PikeCowboy
Junior Member
Proportionally russia had more to lose. It was "european" afterall
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- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
What I meant was clear. Russia's economic size by any adjusted or absolute measure is a small fraction of China's. It is also much less dependent on Western trade than China's currently is. Russia's main exports can be sold to anyone and there's relatively inelastic demand for Russian energy provided they can set up the trade routes and logistics without Western infrastructure.
So how has Russia more to lose?
No such thing as both sides lose, there will be far more damage to America, and that's what matters. Because as China gets rid of America, every place that previously had American influence will be on the menu.
China today needs "excuses to move" more than anything else. A rallying point and willpower for the population to take a strong anti-western stance.
PikeCowboy
Junior Member
Europe was a bigger % trading partner leading up to the war to russia than it is currently by percent to China
Russia also had an incomplete manufacturing industry and depended on a lot of european machine input even in its energy industry
If decoupling happens then Europe can run on dollars and China can run on manufactures goods... Then I guess we'll finally see if dollars are more valuable or if goods are more valuable.
Also few people invest in Russia, while nearly every major western brand has a majority or plurality of their market share from having access to China.
Yet Russia managed to find other partners pretty quickly and recover much of those losses. China does not have too much of an alternative to Western clients. Certainly not of the same value. Russia fears being cut off from Western clients less than China does. Of course it's a two way street and the West absolutely fears being cut off from Chinese clients (and more importantly, suppliers). China is slowly weaning itself off Western dependence faster and more effectively than the West is weaning itself off Chinese dependence. Western corps get economic advantage while China gets supplies it currently isn't able to provide itself with. However that list is shrinking by the day as only a few strategically important tools are not within China's inventory of expertise yet. Western corps and economies cannot survive without China's "over-production" and deflationary effect of affordable Chinese exports.
Hence both sides lose some things. It just doesn't make sense to compare Russia. A relative small player.
Demographics is just as important as industries if war is on the horizon. For as much talk as there has been of robots and AI, Ukraine shows that man power is still critical to modern warfare.
Fortunately for China it has a significant demographic advantage currently vs. the West; though that will change in the next decade or so.
Russia does not have incomplete manufacturing industry. it produces less for each of the thing to make sure it maintains skills in diverse fields. Russia imports from China barely reach $100b a year despite tremendous expansion in Russia GDP, stoppage of EU/Japan direct imports and without creating new debt. It is not just $300b frozen but $450b because Russia does not have much use for trade surplus of about $150b with India in past 3 years. and this $450b will be chump change in overall scheme of things. to reach to such level of wealth you need that Green.
This is sort of how I imagine the USG's attempts to 'replicate' DJI drones over the past few years
