If the CIA is interfering and MSS is not countering them in a Chinese territory, that is a problem. Forget peaceful reunification when a pro-independence party is dominating Taiwan politics.
I look at non-interference policy regarding Taiwan as naive just like the minimum nuclear warheads policy was naive.
How does one conduct and counter election interference? Via the media and local law enforcement. It’s an idiots game to try election interference without control of the media and active co-operation of local law enforcement.
That is why one of the first primary targets of the Maiden coup was law enforcement agencies and personnel after they took power. The massive purges of law enforcement and replacement with sympathisers and total control of the media was what allowed subsequent NED election interference to get Zelensky elected.
To try to engage in election interference without any powers over the media of the target audience and thoroughly compromised local law enforcement is just a waste of money and resources. Case in point the HK riots. How much did that really achieve for the CIA and NED in the end?
The other major factor you are not considering is that the kinds of massive overt election interference campaign you are thinking of is only really worthwhile as a work up for a takeover. You can game the system to get a result, but that can be easily and quickly overturned at the next elections or through massive civil disobedience campaigns that the CIA would inevitably organise and fund. Unless you have the hard power to go all in afterwards to cement your gains, it’s just a waste of time.
There is also the optics element to consider, as it would be a bad look if China started AR by putting a puppet in power that the people revolted against.
Instead, I see the MSS being the ones of organise and fund a massive civil disobedience campaign as the opening move of AR. The aim would be to topple the sitting government, or force them to send troops onto the streets to try to put down the protests. Agents and moles within the RoC Army would take their troops onto the streets and join with the protestors instead of suppressing them, and that would force the government into basically starting a civil war where they send loyal troops to engage the ‘disloyal’ ones on the streets in open combat. That would give Beijing all the justification it needs to move in to end the chaos and save civilian lives.
