Why India is losing ground over Bangladesh and Myanmar to regional rivals
Pakistan and China have been drawing closer to Bangladesh and Myanmar in areas such as defence and trade at India’s expense, analysts say
is facing multiple geopolitical challenges in the region as
and
show signs of drifting away from New Delhi’s orbit amid its long-standing disputes with
and China.
Dhaka has been drawing closer to Islamabad following the downfall in 2024 of its former prime minister
, who had close ties with Delhi during her rule, while China has continued to maintain its influence in Myanmar since the junta in Naypyidaw ousted the elected government in a coup in 2021, according to analysts.
The strategic realignments come as Bangladesh’s
is set for February 12, while Myanmar is in the midst of holding its multi-phase polls.
Sreeradha Datta, an academic from the Jindal School of International Affairs at OP Jindal Global University, said India faced greater complications in managing its relations with Myanmar than with Bangladesh.
“While [India] has always worked with the junta and the establishment, civil society always wants India to engage more deeply to dilute China’s influence in Myanmar, which is not easily possible,” Datta said.
The Hasina factor
Ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh have improved since interim leader Muhammad Yunus was appointed by Dhaka in 2024, with both sides stepping up diplomatic, trade and defence talks. Among their discussions, Islamabad is reportedly planning to sell its Chinese-made J-17 jets to Bangladesh.
Umer Karim, a political science and international studies researcher at the University of Birmingham, said Pakistan was conducting “blank cheque diplomacy” with Bangladesh after Hasina’s ousting.
With emotions running high in Bangladesh against Delhi and Hasina, who is in self-exile in India, Pakistan is seeking to exploit an opening by wooing Dhaka, according to Karim.
A total of 1,400 people might have been killed during protests against Hasina’s government in 2024, according to a report by the UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. India has not handed Hasina over to Bangladesh despite Dhaka’s repeated requests to extradite the former leader and a court sentencing her to death in absentia.
To ease tensions between India and Bangladesh, Delhi would have to resolve the dilemma over Hasina, Karim said. With many young people in Bangladesh viewing Pakistan in a more positive light, political parties in Dhaka were more inclined to increase their engagement with Islamabad regardless of the election outcome, he added.
“In the current context of Indian politics, Bangladesh may further tilt towards Pakistan and China to strengthen its defence partnership to balance against any future tensions with India.”
China’s influence over Myanmar
At the same time, India is becoming more wary of China’s growing influence in Myanmar since the 2021 coup.
China has been a long-time provider of weapons and training to Myanmar’s military. Both countries have stepped up engagements, including the visit by Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit last year at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.
Angshuman Choudhury, a doctoral candidate at the National University of Singapore and King’s College London, said India was hoping that its long-standing ties with the junta could counter China’s influence over Myanmar. Delhi should also reach out to various ethnic militias fighting in the Myanmar civil war to retain its clout in the country, he added.
“It likely sees this relationship with the military regime as a way to maintain a stable strategic footprint in an otherwise unstable region. However, this may not be enough to balance Chinese influence. Beijing continues to maintain strong relations with both the junta and several powerful ethnic armed organisations in Myanmar.”
The jousting for influence in Myanmar comes as India and China embark on
in the Southeast Asian country.
Among India’s involvements is the development of a US$484 million corridor to link Sittwe port in Rakhine via sea, river and road to Kolkata and elsewhere. As part of the proposed China–Myanmar Economic Corridor, China is investing and developing multi-billion-dollar rail and road projects linking the Yunnan province all the way to the town of Kyaukphyu in Rakhine.
Curbing India’s regional ambitions
The electoral outcomes in Myanmar and Bangladesh are expected to be a major factor in determining how the two countries will calibrate their relations with China and India, according to analysts.
In the case of Myanmar, Choudhury said China would continue to have an edge over India after the junta-organised election.
“The new government that the junta will form after the election will be closer to China than India, not least because the former helped the military stabilise the northern theatre [of the civil war] in preparation for the so-called election. India’s direct involvement in such domains, however, remains limited,” he added.
Former veteran Indian diplomat K.P. Fabian, whose country postings included Sri Lanka, Iran and Qatar, said Delhi’s policy of deepening its ties with neighbouring countries had come short in recent years. In the case of Bangladesh, India was over-reliant on Hasina while it had limited influence over the junta in Myanmar, he added.
China sees India as an obstacle to Beijing emerging as an Asian leader and not an enemy, unlike Pakistan, but Beijing and Islamabad are nonetheless keen to curb Delhi’s regional ambitions, according to Fabian.
“What India needs to recognise is Pakistan and China’s deep nexus and take into account that both have got into the mindset that it is in their interest to gang up against India,” he said.
Jon Danilowicz, a retired American diplomat who has served in Bangladesh, said Beijing would likely have a better chance than Islamabad to pursue closer ties with Dhaka. The new government in Bangladesh that would take charge following the election would be more cautious in its approach towards Pakistan compared with China, he added.
However, Pakistan had made great strides in its outreach towards Bangladesh at the expense of India, Danilowicz said.
“This is the high-water mark for Pakistan-Bangladesh relations. After the election, there will be a new equilibrium. India is not going to regain the position it had when Hasina was in power,” Danilowicz said.
Nilanthi Samaranayake, an adjunct fellow at the East-West Centre in Washington, however, said that views of Bangladesh drawing closer towards Pakistan and China while drifting away from India might have been overstated.
India still wielded regional leverage, citing how Delhi was able to improve its ties with the Maldives and Sri Lanka despite past hiccups, she added.
“Dhaka seeks to have as diverse a range of partners as possible, but understands the limits of ties when India has a redline on a particular type of interaction. Recent indications are that India is bringing a similar approach to Bangladesh in its leader engagement as the election approaches,” Samaranayake said.
