India will be kept afloat but more in supplicant state. it still needed. Just look at Trump statements how he treat India. The only trigger that will accelerate balkanize process is when Gulf are more confident about Afghans.The scenario you've proposed is completely reasonable, even if it's impossible to predict with much certainty if, when and how India will balkanize.
Not sure if the name India will persist, especially should more Indians realize that the term was effectively imposed upon their ancestors by Europeans.
Let's consider a slightly more imminent question: if India does balkanize sooner rather than later, say before the half way point of this century, the year 2050, what will likely trigger such a process?
I already posted several links about earlier division of India in this thread but reading and understanding is not for every one.
This period (1929) when US was essentially in Great depression and hardly need Oil. (Gulf State of Bahrain).
