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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
PikeCowboy said:
Proportionally russia had more to lose. It was "european" afterall
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What I meant was clear. Russia's economic size by any adjusted or absolute measure is a small fraction of China's. It is also much less dependent on Western trade than China's currently is. Russia's main exports can be sold to anyone and there's relatively inelastic demand for Russian energy provided they can set up the trade routes and logistics without Western infrastructure.

So how has Russia more to lose?
 
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Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
ougoah said:
China has a lot more to lose than Russia with these trade wars. Both sides lose. Russia being able to survive the worst economic shots from the West doesn't mean those same shots against China are equally effective/ineffective in absolute magnitude. That is not to say China should capitulate from Western threats. I think it's valuable to learn that the difference between Russia's and China's economies are so vastly different the same actions against do not produce comparable or meaningful results.
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No such thing as both sides lose, there will be far more damage to America, and that's what matters. Because as China gets rid of America, every place that previously had American influence will be on the menu.

China today needs "excuses to move" more than anything else. A rallying point and willpower for the population to take a strong anti-western stance.
 
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PikeCowboy

Junior Member
ougoah said:
What I meant was clear. Russia's economic size by any adjusted or absolute measure is a small fraction of China's. It is also much less dependent on Western trade than China's currently is. Russia's main exports can be sold to anyone and there's relatively inelastic demand for Russian energy provided they can set up the trade routes and logistics without Western infrastructure.

So how has Russia more to lose?
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Europe was a bigger % trading partner leading up to the war to russia than it is currently by percent to China

Russia also had an incomplete manufacturing industry and depended on a lot of european machine input even in its energy industry

If decoupling happens then Europe can run on dollars and China can run on manufactures goods... Then I guess we'll finally see if dollars are more valuable or if goods are more valuable.
 
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Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
PikeCowboy said:
Europe was a bigger % trading partner leading up to the war to russia than it is currently by percent to China

Russia also had an incomplete manufacturing industry and depended on a lot of european machine input even in its energy industry
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Also few people invest in Russia, while nearly every major western brand has a majority or plurality of their market share from having access to China.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
PikeCowboy said:
Europe was a bigger % trading partner leading up to the war to russia than it is currently by percent to China

Russia also had an incomplete manufacturing industry and depended on a lot of european machine input even in its energy industry
Click to expand...

Yet Russia managed to find other partners pretty quickly and recover much of those losses. China does not have too much of an alternative to Western clients. Certainly not of the same value. Russia fears being cut off from Western clients less than China does. Of course it's a two way street and the West absolutely fears being cut off from Chinese clients (and more importantly, suppliers). China is slowly weaning itself off Western dependence faster and more effectively than the West is weaning itself off Chinese dependence. Western corps get economic advantage while China gets supplies it currently isn't able to provide itself with. However that list is shrinking by the day as only a few strategically important tools are not within China's inventory of expertise yet. Western corps and economies cannot survive without China's "over-production" and deflationary effect of affordable Chinese exports.

Hence both sides lose some things. It just doesn't make sense to compare Russia. A relative small player.
 
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Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
Index said:
We are ever moving closer to war, and as so the most important part is expanding industrial capacities. This is bar none the most important response, construction of new weapon production facilities.

Eventually all the US assets in China will be forfeit, and besides that, the aggression war driven by NATO will serve as pretext for massive Chinese counter expansion. As long as there is enough to fuel the war machine, China will get to loot many countries in their entirety to more than make up for any minor gains NATO can do.

The old axis started by annexing 2 whole countries while we just watched and bided our time.
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Demographics is just as important as industries if war is on the horizon. For as much talk as there has been of robots and AI, Ukraine shows that man power is still critical to modern warfare.

Fortunately for China it has a significant demographic advantage currently vs. the West; though that will change in the next decade or so.
 
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pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
PikeCowboy said:
Europe was a bigger % trading partner leading up to the war to russia than it is currently by percent to China

Russia also had an incomplete manufacturing industry and depended on a lot of european machine input even in its energy industry

If decoupling happens then Europe can run on dollars and China can run on manufactures goods... Then I guess we'll finally see if dollars are more valuable or if goods are more valuable.
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Russia does not have incomplete manufacturing industry. it produces less for each of the thing to make sure it maintains skills in diverse fields. Russia imports from China barely reach $100b a year despite tremendous expansion in Russia GDP, stoppage of EU/Japan direct imports and without creating new debt. It is not just $300b frozen but $450b because Russia does not have much use for trade surplus of about $150b with India in past 3 years. and this $450b will be chump change in overall scheme of things. to reach to such level of wealth you need that Green.
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
ougoah said:
Yet Russia managed to find other partners pretty quickly and recover much of those losses. China does not have too much of an alternative to Western clients. Certainly not of the same value. Russia fears being cut off from Western clients less than China does. Of course it's a two way street and the West absolutely fears being cut off from Chinese clients (and more importantly, suppliers). China is slowly weaning itself off Western dependence faster and more effectively than the West is weaning itself off Chinese dependence. Western corps get economic advantage while China gets supplies it currently isn't able to provide itself with. However that list is shrinking by the day as only a few strategically important tools are not within China's inventory of expertise yet. Western corps and economies cannot survive without China's "over-production" and deflationary effect of affordable Chinese exports.

Hence both sides lose some things. It just doesn't make sense to compare Russia. A relative small player.
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For sure both sides lose. But ultimately, this has already been discussed in the Taiwan thread many times in the past

If a full decoupling happens, I would much prefer to be on the side which has all the manufacturing and "no money", than on the side of zero manufacturing capacity and a lot of money.

What is wealth? Goods and items or paper/digital money?
 
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