Miscellaneous News

pmc said:

i am not sure how you came to this conclusion. Russia has always supported Arabs and Afrikan when they confronted West. start with recognition of Saudia against Europeans powers. if Stalin was not in power. US/USSR/Arab relationship history would haven been different. look at 1956 Suez crises. this alone gives Arabs leverage on Europe-Asia trade.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1363033960406786049

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The relationship between the USSR and the Arab world during the cold war has nothing to do with what Arabs or Russians do with their money which was your point. Both of your oligarchs buy assets in the west.

The reason Arab states are weak and so dependent on the west is because of the constant religious/cultural bickering. This has been capitalised on, and in some cases, exacerbated by the west and lead to decades of exploitation - the old "divide and conquer"

The situation we're currently in is quite rare, there seems to be a relative peace in the middle east. Against all expectations the Yemen ceasefire has held, and Iranian leaders are meeting with senior Gulf Arab nations. This was unthinkable a year ago.

I would attribute it to Russian diplomacy and mediation, Arabs are finally realising all they need to do to get rid of Israel and western imperialism is to stop fighting for a year or so and collaborate with Russia and China.

Done correctly the impact on the west would be seismic and would make the current western crisis seem like nothing.

Now for you to tell us something about how germanic engineering will somehow overcome that.

Important milestone

supersnoop said:

I posted in the Strategic thread, but I have some additional thoughts.

I absolutely do not see how the US can "win" with this move unless China lets her land completely unmolested, which I find highly unlikely.

Assuming actually blowing her plane out of the sky is out of the question (which would almost assuredly trigger a war)
In what scenario does can the US play up as a 'win'?

1. Armed overflight of PLAAF or PLAN aircraft over Taiwan with no response.
PRC is in de-facto control of TW airspace

2. Armed overflight of PLAAF with ROCAF response, no combat
ROCAF is still in control, but PLAAF has the initiative

3. Armed overflight and combat engagement.
ROCAF will be handcuffed because should they initiate, then it can be seen as a declaration of war.

4. Any US escort
Similar to above. On top of this, should a US aircraft be shot down, the US is not in a good position to start a military conflict, this would give the impression that China can shootdown US aircraft over TW at their will. An armed US fighter would almost be a gift to the PRC in this scenario as it gives some fireworks without blowing up Pelosi.

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Chinese planes can be shot down by either Taiwan or the US. What will China do then? Are they really ready for war? Probably they will just seethe a bit like they do every time and back off.

nixdorf said:

Chinese planes can be shot down by either Taiwan or the US. What will China do then? Are they really ready for war? Probably they will just seethe a bit like they do every time and back off.

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Same question for the US and its dogs. Are they ready for war?

nixdorf said:

Chinese planes can be shot down by either Taiwan or the US. What will China do then? Are they really ready for war? Probably they will just seethe a bit like they do every time and back off.

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Nah, when I see the US military biting their nails down to the nubs, I can tell it's a lot more than China "seething."

Abominable said:

The relationship between the USSR and the Arab world during the cold war has nothing to do with what Arabs or Russians do with their money which was your point. Both of your oligarchs buy assets in the west.

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That USSR history helped Russia to quickly improved relationships with Arab world. it is this history that is influencing events and Russians are enjoying Arab wealth. i am sure both sides are sharing information about joint investment strategies as both can have unique information as there people on corporate boards for long time.

Abominable said:

The reason Arab states are weak and so dependent on the west is because of the constant religious/cultural bickering. This has been capitalised on, and in some cases, exacerbated by the west and lead to decades of exploitation - the old "divide and conquer"

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I dont see how Arab states are weak. they know there interests and they use religion/culture influence to increase to it.

Abominable said:

The situation we're currently in is quite rare, there seems to be a relative peace in the middle east. Against all expectations the Yemen ceasefire has held, and Iranian leaders are meeting with senior Gulf Arab nations. This was unthinkable a year ago.

I would attribute it to Russian diplomacy and mediation, Arabs are finally realising all they need to do to get rid of Israel and western imperialism is to stop fighting for a year or so and collaborate with Russia and China.

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Middleast immigration is towards Europe where Eurabia will be created. infact it is better for Arab interests that Europeans emigrate towards Israel that will make more space for people from Global south in Europe.
practically all countries are in Europe for population decline and that before Ukraine crises.

Abominable said:

Done correctly the impact on the west would be seismic and would make the current western crisis seem like nothing.

Now for you to tell us something about how germanic engineering will somehow overcome that.

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Germanic engineering thrive in this crises as Germany impose gas and electric sharing on Europe and than it will be German engineering that will boost rest of world Oil and Gas sectors. Germans can work in other countries for while and it is also better for Europe as Europe water and energy crise inhibit industrial production.

seems more inflation coming if this war continue.

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GORZOW WIELKOPOLSKI, Poland, July 25 (Reuters) - Construction sites, factory assembly lines and warehouses across central Europe are scrambling to fill vacancies after tens of thousands of Ukrainian men left their blue-collar jobs to return home after Russia invaded their country.

Ukrainian workers had flocked to central Europe in the past decade - drawn by higher wages and aided by an easing of visa requirements - filling jobs that weren't highly paid enough for local workers in construction, the automotive sector, and heavy industry.
Reuters spoke to 14 company executives, recruiters, industry bodies and economists in Poland and the Czech Republic who said the departure of Ukrainian workers was leading to rising costs and delays in manufacturing orders and construction work.

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9dashline said:

When exactly in August is all this supposed to take place?

To your last point, if the US sends fighter jets to escort Pelosi and Pompous all the way to TW, are you speculating China will attempt to shoot down the US 5th gen fighters vs rather than shooting down the transport aircraft?

If China lets US fly its military aircraft overland of TW whilsts so far having refrained from doing so itself then I dont consider this acceptable.... it would be slap in the face if China lets this slide

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It's not confirmed, but no one (definitely not Pelosi herself) has denied a possible visit.

Type of fighter is irrelevant, but I highly doubt they will send 5th gen fighters for conversations' sake.

As you said, it would be unacceptable to allow US armed (or arms capable) aircraft to fly into Taiwan. They have previously allowed unarmed military transports. So yes, I think China would shoot down such an aircraft flying over Taiwan if they do not back off.

This would be an exceedingly risky tactic for the American side because China would have very little to lose with such an action.

If America indulges the inevitable call for blood, it is not really in a good position to wage a war due to the economy and the war in Ukraine that has sucked up various military assets.

If they don't engage, then this is an extremely bad look. How can they continue to say they will support Taiwan in a war if they aren't even defending themselves?

The US can try to escort with unarmed fighters and say this is the action of a murderous regime if a shootdown happens, but when it comes down to it, Taiwan even by the American's own calculation is Chinese territory. Hard to start a direct war over someone else's property. Again, if unwilling to start a war, then you literally sent someone on a suicide mission for nothing.

The best the US can do is send a plane, and the PLAAF merely flares/chaffs it. Even then, it is not without risk, airborne collision, mechanical failure. If Pelosi lands safely, then you can try to sell it as a win. "Look at the danger we went through to prove our friendship!" However, very risky to send a high ranking official on such a mission without a clear goal other than "embarrassment".

ZeEa5KPul said:

Nah, when I see the US military biting their nails down to the nubs, I can tell it's a lot more than China "seething."

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Not the US military. It’s more like the Western public. Those guys in the military command already know. The idiots on twitter, Reddit, etc are the ones whose going to be malding and screeching their ass off. They think China is bluffing and won’t do anything but may only fly past the mid zone a little. I even seem highly upvoted comments that if China does anything then the US should destroy the three gorge dam because China can’t and won’t do anything about it.

nixdorf said:

Chinese planes can be shot down by either Taiwan or the US. What will China do then? Are they really ready for war? Probably they will just seethe a bit like they do every time and back off.

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See above.
It is not China that has to be ready for war. For the US or Taiwan to shoot first, that is declaration of independence, a Fort Sumter moment. China shooting first is just defense of sovereign territory.