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horse

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
I understand why Comrade Trump started a trade war with China, but I don't know why EU wants to do the same? Do European leaders have a death wish or are they secretly comrades too?
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tamsen_ikard said:
So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.
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Having good information, and the right information, telling us what the facts are, is important, as coolgod knows. Recent headlines, about news that is already a few months old.

:p

It’s U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy

By Jason Douglas and Tom Fairless
Nov. 3, 2023 12:01 am ET

China passed a significant milestone last fall: For the first time since its economic opening more than four decades ago, it traded more with developing countries than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. It was one of the clearest signs yet that China and the West are going in different directions as tensions increase over trade, technology, security and other thorny issues.

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B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Trade wars can be bad for Europe but its also bad for China as well. Especially now, When China is no longer contract manufacturer but active brand builder.

Chinese brands will be the primary driver of China's future growth. So, Chinese branded Cars, Tvs, Computers, Phones, Apps such as Tiktok and Temu. These Chinese branded products will have much bigger profit if they have access to US, EU and other western allied markets.

But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find.


The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power. So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate. Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.

So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.

Europe and US are already rich and can afford to attack China. But China is still poor and wants to be rich. So, it has no choice but to make concessions just to have the opportunity to become rich. Thats why China was forced to do the trade deal with Trump. They essentially bent the knee because they were in a weaker position.

China will have to play a very delicate diplomatic game so that US and Europe do not become too hostile to ban everything Chinese. And this is what they are doing. When US attacks with sanctions and bans, China does not retaliate proportionally. They do a symbolic retaliation but keep asking for peace and for a deal. This is how they want to reduce US and western animosity towards China and continue to gain wealth.

This is China's biggest long term crisis, How to keep US and EU market for Chinese products over the long term.

So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.
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China "does not react proportionally", well, does it even need to react proportionally in order to inflict recession on its enemy?

GDP isn't a good measure of actual market size, as its distorted (especially in US' case) by the selling of essential services and other paper agreements. Furthermore, there is no prospect of economic mobilization within the EU. If they can't even match Russia in an arms race, there is 0 chance they can actualize their economic potential and compete with China.

China is already "rich" in the sense that it has higher median wealth than Europe, and it has as much middle/upper class as the whole US population inside it. That's why despite declaring full economical war, US can't make a dent into the Chinese economy, it is extremely difficult to "punch upwards" towards a bigger and more stable economy.

US didn't need to be proportional against the USSR either, because USSR was a smaller economy with nothing going for it but it's military. It simply waited them out while letting them waste themselves on proxy wars.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Trade wars can be bad for Europe but its also bad for China as well. Especially now, When China is no longer contract manufacturer but active brand builder.

Chinese brands will be the primary driver of China's future growth. So, Chinese branded Cars, Tvs, Computers, Phones, Apps such as Tiktok and Temu. These Chinese branded products will have much bigger profit if they have access to US, EU and other western allied markets.

But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find.


The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power. So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate. Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.

So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.

Europe and US are already rich and can afford to attack China. But China is still poor and wants to be rich. So, it has no choice but to make concessions just to have the opportunity to become rich. Thats why China was forced to do the trade deal with Trump. They essentially bent the knee because they were in a weaker position.

China will have to play a very delicate diplomatic game so that US and Europe do not become too hostile to ban everything Chinese. And this is what they are doing. When US attacks with sanctions and bans, China does not retaliate proportionally. They do a symbolic retaliation but keep asking for peace and for a deal. This is how they want to reduce US and western animosity towards China and continue to gain wealth.

This is China's biggest long term crisis, How to keep US and EU market for Chinese products over the long term.

So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.
Click to expand...
I actually agree with you but for opposite reason. China is in a much better economical position than EU, who has no future. Nevertheless, China must keep EU market because deindustrialization of EU presents a huge vacuum for China to fill.

Even if China will get banned, China should still pursue as much market share as they can. The more share they get, the more awkward to kick China out, and they more damage EU will take to kick China out. The more damage EU takes, the less they can help US working against China.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
I actually agree with you but for opposite reason. China is in a much better economical position than EU, who has no future. Nevertheless, China must keep EU market because deindustrialization of EU presents a huge vacuum for China to fill.

Even if China will get banned, China should still pursue as much market share as they can. The more share they get, the more awkward to kick China out, and they more damage EU will take to kick China out. The more damage EU takes, the less they can help US working against China.
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I agree with your idea, unfortunately it doesn't seem like the CPC likes it. The CPC official rhetoric is that China prefers a multipolar world, i.e., a strong europe as a pole, even though it is obvious to everyone that Europe is on the path of irreversible decline. One of these days China will have to acknowledge the world is bipolar again, not unipolar, not multipolar.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
coolgod said:
US is rich, that's why it can afford to launch a trade war with China. Europe is (relatively) poor, that's why the europoor meme has been floating online for a while. FYI China's median wealth has already surpassed Europe last year, not sure why you think Europe is rich and China is poor.
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China has also surpassed EU in GDP a while ago.

Europe embracing protectionism is a sign of decline, not a symbol of strength. When Europe was on the ascend they knocked on the door of China with gunboats and forced "free trade" onto China.
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EU literally cannot afford protectionism vs China. See Huawei situation. Once cut off Huawei, there is no replacement. Protectionism assumes local industry can meet the demand so foriegn competition gets less priority. The same cannot work if locals cannot do it at all. See battery tech for EV.

So the key problem is not protectionism but politics. Some politician may want to ban Chinese product regardless of economic suicide.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
coolgod said:
I agree with your idea, unfortunately it doesn't seem like the CPC likes it. The CPC official rhetoric is that China prefers a multipolar world, i.e., a strong europe as a pole, even though it is obvious to everyone that Europe is on the path of irreversible decline. One of these days China will have to acknowledge the world is bipolar again, not unipolar, not multipolar.
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If EU dont kick China out, Chinese investment will revigorate EU economy by boosting them through joint ventures not unlike how Europe boosted China back then. It is not like China is sucking their blood away. I am just saying should they be malicious, they take greater damage. Joint venture means kicking China their own industry lose their half of investments too.
 
E

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Rare Biden Win
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Seriously, that is a win? a very low hanging fruit when you consider the loses the USA has taken economic wise and in terms of how quickly the USA is becoming mired in a crisis not only in Ukraine but Israel as well with Blinken basically casing a massive scene and projecting the image of a moron on the world stage that is now requiring William burns to go and solve yet another mess. Seriously though, how is it a win when in the end, it could easily be taken away again when Biden decides to call XI a dictator yet again
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
Thanks to China's non-interventionist foreign policy, nothing will really change. Additionally, unless Yellowstone blows up, their geographic circumstances won't be changing anytime soon either. IMO China should abandon its current policy and follow game theory tit-for-tat. Everything the US has done to China should be fair game in retaliation.
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Yes, with the caveat that US would need to prove it can actually present a response justifying threat in anything other than military first.

What average Chinese people see is just increasing wages and decreased costs, while new technologies are actualized all around them. Once in awhile, US might blow back companies like Huawei from their market, but those are drops in the bucket compared to the whole economy.

Why should China change up its strategy and take on more risks when every day widens the gap in the status quo?

When/if US shows signs of being able to flip the trend around, China should push them with everything at once, to achieve a shock effect and tackle them down.
 
S

SanWenYu

Major
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power.
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Their high nominal GDP reflects the fact that the world is run by the rules set by the westerners. If the west collectively decide to hide behind the high walls of their nice little gardens (say hi to Borrell the gardener), their money will no longer have the same buying power. Why would we the barbarians take their money if we are not allowed to buy from them?

tamsen_ikard said:
So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate.
Click to expand...
It'll be a good thing for the Chinese brands. If the US and Europeans have to resort to protectionism to defend their own home base, how can they even win in competition with Chinese in the wilderness of global south?

I say leave them alone in the gardens where they can enjoy their own expensive, delicate products.

You have to be aware that strategically, China is on the offense. It has been taking share of wealth and market away from the developed countries. China has forced the west to take defensive positions.

tamsen_ikard said:
Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.
Click to expand...
This statement does not make sense at all. If China can unite the global south and create a new world, the return will be huge.

tamsen_ikard said:
So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.
Click to expand...
You do not speak for China. Tiktok does not represent China. Just like Musk and his Tesla playing nice in China doesn't mean the US is kowtowing.
 
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D

Deleted member 24525

Guest
SanWenYu said:
Their high nominal GDP reflects the fact that the world is run by the rules set by the westerners. If the west collectively decide to hide behind the high walls of their nice little gardens (say hi to Borrell the gardener), their money will no longer have the same buying power. Why would we the babarians take their money if we are not allowed buy from them?
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Their high nominal GDP reflects their technological advantage. That is how they set the global rules in the first place. Aside from the major exception of China, the overwhelming majority of trade conducted by developed countries is with other developed countries, not with the global south.
SanWenYu said:
This statement does not make sense at all. If China can unite the global south and create a new world, the return will be huge.
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The global south has 80% of the worlds population and encompasses 3 entire continents with over a hundred countries and literal thousands of unique cultures and languages. China will not be 'uniting' the global south, or creating a new world by doing so, nor are these actually its aims. It is seeking to cultivate a large alternative export market, both to give it bargaining power in trade negotiations with the west, and to simply grow its economy in general. In this comparably modest respect it is doing quite well.

The crux of China's development and economic vitality is and will always be what is going on inside the country. The demand contained within China's domestic market vastly exceeds that of the export market even in a good year, and this demand on its own is sufficient to support the construction of a comprehensive modern industrial network, and the development of world-leading technological capabilities. While this means that China has a unique ability to hold its development trajectory in its own hands, it also means that it is fully responsible for any failures therein.

The foreign market and the outside world in general is just the wrong thing to focus on if you want to get a good understanding of what will determine China's strength and success going forward, and I would recommend getting out of that mindset as quickly as possible.
 
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