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9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
This is actually a somewhat worrying development to me.

Rare earth minerals are not actually all that rare in terms of global distribution. It’s just in found in ultra low concentrations in the soil, so you need really advanced refining and processing tech to make it economical viable.

But the thing is, if you throw economic viability out the window and just spend what it takes to make it, it’s entirely possible to set up an industry to make enough for military needs within a few years.

You will get increasing pressure on US weapons manufacturers for maybe 1-2 years as they run down existing stocks until you reach peak disruption where it might get so bad that they start to struggle to meet normal production demands. But eventually as few rare earth processing facilities start to produce products, that pressure will start to ease, and in 10-20 years time the west will be self sufficient for their rare earth needs.

That means China thinks war is very likely to break out within the next few years that enacting sanctions now will yield maximum damage and disruption to the U.S. MIC in those years before their alternative rare earth production can come on stream.

There are so many other cards China can play, that making this move as its first more looks like war prep to me. And it’s not a subtle message either. So I think this is Beijing sending Trump a not so veiled warning that this time around, China is ready for both a trade war and a hot war.

The biggest question mark is whether Trump and his sycophants are smart enough to get the message.
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Also, China cant afford to let US win the race to AGI first.... so that might also be the bigger reason, even without a hot war.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
Temstar said:
What good is Yoon hanging onto power by himself when everyone else is bailing out:
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Not resigning and getting cover from his party is just dragging down his whole party with him.
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Biden: Lady Kim, you don't want to see your husband lose his job right?

1733371215040.jpeg

This meme is too funny, had to share it.

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Cnet is having a blast, thanks to the free entertainment by our neighbours.
 
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BoraTas

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Temstar said:
What good is Yoon hanging onto power by himself when everyone else is bailing out:
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Not resigning and getting cover from his party is just dragging down his whole party with him.
Click to expand...
I am still shocked about what happened in South Korea. The guy for real tried to become a military dictator to cover his wife's and a few other guys' crimes. Like, what he expected? I feel for the spec ops guys that were deployed to the parliament. They were there to pretend they were obeying the order. Their commanders didn't even give them real guns. And they were withdrawn as soon as the parliament voted, without waiting for the president to lift the martial law.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Biden: Lady Kim, you don't want to see your husband lose his job right?
Click to expand...
It's not really convincing for Joe Biden to say this since he's about to lose his own job. In fact Joe losing probably had an effect on Yoon's current predicament.
On the other hand if it was Hunter Biden saying that line then we're talking. That's totally in character.

BoraTas said:
I am still shocked about what happened in South Korea. The guy for real tried to become a military dictator to cover his wife's and a few other guys' crimes. Like, what he expected? I feel for the spec ops guys that were deployed to the parliament. They were there to pretend they were obeying the order. Their commanders didn't even give them real guns. And they were withdrawn as soon as the parliament voted, without waiting for the president to lift the martial law.
Click to expand...
Yoon seems to have done some planning before hand. The guy that just resigned, the defence minister was Yoon's high school senior and Yoon might have placed him in that position with a mind on future coup, since the guy didn't have much standing in the military.

There are a few factors besides the defence minister that points to some degree of premeditation:
1. Although ill prepared, 707th arrived at the National Assembly Building very quickly after Yoon's announcement
2. Park An-su, the general in charge of the rapidly assembled Martial Law Command refused to announce martial law was withdrawn despite the 190-0 vote. He said he would only do so if the President give the order to stand down

It sounds to me like there are elements within the military that indeed wanted to re-enact 1979 and setup a junta government. There was actually a possibility that we could be standing here today discussing policy direction of the new 7th Republic if it wasn't for the fact that Yoon was incompetent at coup and lacked the military connection (ie the secret organisation Hanahoe) of Chun Doo-hwan.
 
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G

GulfLander

Captain
Registered Member
Temstar said:
It sounds to me like there are elements within the military that indeed wanted to re-enact 1979 and setup a junta government. There was actually a possibility that we could be standing here today discussing policy direction of the new 7th Republic if it wasn't for the fact that Yoon was incompetent at coup and lacked the military connection (ie the secret organisation Hanahoe) of Chun Doo-hwan.
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Isnt US military the "commander in chief" in SK military structure?

.....
"Trump meets Netanyahu’s wife near Mar-a-Lago as he seeks Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Trump is reportedly ‘more determined than ever’ to reach a ceasefire before taking office"

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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The fact that the US fails to condemn a literal military coup in SK is really telling. If it was any other non-US ally, US would already condemn and impose sanctions. The US spokesman does mental gymnastics to avoid condemning the martial law decree. What a joke.
 
C

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
It's not really convincing for Joe Biden to say this since he's about to lose his own job. In fact Joe losing probably had an effect on Yoon's current predicament.
On the other hand if it was Hunter Biden saying that line then we're talking. That's totally in character.


Yoon seems to have done some planning before hand. The guy that just resigned, the defence minister was Yoon's high school senior and Yoon might have placed him in that position with a mind on future coup, since the guy didn't have much standing in the military.

There are a few factors besides the defence minister that points to some degree of premeditation:
1. Although ill prepared, 707th arrived at the National Assembly Building very quickly after Yoon's announcement
2. Park An-su, the general in charge of the rapidly assembled Martial Law Command refused to announce martial law was withdrawn despite the 190-0 vote. He said he would only do so if the President give the order to stand down

It sounds to me like there are elements within the military that indeed wanted to re-enact 1979 and setup a junta government. There was actually a possibility that we could be standing here today discussing policy direction of the new 7th Republic if it wasn't for the fact that Yoon was incompetent at coup and lacked the military connection (ie the secret organisation Hanahoe) of Chun Doo-hwan.
Click to expand...
I do really want to see what would happen actually. East Asia is among one of most "nothing ever happens" zone in 2000s even with cross strait drills every other day. The dynamic will be very spicy if SK managed to form a junta.
 
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