If the shooter was slightly more accurate it would be already over. But the shooter wasn't accurate and now it's only the beginning.
This is a better quality clip that also has Trump standing up, raising his fist and mouthing "fight" repeatedly to the crowd.
"The shooter is down" means that SS got the likely shooter.
It was also a semi-automatic. You can hear multiple fast shots once Trump is covered by bodyguards which is a desperation measure. It also means the shooter was a complete amateur because these kinds of shots are done by a bolt-action sniper rifle with a single shot only. But he was still trying to hit him two more times after the first one and each time he missed badly. Then he panicked and then he likely identified himself.
Also watch closely at the moment he is hit. Trump turns his head a short moment before the first shot, which may be why he was - what appears as - grazed. The shooter could have been aiming for back of the head but the bullet travels a fraction of a second to the target which is what a human needs to move head slightly. And that's all that's necessary for an untrained shooter to miss target.
I will advise everyone to wait for more information about everything in this incident and wait for the reactions on all sides, especially from Trump. Alternative angles would be tremendously helpful as well as statements from other people. Allegedly people in the crowd were hit which is what should happen with this many shots into a crowd. This and the alternative angles will answer if that could be staged.
Trump standing up with his fist raised fits what we know of shock behaviour. Trump doesn't act like a person who has been trained to react properly to assassins, and he acts extremely confused but that's also the consequence of him being under guard by SS as an ex-president. He probably expected an attempt but didn't know what to expect because these things never look like in the movies, especially for the people doing the deed and their target.
As for whether it was staged: in theory it could, in practice, it didn't have to.
This event was to be expected. I absolutely was waiting for an assassination attempt at Trump, and was dreading the day. It had to come because everything from history and our current understanding of social dynamics pointed to it happening at a time when Biden's campaign faltered. Authentic or staged. It had to come because that was the most likely tactic taken by Trump to make himself a martyr with criminal convictions and other problems. It had to come because America is a land of people who like to solve their mental problems by shooting at other people. It had to come and here it is.
And because he isn't dead he is going to run on this until November 4. This is his Reichstag moment just as January 6 was his Beer Hall Putsch, and his time out of power and criminal charges were his time in Landsberg.
He won't swing undecided voters because that's not how human psychology works. Whoever was willing to vote for him will vote for him. Whoever was willing to vote against him will vote against him. So what happens next? Well... we can no longer think in election terms. This is not an election anymore. This is a creeping coup.
This is what Trump is planning to do with this event (authentic or staged):
- He is signalling to his base that now violence is permitted because "they did it first". He is signalling that he is going to go for presidency January 6 style. If he wins he wins. If he doesn't win it is rigged against him because why wouldn't they if they tried to kill him? Nobody would try to kill him if he was going to lose. This effectively invalidates any outcome other than Trump victory for Republicans.
- He is forcing the undecided Republican-voters into a "us or them" mentality within their party and force them to close ranks or be ejected as traitors in times of extreme crisis. He is radicalising the Republican electorate from within which is crucial because anti-Trump republicans were his biggest weakness. Illegitimate and illegal acts can only be performed in politics if nobody breaks rank. Now everyone in the party also has an excuse to set aside the differences and come together in a time of great crisis and he has the opportunity to be magnanimous about it. It is the best opportunity for Republican Party to reorganise as a party of Trump in all but name.
- He is provoking the extreme elements on the other side to escalate because now they should legitimately fear extreme reprisals if he wins. This will be used as a feedback mechanism to justify escalation from the right.
- He is going to justify Project 2025 with this so regardless of how the election comes out in Congress (Democrats can in theory win both House and Senate) he is going to force it through the executive power and loyalists in the ranks.
- He just received the best tool for diverting attention from absolutely everything. He can run on "they tried to kill me" in every single interview, debate etc and never say another thing and everyone will understand it intuitively as a true thing - which is important for a person well known to lie pathologically - because everyone will have seen it countless times by now.
If anyone thought we were already living in "interesting times"... you've seen nothing yet. We're on a crazy train now and this is not going to end well.
This election is over. But not because Trump won. It's over because he is no longer going to try to win it. This is in all likelihood America's genuine Hitler moment.
Good night and good luck.
