritime surveillance satellite

They were not withdrawn because of failure but in order to comply to SALT treaty
If you want to know I include this reference about SS_NX13

SS-NX-13, homed on targets using a radar direction-finding sensor tuned to detect only specific
U.S. Navy radars. Since this approach could not offer the homing precision of a terminal radar
seeker, SS-NX-13 carried a megaton-class nuclear warhead. This way, the warhead could miss
the targeted warships by few tenths of a mile and still annihilate it along with any nearby escorts.
SS-NX-13 was to be carried aboard Soviet Project 667A (NATO designation: Yankee) nuclearpowered
ballistic missile submarines, and a fire control system was developed that would have
allowed a Yankee’s crew to target the missile against warships up to 600 nautical miles away
using downloaded RORSAT/EORSAT contact data. The Soviets never operationally deployed
SS-NX-13, however, as the first Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) treaty counted
submarines’ ballistic missile tubes against the treaty’s strategic missile inventory limits. The

The Soviets developed two types of satellites for this mission. The first, known as US-A
by the Soviets and the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) by NATO, used a SAR
to scan the ocean’s surface for large ships.96 Following eight and a half tumultuous years of
development and testing, the Soviets launched their first operational RORSAT in1974. RORSAT
was designed to download its contacts’ coordinates only on command from the SOSS ground
control station in Moscow, and it could execute the download only for the few minutes per orbit
it flew within the station’s line of sight. In theory, SOSS operators could use the data received
from RORSAT pairs whose orbits allowed them to scan the same waterspace 20-30 minutes
apart to calculate detected ships’ approximate courses and speeds. After the two RORSATs
revisited the same area 90 minutes after their respective initial passes, SOSS operators could
confirm their tactical picture’s accuracy. Specially-equipped surface combatants, submarines,
and bombers could also receive direct downlinks from RORSATs, but to do so the Moscow
ground station had to instruct the RORSATs to transmit a ‘download in the blind’ when they
passed over a designated ocean area at a designated time. This meant an equipped ‘shooter’ had
to be guided by SOSS controllers into the designated area on time—hardly a simple coordination
task amidst the friction of war. While two-hour time-latency RORSAT contact coordinates were
considered acceptable by SOSS controllers,
it is important to understand that a warship steaming
at 30 knots could mathematically be anywhere within a 11300 square nautical mile AOU after
96 As will be discussed later in this section, evidence from the 1980s strongly suggests that RORSAT’s SAR lacked
the sensitivity and discrimination capabilities needed to image its contacts.

that length of time.97 RORSAT, therefore, could provide cueing to help second-layer SOSS assets
redetect a battleforce but could not provide targeting-quality data for ‘shooters’ except under
ideal circumstances.98 The Soviets did not maintain constant RORSAT presence in orbit, but
rather launched one or two at a time in response to Western naval activity.99
The second satellite type, known as US-P by the Soviets and the ELINT Ocean
Reconnaissance Satellite (EORSAT) by NATO, employed RF direction-finding/ELINT sensors.
Although the Soviets launched several general-purpose ELINT satellites during the 1960s, most
were incapable of detecting U.S. Navy radars’ emissions. EORSAT was designed to fill this
specific Soviet capability gap.100 First launched in 1975, EORSAT could localize a radartransmitting
U.S. warship within a 1.3 nautical mile AOU. If this or another EORSAT later
redetected the same warship, SOSS operators could use the fix history to estimate the warship’s
approximate course and speed. More importantly, SOSS operators could correlate EORSAT data
with RORSAT contacts. This in turn informed their decisions on where to dispatch second-layer
SOSS assets. Like RORSAT, EORSAT stored its data until the Moscow ground station directed
a download to either the SOSS fusion center or a waiting missile-shooter at sea.101 This delayed
reporting problem was amplified by the hours-long gaps between EORSAT revisits of a given
area. Revisit gaps of 6-14 hours were common for waters bordering the Soviets' northern
periphery, and gaps of over a day were not uncommon closer to the equator.
Although
Soviets were apparently unwilling to trade away any part of their strategic nuclear arsenal for a
tactical ASBM capability
 
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NikeX

Banned Idiot
Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Nike X please don't bring this SS-NX13 to the discussion It is product from another era and time and has no relevance to the ASBM. It is like comparing Mustang 1980 to Porsche

I disagree with your analysis. SS-NX-13 is the only ASBM ever tested and taken to the stage of deployment. If we accept your comparison of a Mustang to a Porsche you must admit that both drive on four wheels, use gasoline powered engines, and fall under the category of 'cars'.

The relevance of SS-NX-13 to any ASBM is that it was the first attempt to use a ballistic missile to strike at an American carrier. Further SS-NX-13 was the first weapon to be part of an satellite ocean surveillance system to target a carrier battlegroup and threaten a carrier beyond visual range.

In many ways SS-NX-13 is the father of the DF-21D

If you feel SS-NX-13 has no place in this discussion then perhaps you are prepared to explain how SS-NX-13 differs from the DF-15D. That explanation would then give your objections more weight.

The other thing Rorsat is primitive ocean surveillance system compare to what China has now. Just Yaogan series alone has 12 satellites and 5 more coming next year. Not counting Shijian, Haiying and other maritime surveillance satellite

The Yaogan 6 series is still considered to be a first generation system. Even taking these early efforts of the Chinese to set up an ocean surveillance system you must be aware that the Russian system was world wide in scope. The Chinese system being deployed is confined to cover the western approaches to China. Finally the Chinese themselves give credit to the Russians for providing technical assistance in setting up the Chinese ocean surveillance system.

"Chinese experts reportedly received technical assistance from Russian satellite experts in years following the Soviet Union's collapse," said associate professor Andrew Erickson at the China Maritime Studies Institute. "Specialists at the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environmental Dynamics have researched ship detection using [SAR]."

So you need to take another look at the SS-NX-13 before you dismiss it out of hand.
 
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