Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

plawolf said:

How can you know that?

Unlike US ABM tests, China does not release any official material on its AShBM tests, if such a programme exists.

Your definition of 'operational tests' is quite unreasonable in my view, as you are almost willfully ruling out all possible evidence of tests so long as it's not conducted against a target out at sea.

Live firings against targets out at sea would be the final validation and pre-deployment tests. By the time we see that, the programme would be nearing the end of it's initial development and testing phase and could be operationally deployed soon afterwards.

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there are some test are easily covered, some not. buildinng an aircraft carriers, testing and cover it up is not easy as building an aircraft, test, and cover it up. building ASBM, simulating test can be cover up easilly, but during field test, its easy for other countries to detect it, mainly because the altitude and distance its traveling. Many nations has capability to detect ballistic missile lunch, china might able to fool one, but not all of them. nation who test ballistic missile often contact other nation before the test for assurance purpose. When china test its ICBM, they notify several nations before its test.

even after Live firings against targets out at sea, there are still alot work to be done, data colletion, analyzing, debug, improvement etc. for example j20 and varyag both have field test already, but its still not in deployment or operational status.

In any complex system, military or otherwise, the system has to be test over and over again before consider it as operational. china might test the missile few times before it gets all the bugs, improvements done.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Pointblank said:

Everything. Such a drone will have to operate completely independent of a human operator and have very smart systems that can identify friend from foe from neutral. No one is at that stage yet in artificial intelligence yet beyond lab studies with supercomputers.

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I would imagine that its much easier to program a drone sub than to program a drone flyer.

s002wjh said:

continuously communication in real time or communication at any given time at any given environment. since water doesn't conduct RF signal well, they have to find another way of communication,. also autonomous programming, recognition software etc. but the main issue is how to communicate/control something under water constantly. its much simpler if its remote control rather than fully autonomous. but that require coninuously communicate with the sub, able to send complex command to the drone underwater(EM signal is out of question, unless the sub drone drag 2mile long antenna).

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identifying friend from foe can be done via short-range challenge/response communication.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

s002wjh said:

you are assume the chinese are downplay the capabilities, I can also assume US overplay the df21 capabilities. the things is there aren't any verify test data that shows DF21 currently pass the developement phase. Until there are actual field test data came out df21, no one can said 100% its working.

school doesn't teach you how to design missile guidance system. those system are design/devleoped by experience engineer with decades of experience. they need some high skill with alot experence with these kind of system design in order to get it work.

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The same can be said of ABM SM3 As far as I know the test only conducted against single warhead in idealized environment with no counter measure. in other word a dumb down test.

Even that it has not destroyed the warhead and 3 times they missed the target completely.

You should buy a book by Rolf Hilmes the main designer of Leopard Tanks. In it he describe the development of Leopard tanks



Germany has designed many good tanks. But by 1950 all the folks who designed the Panther or Tiger tank have been either dead or retired, by the time German decide to revive the armament industry in 1950.

He basically has to start from the scratch but what save him is the good German auto industry that leave unscathed thru the the WW II. So company like Rheinmetall and Krauss Mafffei are still there

So Germany made a complete break with the past and has to start from blank paper.

Fast forward the people who designed the JF 17 and J 10 are now in their mid 30's completely young engineers at their peak of creativity!.

China does not lack experience engineer that can tutor young engineer. Song Wenzong the doyen of China aerospace industry has to accumulate experience thru hard of work of unending reverse engineer Mig 17.

But the knowledge gained form the foundation for the succeeding generation of Aircraft designer. China maybe behind in jet engine but when it come to Rocket and missile she is up there with the best. Because China never interrupt missile R&D even during the height of cultural revolution It is priority number 1

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

I would imagine that its much easier to program a drone sub than to program a drone flyer.




identifying friend from foe can be done via short-range challenge/response communication.

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program both are diffcult. underwater has other things to worry about, terrain, large marine life etc.

control and communicate with the sub in underwater would be diffcult, since you can't use RF.

to identify the enemy ship, an outside source has to tell the sub, the enemy current location, sonar signature etc, that means it has to contact the drone sub somehow.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Hendrik_2000 said:

The same can be said of ABM SM3 As far as I know the test only conducted against single warhead in idealized environment with no counter measure. in other word a dumb down test.

Even that it has not destroyed the warhead and 3 times they missed the target completely.

You should buy a book by Rolf Hilmes the main designer of Leopard Tanks. In it he describe the development of Leopard tanks

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Germany has designed many good tanks. But by 1950 all the folks who designed the Panther or Tiger tank have been either dead or retired, by the time German decide to revive the armament industry in 1950.

He basically has to start from the scratch but what save him is the good German auto industry that leave unscathed thru the the WW II. So company like Rheinmetall and Krauss Mafffei are still there

So Germany made a complete break with the past and has to start from blank paper.

Fast forward the people who designed the JF 17 and J 10 are now in their mid 30's completely young engineers at their peak of creativity!.

China does not lack experience engineer that can tutor young engineer. Song Wenzong the doyen of China aerospace industry has to accumulate experience thru hard of work of unending reverse engineer Mig 17.

But the knowledge gained form the foundation for the succeeding generation of Aircraft designer. China maybe behind in jet engine but when it come to Rocket and missile she is up there with the best. Because China never interrupt missile R&D even during the height of cultural revolution It is priority number 1

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the ABM least has several field test, this can't be said the same for ASBM. from design, development to field test is LONG process. from field test to actual deployment is also a LONG process.

China does has good missile technology, but the technology require for ASBM to work not only involve missile, but also missile guidance, detection, tracking, control, countermeasure protection etc etc.

new engineers require years to learn things from more experience engineers. thats why the newly graduated can only help the system, lead engineer in simple task, but the design, development etc are done by more season engineer. once they accumlate years of experience then they can become lead/system engineer for other project.

To get the DF21 hit an actual carrier under combat conditon, alot system has to work properly, not just the missile. to detect, track, destroy a moving target at that range and speed is very diffcult, it require alot people, resource and time. this a decade time frame project at the minimum

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

s002wjh said:

the ABM least has several field test, this can't be said the same for ASBM. from design, development to field test is LONG process. from field test to actual deployment is also a LONG process.

China does has good missile technology, but the technology require for ASBM to work not only involve missile, but also missile guidance, detection, tracking, control, countermeasure protection etc etc.

new engineers require years to learn things from more experience engineers. thats why the newly graduated can only help the system, lead engineer in simple task, but the design, development etc are done by more season engineer. once they accumlate years of experience then they can become lead/system engineer for other project.

To get the DF21 hit an actual carrier under combat conditon, alot system has to work properly, not just the missile. to detect, track, destroy a moving target at that range and speed is very diffcult, it require alot people, resource and time. this a decade time frame project at the minimum

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If they can hit head on small 750 kg mass satellite, 9 m3 at altitude 537 mile, traveling 28800 km/hr They have the necessary C4ISR to hit large 120,000 ton, 1000 ft ship travel at 45 mile /hr.



China did test the individual ASBM missile system against simulated target over land As Admiral Willard and ONI repeatedly said and we have picture to confirm it. in 2010 China did sink large satellite tracking ship with radar reflector. I imagine they test the tracking system.

In 2010 they successfully intercept ICBM at mid course flight over 1800 mile

Posted on Thursday, October 07, 2010 10:28:23 PM by ErnstStavroBlofeld

China recently conducted a long-range missile flight test that remains shrouded in secrecy.

The Sept. 25 test highlights what China military specialists say is the growing threat posed by Beijing's development of long- and short-range ballistic and cruise missiles, and its new missile defense interceptors.

A U.S. official confirmed that China's military fired a missile from the Taiyuan missile center, about 320 miles southwest of Beijing, to Korla, a city in western China some 1,800 miles away.

Officials declined to provide details, saying the test data are classified.

What they haven't done it test the whole system. I doubt they will ever do that too provocative unless they are making statement


The 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test was conducted by China on January 11, 2007. A Chinese weather satellite—the FY-1C polar orbit satellite of the Fengyun series, at an altitude of 865 kilometres (537 mi), with a mass of 750 kg[1]—was destroyed by a kinetic kill vehicle traveling with a speed of 8 km/s in the opposite direction[2] (see Head-on engagement). It was launched with a multistage solid-fuel missile from Xichang Satellite Launch Center or nearby.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Hendrik_2000 said:

If they can hit head on small 750 kg mass satellite, 9 m3 at altitude 537 mile, traveling 28800 km/hr They have the necessary C4ISR to hit large 120,000 ton, 1000 ft ship travel at 45 mile /hr.

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China did test the individual ASBM missile system against simulated target over land As Admiral Willard and ONI repeatedly said and we have picture to confirm it. in 2010 China did sink large satellite tracking ship with radar reflector. I imagine they test the tracking system.

In 2010 they successfully intercept ICBM at mid course flight over 1800 mile

Posted on Thursday, October 07, 2010 10:28:23 PM by ErnstStavroBlofeld

China recently conducted a long-range missile flight test that remains shrouded in secrecy.

The Sept. 25 test highlights what China military specialists say is the growing threat posed by Beijing's development of long- and short-range ballistic and cruise missiles, and its new missile defense interceptors.

A U.S. official confirmed that China's military fired a missile from the Taiyuan missile center, about 320 miles southwest of Beijing, to Korla, a city in western China some 1,800 miles away.

Officials declined to provide details, saying the test data are classified.

What they haven't done it test the whole system. I doubt they will ever do that too provocative unless they are making statement


The 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test was conducted by China on January 11, 2007. A Chinese weather satellite—the FY-1C polar orbit satellite of the Fengyun series, at an altitude of 865 kilometres (537 mi), with a mass of 750 kg[1]—was destroyed by a kinetic kill vehicle traveling with a speed of 8 km/s in the opposite direction[2] (see Head-on engagement). It was launched with a multistage solid-fuel missile from Xichang Satellite Launch Center or nearby.

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i think we go over this before, hitting something in space with known location vs hitting a non-fix target in the sea, atomsphere, countermeasure etc is different. satelite has fix orbit, so you already know the position beforehand, also anti-sat missile gudiance doesn't have to worry about re-entry temperature, background noise such as sea, and other things. the satelite position and its future location is already known or calcuated. ASBM system has to Detect, identify, tracking, and hitting it under combat condition. the anti-satelite, they don't have to detect, identify the targets.
you link the article yourself in post #708, saying the weapon system still undergoing research.

since this technology hasn't been done before, it will take time to fix all the bugs before its deployement.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

s002wjh said:

i think we go over this before, hitting something in space with known location vs hitting a non-fix target in the sea, atomsphere, countermeasure etc is different. satelite has fix orbit, so you already know the position beforehand, also anti-sat missile gudiance doesn't have to worry about re-entry temperature, background noise such as sea, and other things. the satelite position and its future location is already known or calcuated. ASBM system has to Detect, identify, tracking, and hitting it under combat condition. the anti-satelite, they don't have to detect, identify the targets.
you link the article yourself in post #708, saying the weapon system still undergoing research.

since this technology hasn't been done before, it will take time to fix all the bugs before its deployement.

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In fact it so much easier to hit lumbering slow moving hot target over cold sea then small fast satellite . in 30 minute the satellite move 144,000km from it original position.So it is not predictable at all. The same argument apply to hitting ICBM head on in blind test

I also prove it to you that AC cannot even escape the kill zone of lowly small Anti surface missile within the 30 minute evasive time. All your other arguments are red herring. Exocet,Harpoon, C602 and all other surface missile have overcome cluttering or what not

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

s002wjh said:

there are some test are easily covered, some not. buildinng an aircraft carriers, testing and cover it up is not easy as building an aircraft, test, and cover it up. building ASBM, simulating test can be cover up easilly, but during field test, its easy for other countries to detect it, mainly because the altitude and distance its traveling. Many nations has capability to detect ballistic missile lunch, china might able to fool one, but not all of them. nation who test ballistic missile often contact other nation before the test for assurance purpose. When china test its ICBM, they notify several nations before its test.

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Why would China need to cover up the test?

Many nations can detect a missile launch, but how are they going to tell whether it was an AShBM test of just another conventional missile test just looking at the flight path? Even evidence that the warhead is doing terminal maneuvering cannot establish if the Chinese were testing AShBM or just advanced warheads to counter ABM for their strategic warheads.

Point is, AShBM tests can be very easily disguised when conducted on land, which would be a massive advantage if such a programme actually exists because the PLA would not want to remove all doubt and help the USN secure more funding for ABM work.

even after Live firings against targets out at sea, there are still alot work to be done, data colletion, analyzing, debug, improvement etc. for example j20 and varyag both have field test already, but its still not in deployment or operational status.

In any complex system, military or otherwise, the system has to be test over and over again before consider it as operational. china might test the missile few times before it gets all the bugs, improvements done.

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Surely you realize the difference between missiles and planes/ships right?

It can take thousands of test flights to certify a plane, but how many live firings were needed to declare the SM3 operational?

How many tests did the US and Russians carry out to verify that their respective anti-satellite weapons are operational?

Also, if and when China does fire off a DF21D against a sea based target, that will not be the first time elements of the system has been tested out, that will be when they put all the elements together to see if the whole package works. Even then, the testing will probably be as much about sending out a political statement as about testing the weapon.

The Chinese do not like taking risks publicly, and so the first sea test will probably be more for show than an actual test, as it is very unlikely that the PLA would risk such a high-profile and undeniable test unless they were very confident that it will work.

That is far far closer to operational deployment than the first flight of a plane or the launching of a ship.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

solarz said:

I would imagine that its much easier to program a drone sub than to program a drone flyer.




identifying friend from foe can be done via short-range challenge/response communication.

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With aerial based assets, it is easier to communicate via radio. Underwater assets, it gets extremely difficult; radio waves do not penetrate water very well. In short, your drone sub will have to spend a lot of time at the surface or have its mast sticking out which means someone can drop a bomb, depth charge or a torpedo on it and call it a day.