—Russia is more dependent on oil becoming a Petrostate if it hasn’t already. Meanwhile Deindustrialization is actually happening in other important sectors.
—Russian Central Bank expects an 8-10% drop in GDP this year. Year on year GDP dropped 4% already in the 2nd quarter. Consumer demand dropped by more than 10%. Manufacturing slumped by 4%. Third quarter 2022 is likely to be even worse.
—Putin has nothing to smile about except oil prices. Even here he’s likely to face competition as the Iran Nuclear Deal is likely to be signed; opening up another source of Oil for Europe.
i wouldnt trust any kind of numbers economic or otherwise coming out from Russia not just recent but even older. As government have incentive making currency and stock markets up and down depend on circumstances. but Russia economic power is much more than what statistics shows and that increase further due to synergies with Arabic world. you have to look at circumstantial evidence over the years to properly analyze it. traditional measures cannot capture it.
The same day bids opening of FIFA where Russia and Qatar won host of 2018 and 2022.
The reception of Russian delegation at Saudi King funeral in 2015 at the time it felt like they know each other for ages.
When Toyota Launched LC300 land cruiser launched in Middleast last year. A youtube video showed up in Russian language with large number of these vehicles parked at vehicle storage site (infact the most LC300 parked at one place) in Kazakhstan same day as grand show in big market of Middleast.
here recent example of out of normal Tokayev meeting Putin in Sochi. This kind of meeting you only do when you know person well and that person is not dumb that need help of delegation to analyze information.
