Miscellaneous News

Because some people here are having trouble grappling with how to strategize against a nuclear existential threat (or even assuming with full confidence that they know the best strategy, when in fact it is among the worst), this little segment of a clip might help (specifically the Minimax Strategy):
If that caught your interest, try the following clip next:

The wiki page on minimax is pretty dense, so these videos are an easier way to digest and understand it.

Eventine said:

There's no such thing as a war with Japan that lasts a week. Even if you defeat their navy in a week, you'd have to invade or embargo them into a surrender. Perfect opportunity for the US to create a new Ukraine through submarine warfare and getting the Japanese to fight house to house.

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US can create a new Ukraine in Japan, but the strength difference between Russia and China is too large for it to mean anything.

Russia struggles with quantity, while China not only has a much larger reserve, they also have a generational quality lead across the board.

With the gdp and production power of 1 Chinese province, even if Russia has a more efficient economy than most EU states, there's simply no way that Russia could realistically approach China in comprehensive national power. If Russia's strength is that they're not deindustrialized, then that strength applies even more for China.

So what puts Russia into a slow attritional war would not necessarily put China in the same situation.

If Japan is the initial aggressor by attacking Taiwan or elsewhere first, no one in the Chinese leadership would have any qualms about leveling major Japanese cities and civilian shelters.

KYli said:

Crook likes crook.

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Lol everyone in the discussion under this news reckon Guo is a MSS agent.

Aniah said:

I agree but I think using allies to bleed China would backfire really hard. If their allies lose, they lose the entire asia to China. China is also going to cut all trade with the US if they do this, how much higher inflation will the people take before a civil war starts in the states? There is no scenario where China loses to the small countries and any kind of bleeding would be minuscule compared to the bleeding the US would receive from zero trade with China.

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If their allies are about to lose, they'll come in. If their allies are merely on the back foot, they'll support from the back. The US would be fine trading Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei for Beijing and Shanghai. The economic devastation that would cause to East Asia would instantly elevate the West to top of the world, again. But they'll never give China the opportunity to actually finish the job and take over Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.

To make this back fire on this US would require China to have such overwhelming fire power that the US's vassals in Asia can't do any significant damage before they're defeated, even with the help of the US's bases and forces in the region. I don't think that's at all a realistic assessment of current Chinese capabilities. For this reason, it just doesn't make sense for China to take the bait.

Eventine said:

I have no interest in promoting Russian Chinese alliance or whatever it is that you think the purpose of this was. My argument is that the US is willing to go to war with China because it can get its vassals in the region to do the bleeding. All it needs to do is provide equipment & money, which sure, it's expensive, but it's nothing the US can't afford with its $900 billion military budget.

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OK, do pray tell who is going to do the bleeding. Who shares a land border with China?

Eventine said:

Ukraine is a great example of how the US operates. The country itself is bankrupt, decimated, much of its population fled or drafted, with little economy & industry beyond what aid money is able to sustain. If not for NATO, it'd have surrendered a long time ago because what would be the benefit of fighting on? But it's not surrendering, it's continuing to bleed, because NATO commands it to do so and whispers of victory and glory.

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Where is China's Ukraine? Where is a country size equivalent of Ukraine that China has no choice but to invade.

Eventine said:

The same "deal" will be given to Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, India, etc. as long as they take up the fight against China. And what I'm saying is that half of that list are dumb enough to take it, because their societies have been so infiltrated by Western media and influence that they think it's their duty to take up arms. This is the danger that China faces - not that it'll face the US, but that it'll face all of its vassals first, long before the US shows up as the "final boss".

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Taiwan will fall in matter of weeks. It is too close to China for US to support.

Philippine is not doing jackshit, they cannot stop 100 terrorists much less PLA. This is like saying "Cuba can tie down USA".

South Korea has North to deal with, China has their own proxy there.

India is not going to do anything useful with Himalaya in the way. China also has proxy of Pakistan to tie India down.

Japan is across the sea. You think Japan is going to win an offensive naval war without direct US involvement?

Eventine said:

In no scenario where China exhausts itself fighting some combination of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, is it a victory, because even if you win, you lose - your cities bombed, your infrastructure destroyed, your military weakened. All the while the US can sweep in after the fact to prevent China from gaining any rewards (ie occupation / surrender of the above countries) from the victory.

In such situations the only way to win is to not fight, because it costs the US very little to run these proxy wars, when compared to the horrors of war that will be visited upon China and the US's proxies.

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There is no Ukraine equivalent for China. You are delusional.

Eventine said:

If their allies are about to lose, they'll come in. If their allies are merely on the back foot, they'll support from the back. The US would be fine trading Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei for Beijing and Shanghai. The economic devastation that would cause to East Asia would instantly elevate the West to top of the world, again. But they'll never give China the opportunity to actually finish the job and take over Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.

To make this back fire on this US would require China to have such overwhelming fire power that the US's vassals in Asia can't do any significant damage before they're defeated, even with the help of the US's bases and forces in the region. I don't think that's at all a realistic assessment of current Chinese capabilities. For this reason, it just doesn't make sense for China to take the bait.

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US can't even get Tsai to declare independence to trigger something like an Ukraine type situation for China, what makes you think the other even looser allies will volunteer to be the first into the breech?

Let's take the strongest of the lot: Japan. Has either Japan or US done anything about the 24/7 patrol around Diaoyu Islands by CCG? This is one thing that's clearly covered under article 5 of US-Japan Security Alliance. Yet instead of dealing with this problem right in their face they talk about Taiwan and SCS to make the problem seem more distant.

Why not go ahead with this and we can have a proper war and see just how good PLARF's missiles are. Instead they've opted to do a lot of talk to make it seem like they're doing something without actually doing anything.

Eventine said:

There's no such thing as a war with Japan that lasts a week. Even if you defeat their navy in a week, you'd have to invade or embargo them into a surrender. Perfect opportunity for the US to create a new Ukraine through submarine warfare and getting the Japanese to fight house to house.

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Then this is not Ukraine scenario anymore. If American submarine fires on Chinese military it is a declaration of war. Are you seeing American navy attacking Russia directly?

Second, China is not going to invade Japan like Russia did on Ukraine. You are going to need Japan to shoot China first on offence. When that happens North Korea will enter the war, and unlike China North Korea has not announced no nuclear first use...

TK3600 said:

So where is China's Ukraine, a country strong enough and located close enough, that China has no choice but to invade?

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China is being baited over Taiwan, but Taiwan isn't going to fight alone. That's what's happening right now - the building of a security alliance in East Asia for the purpose of starting a proxy war over Taiwan.

All the latest news are building up to this. Yoon's election, Marcos Jr.'s election, the Move Forward Party's election - all of these are pieces of a larger whole. Japan and South Korea making peace with each other, Yoon's minstrel submission to the US, Marcos Jr.'s about turn on China; why do you think these are all happening at once? Coincidence? Liberal wave?

No. This is the US activating its assets in East Asia. Preparing the field.

Eventine said:

China is being baited over Taiwan, but Taiwan isn't going to fight alone. That's what's happening right now - the building of a security alliance in East Asia for the purpose of starting a proxy war over Taiwan.

All the latest news are building up to this. Yoon's election, Marcos Jr.'s election, the Move Forward Party's election - all of these are pieces of a larger whole. Japan and South Korea making peace with each other, Yoon's minstrel submission to the US, Marcos Jr.'s about turn on China; why do you think these are all happening at once? Coincidence? Liberal wave?

No. This is the US activating its assets in East Asia. Preparing the field.

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Again, where is China's Ukraine. South Korea has North to deal with. China can do the same thing as US and make it a proxy war. North Korean will do the bleeding, Chinese will back it with economy. Repeating the same shit do not prove your point.

Eventine said:

China is being baited over Taiwan, but Taiwan isn't going to fight alone. That's what's happening right now - the building of a security alliance in East Asia for the purpose of starting a proxy war over Taiwan.

All the latest news are building up to this. Yoon's election, Marcos Jr.'s election, the Move Forward Party's election - all of these are pieces of a larger whole. Japan and South Korea making peace with each other, Yoon's minstrel submission to the US, Marcos Jr.'s about turn on China; why do you think these are all happening at once? Coincidence? Liberal wave?

No. This is the US activating its assets in East Asia. Preparing the field.

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So are you saying that Korea Japan Philippines and Thailand will actively attack china over Taiwan or just support from the back like Ukraine? I'm just curious of your thought process.