It's easy to forget that when China control >90% of global production and processing, it also means China >90% of global know-how in how to do so.This is actually a somewhat worrying development to me.
Rare earth minerals are not actually all that rare in terms of global distribution. It’s just in found in ultra low concentrations in the soil, so you need really advanced refining and processing tech to make it economical viable.
But the thing is, if you throw economic viability out the window and just spend what it takes to make it, it’s entirely possible to set up an industry to make enough for military needs within a few years.
You will get increasing pressure on US weapons manufacturers for maybe 1-2 years as they run down existing stocks until you reach peak disruption where it might get so bad that they start to struggle to meet normal production demands. But eventually as few rare earth processing facilities start to produce products, that pressure will start to ease, and in 10-20 years time the west will be self sufficient for their rare earth needs.
That means China thinks war is very likely to break out within the next few years that enacting sanctions now will yield maximum damage and disruption to the U.S. MIC in those years before their alternative rare earth production can come on stream.
There are so many other cards China can play, that making this move as its first more looks like war prep to me. And it’s not a subtle message either. So I think this is Beijing sending Trump a not so veiled warning that this time around, China is ready for both a trade war and a hot war.
The biggest question mark is whether Trump and his sycophants are smart enough to get the message.
Even if the US is willing to pay any price to build their own production, and even if there are no confidential technologies that only China have, it'll still take them years to train enough people to make it work
If there are trade secrets, then it becomes similar to lithography, except US don't even have the education system to produce talents to figure it out
Another way to look at this is, China has already put gallium and others on export control for more than a year, during that time US companies can and has applied for permits to import, and China has been granting them.
So the decision to enact this ban was made after gathering data on how much ability US had in finding alternatives, which is evidently not much.
I agree China is preparing for a hot war, there are plenty of other indicators, but in this case it's more a indication that China is switch from defensive to offensive posture in the trade and tech war.
Historically, when China switches from defending against barbarian raids to going on the offensive, China goes for annihilation.


