This is actually a somewhat worrying development to me.
Rare earth minerals are not actually all that rare in terms of global distribution. It’s just in found in ultra low concentrations in the soil, so you need really advanced refining and processing tech to make it economical viable.
But the thing is, if you throw economic viability out the window and just spend what it takes to make it, it’s entirely possible to set up an industry to make enough for military needs within a few years.
You will get increasing pressure on US weapons manufacturers for maybe 1-2 years as they run down existing stocks until you reach peak disruption where it might get so bad that they start to struggle to meet normal production demands. But eventually as few rare earth processing facilities start to produce products, that pressure will start to ease, and in 10-20 years time the west will be self sufficient for their rare earth needs.
That means China thinks war is very likely to break out within the next few years that enacting sanctions now will yield maximum damage and disruption to the U.S. MIC in those years before their alternative rare earth production can come on stream.
There are so many other cards China can play, that making this move as its first more looks like war prep to me. And it’s not a subtle message either. So I think this is Beijing sending Trump a not so veiled warning that this time around, China is ready for both a trade war and a hot war.
The biggest question mark is whether Trump and his sycophants are smart enough to get the message.
