Miscellaneous News

Sardaukar20 said:

I just think that the US is acting in dangerous, half-insane desperation at this point in time. The US, under the senile Joe Biden administration had delivered on almost all of its major threats so far. They had threatened to: impose the ultimate sanctions on Russia, blow up the Nord-Stream pipelines, send heavy military equipment to Ukraine, send Pelosi to Taiwan, and shoot-down a Chinese balloon.

Biden at this point had not yet threatened to go directly to war with Russia. But Biden had threatened to defend Taiwan against China. What exactly does he mean by that, we don't know for sure. But the Chinese top brass should not take any chances. Exercise, and be ready for war with the US. We don't know how stupid the the US can get, especially the Republican stupids, who have successfully pushed Biden into doing reckless anti-China stuff. The moment China see some new developments in US military deployments around it's neighborhood, it should start to go into a semi-wartime economy, like Russia in recent times. Time to stockpile on materiel, manpower, ammunition, and emergency stuff. China can mobilize for war much faster than any 'democratic nation'. But it's better to be safe than sorry. The US can no longer be trusted to be rational these days.

Remember that there were multiple papers in the US, dating back to 2016, setting the date for war with China by 2025. 2025 is that magic year for war that the US is telling everyone. Remember a recent memo written by USAF general, Mike Minihan, calling for war with China by 2025, and saying that the US should 'aim for the head'. Was that a call for nuclear first strike? We don't know for sure. What we do know is that the US is not making the same type of threats against Russia. I think because Russia has a declared nuclear arsenal powerful enough for the US to rule out any nuclear first strike. What China needs to do very soon, is to deal with this perception by the US that it can win a nuclear war with China. There are big progress on the hardware front, but China needs an official declaration to the US. Tell them that China's nuclear arsenal has been updated, and it's not trivial. No need to give numbers, but tell them that it is big enough to end the whole of the USA. And if the US tries any decapitation strike, China can still respond with a devastating second strike. China does not have a history of bluffing, so the US will have to take this threat seriously.

Is it better for China to not get into an arms race? Absolutely. But the arms race of the previous Cold War was more about power and dominance by both superpowers. For China, this current arms race is about survival, not domination. There can be no greater justification for an arms race than that.

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US itself already knows first strike is impossible. But they're still going to threaten invasion because China is an existential threat to them.

Some random US general saying "aim for the head" to his troops, interpretating that as calling for nuclear suicide pact is as stupid as when US interpretate Chinese officials using expressions to literally mean they will crush the bones of their enemies. Its just... Lol.

The "problem" is that both China and US has something to gain despite they both being MAD capable nuclear powers, so there is hopium on both sides that nukes won't be launched.

US believes it can take Taiwan province. It has begun the irreversible process of claiming the country, similar to when Russia began claiming oblasts in the Donbass.

China meanwhile believes that if an US invasion is repelled, American non core territory and US Co-aggressors in Asia will be up for grabs.

US will become irrelevant and eventually economically ground down by China's bloc if they don't win and capture Chinese territory in an attempt to reverse the current trend of history.

On the flip side, China is blessed with economy, industry and resources, but it is not blessed in terms of having an empire. A blatant US invasion is the perfect justification for China to acquire the final pieces to become undisputed world leader.

Hence China has the no first use decision so they can smash incoming invaders with precision and hypersonic missiles guilt free. And US is very unlikely to use nukes either, in a war where they are the attackers, using nukes and incurring MAD would be extremely politically untenable.

Think about how Putin doesn't use nukes even despite Ukraine being non nuclear.

Now think of the backlash if Americans realize that Biden intends to kill them all tomorrow because of a war America themselves started over some stupid Chinese oblast 10000kms away. You'd see military mutiny and mass lynching.

ansy1968 said:

Bro to add on your point an arm race will benefit China because:

1) they don't have to replace and maintain a lot of legacy weapon

2) it can stimulate it's economy

3) with Escalatory Dominance means a lot of leverage and hard power which will translate to soft power, as Teddy Roosevelt use to say "Speak softly BUT carry a BIG Stick"

4) which will stretch the already overextend US military assets which in turn may forced it's vassal to hedge, questioning the reliability of American commitment and promises as what we had seen from Vietnam up to present (Afghanistan and Ukraine)

5) it will bankrupt the US as they reach Imperial Over reach. They can't fight a two front war much less a near peer opponent.

6) with limited resources spend to boost infrastructure , education and scientific innovation, it may affect the social fiber and quality of life of most American as it misappropriate its spending instead of investing for the future.

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Good points. Though many anti-China folks, and pacifists will dislike our arguments for a stronger Chinese military, China is a special case. It had experienced the cold hard reality of history. China paid dearly for the mistake of not building a sufficiently powerful military to protect itself. Even today, many of China's neighbours still covet pieces of Chinese territories on land, and at sea. Some even covet entire provinces and regions. The US Empire coming from afar and setting up bases close to China is yet another major threat. China cannot hide behind oceans for defense. Without a strong military, it is a relatively easy nation to invade, and many have invaded China in the past.

I would also add that, unlike the Soviet Union, China did a good job of building a powerful and vibrant civilian industry. Hence, as the Chinese military spending grows, civilian life is not terribly affected. The Soviet Union focused too much into the arms race, neglecting its civilian industry and creating fatal civilian discontent towards its end. The US in recent years is also falling into this trap, but their situation can potentially get much worse. Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, North Korea, and India are other nations that have invested more into defense at the expense of their civilian economies. So we can see that their civilian lives are not too rosy. China had built up a very strong civilian economy, before building up its military economy. Hence China had avoided a potential pitfall in an arms race. This is why China is in a stronger position than the US in a future arms race.

Nobo said:

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I wanna know the number of nuclear warheads. In case of conflict, you must have the capability to terraform the environment of native america inside out & top to bottom . MAD is an outdated concept. Anything less than 20000 warheads isn't to my liking. Russia too should target around 10000 warheads.

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The most important is how many nukes have platforms to launch them, not the number of warheads.

Both Russia and America have tons of warheads but in actuality, the ready number of US warheads ia about 1600, and for Russia, 1500.

China in 30 years or so ago indicated they have about 300 such ready nukes, by now, anything between 500-2000 is a possible estimate.

Lol, new record again, 3rd year straight of record breaking trade between US and China.

China Ministry of Defence confirmed that China rejected high level military talks between US and China.

bajingan said:

I agree with everything you wrote, except for nuke first strike, the u.s has no ability to first strike to eliminate all of China nuclear forces both in the past or present, simply due to the fact that China has ICBMs hidden in the 5000km long underground great wall, this will guarantee PLA second strike ability, i don't think the u.s can survive losing 10 major population centers, therefore MAD already guaranteed decades ago, let alone now

Does the americans know 100% sure how many ICBMs are in those tunnels? Highly unlikely

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I don't think more than 20 people in China even know how many ICBMs are in those tunnels

antiterror13 said:

I don't think more than 20 people in China even know how many ICBMs are in those tunnels

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Tunnels are more expensive than ICBM. Based on the amount of tunnels one can somewhat approximate the amount of nukes, because no one would have a lot of expensive tunnels for no reason.

The problem is, likely no one except the SSF knows how much tunnel there is besides "much".

Biscuits said:

Tunnels are more expensive than ICBM. Based on the amount of tunnels one can somewhat approximate the amount of nukes, because no one would have a lot of expensive tunnels for no reason.

The problem is, likely no one except the SSF knows how much tunnel there is besides "much".

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What is SSF ?

jwnz said:

Does the ROC constitution allow the ruling party to declare independence, or contain any provisions to even do so? Likely wise does DPP have the required mandate to do so?

I doubt DPP is that stupid to declare independence outright and would likely get challenged by the opposition and / or the court. Besides, I imagine China would intervene via the back channel well in advance, should it become a real possibility.

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The DPP wouldn't. But what about an unexpected NPP victory?

Temstar said:

No it does not, in fact to do so unilaterally would be considered unconstitutional and possibly treason (as you're basically declaring ROC is dead and replaced by something else). In order for them to declare independence they have to do it through a referendum.

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There's precedence. Mao's declaration of the PRC was not exactly constitutional under the Chinese (ROC) constitution at the time, was it?

The most probable scenario for a Taiwan war is a colour revolution against a KMT president or a similar revolutionary movement. It almost happened before in the "sunflower movement". That's why most of the strategies discussed for such a war are not realistic while people imagine the scenario promoted by the US that China at some point just decides to start a war and attacks without justification.

What China needs is a way to quickly deal with a revolutionary government on Taiwan before it can be recognised by any great power. There may be almost no warning, no preparations to change a forgotten legal document. Countries like Lithuania would rush to be the first country to recognise the new state and try to draw the EU into the fight. The ROC military may support the new government. In such a scenario, bombs will be hitting kinmen on day 1

bajingan said:

I agree with everything you wrote, except for nuke first strike, the u.s has no ability to first strike to eliminate all of China nuclear forces both in the past or present, simply due to the fact that China has ICBMs hidden in the 5000km long underground great wall, this will guarantee PLA second strike ability, i don't think the u.s can survive losing 10 major population centers, therefore MAD already guaranteed decades ago, let alone now

Does the americans know 100% sure how many ICBMs are in those tunnels? Highly unlikely

Click to expand...

Biscuits said:

US itself already knows first strike is impossible. But they're still going to threaten invasion because China is an existential threat to them.

Some random US general saying "aim for the head" to his troops, interpretating that as calling for nuclear suicide pact is as stupid as when US interpretate Chinese officials using expressions to literally mean they will crush the bones of their enemies. Its just... Lol.

The "problem" is that both China and US has something to gain despite they both being MAD capable nuclear powers, so there is hopium on both sides that nukes won't be launched.

US believes it can take Taiwan province. It has begun the irreversible process of claiming the country, similar to when Russia began claiming oblasts in the Donbass.

China meanwhile believes that if an US invasion is repelled, American non core territory and US Co-aggressors in Asia will be up for grabs.

US will become irrelevant and eventually economically ground down by China's bloc if they don't win and capture Chinese territory in an attempt to reverse the current trend of history.

On the flip side, China is blessed with economy, industry and resources, but it is not blessed in terms of having an empire. A blatant US invasion is the perfect justification for China to acquire the final pieces to become undisputed world leader.

Hence China has the no first use decision so they can smash incoming invaders with precision and hypersonic missiles guilt free. And US is very unlikely to use nukes either, in a war where they are the attackers, using nukes and incurring MAD would be extremely politically untenable.

Think about how Putin doesn't use nukes even despite Ukraine being non nuclear.

Now think of the backlash if Americans realize that Biden intends to kill them all tomorrow because of a war America themselves started over some stupid Chinese oblast 10000kms away. You'd see military mutiny and mass lynching.

Click to expand...

Let's not be ignorant. The US has a nuclear war plan for China today. It is a first-strike-only plan involving primarily Trident submarines and bombers. The US has no real second-strike plan for China, because it knows that China has no nukes close enough to the US to threaten a first strike. All of the Cold War era declassified documents of various US nuclear war plans on China are first-strike only plans. Why is the US so enthusiastically reviving the idea of forward deploying nuclear weapons so close to China's shores? So that the US can regain the capability to hit Chinese cities within as short a flight time as possible. The US defense circles have floated many times the idea of a decapitation strike on China (and also Russia) in the hopium that that would halt or stall their 2nd strike response. Russia replied to this insane idea by saying that their Perimeter system is still intact for such eventuality. China had not yet declared any counter plan for this. That doesn't mean that China doesn't have it, but the US takes this silence as a sign of weakness.

There is something even worse. American defense circles today are bringing up the idea that they could somehow use low-yield nuclear weapons on China with impunity. They theorized that China could not reply US low-yield nuke strikes because China does not have equivalent tactical nukes, and that China won't use their strategic weapons in fear of a full-scale American strategic nuclear retaliation. Because America has a much larger strategic nuclear arsenal than China. This is the insane stuff being discussed in the US right now by people in the government, and the general public. And those low-yield nukes are real. There are W76-2 low yield warheads mounted in Trident missiles, and B-61 Mod 12 bombs (on low setting) in full production. Those brand new low-yield nukes have lowered the general threshold for America to use nukes. This is just not good for humanity.

My main issue is that, America is currently not taking the Chinese nuclear threat serious enough. There are still debates as to whether current Chinese nuclear stockpiles can deliver true MAD to America. This is not a good limbo to be in for China. The current declared stockpiles is not having the same deterrence effect that it had decades ago. Because right now, there are idiot Americans thinking that exchanging Los Angeles for Shanghai, to burn China down is somehow 'worth it'. You'll be surprised at how idiotic and gullible Americans think about nuclear war with China. The American elites just don't care. They have allowed more than 1 million of its citizens to die of Covid without batting an eye. They won't care about losing millions more to nuclear fire, as long as it's an 'acceptable' price for them. In the sick minds of the American jingoists, that in a general nuclear exchange, China will burn more than the US in the end. I am aware that China is not sitting on its laurels, but it is about time that they could come up with some serious statement to say that China can do MAD now, and that any nuclear attack, no matter how small will be replied with a full strategic retaliation. So don't try anything.