Miscellaneous News

CMP said:

Let's be realistic here. Iran will never have a successful car industry. So it really doesn't matter that they want this. They have no realistic means of achieving it and no real markets to sell to.

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Well, right now they have their own internal market. If they open their market to China they won't even have that.

Chevalier said:

So they're as ambitious as the Turks but unlike the Turks, have played their hands poorly. They don't need to make an enemy out of China but Chinese help is there for the taking and in fact, they are committed, as the 25 year $400bln Sino-Iran Agreement attests. That's $400bln that's not going into US Treasuries mind you and if any Iranian leader decides they'd rather live as slaves, then they need look no further than Argentina whose anarchy capitalist Mile was forced to kowtow to Beijing.

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Everyone are ambitious, it is what it is. But yeah reformists are delusional about the west, no matter how many times they got burnt they still haven't learnt their lessons. The thing is Iran geopolitical position is pretty much set in stone, no matter how much some Iranians love America it won't change the ground reality

No juicy details revealed yet

Minm said:

There may not be any international sanctions left, but Chinese companies obey American sanctions on Iran and sometimes on Russia as well, that's the problem.

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That would be breaking laws, opening said companies to being sued for massive amounts by impacted Iranians. So do you have any proof that Chinese companies have gone rogue, that is a really serious accusation that could see them being destroyed in court.

Minm said:

Investing in Iran's gas industry should be extremely profitable for China, but it's not happening because clearly it's not worth angering the Americans over some additional cheap gas. China signed the 25 year agreement with Iran, but not much happened because of the US.

I'm not sure how good or bad Iran's domestic economic policy is, but it seems neither exceptionally good or bad. They have a problem with inflation but a growing industrial economy that can provide most products that they need. The core problem is American financial sanctions that make international trade very difficult and American threats to potential buyers of Iranian oil or gas that reduce sales. Which becomes very obvious from the short economic boom that the nuclear deal brought.

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Iran at 1.8 billion $ gdp has a larger economy than Pakistan... Despite a smaller population.

China's concern is with international reach sanctions only. Since neither Iran nor Pakistan are under significant sanctions, the fact Iran out performs Pakistan strongly points that they're doing something right that Pakistan isn't. And conversely, more developed economies than Iran are also doing something right that Iran isn't.

I think Iran has a lot of reforms they can do that will improve the economy. Just giving them money or very preferential trade deals will not necessarily develop those reforms inside Iran.

More concretely, China has helped Iran in establishing and manufacturing it's military industry, which enables Iran to defend itself. This is already one of the best ways to help them without risking making them civilian sector dependent on China.

Petrolicious88 said:

Are the the Philippines that gullible or is it more because they want to ally with the US, they look up to the US, and when you have a large neighbor that wants your land, what choice do you have other than partner with another country.

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Impressive to have so many blatant lies in so short a sentence.

Firstly, it was never their land. Their only claim comes from their previous colonisers.

Secondly, China was willing to be more than generous and offered joint resource exploration and fishing rights.

Contrary to western propaganda BS, China doesn’t really care that much about the resources of the SCS expect as a matter of sovereignty and principle.

China’s moves in the SCS were against the US, who first encouraged the Vietnamese to go on a land grabbing frenzy under Obama and SheClinton to sabotage the grand dispute settlement China was working on with all rival claimants.

The Philippines weren’t even a consideration until they made themselves a problem trying to manufacture a crisis in Scarborough Shoal to land grab by sending their mightiest naval warship to try and harass Chinese civilians and coast guard ships.

So the better analogy would be someone who already infringed on their neighbour’s land by deliberately parking a broken down car on it now wanting to build a garage around the broken down car on their neighbour’s land getting hysterical when the neighbour installs surveillance systems to keep a better eye on the properly boundary and is demanding he remove his rush bucket trash from their property.

The Philippines fucked around and now they are finding out. It’s the natural order of the world to teach painful lessons to idiots who cannot see the blatantly obvious so they don’t make bigger mistakes. Because there is no scenario where the Philippines comes out with a better outcome continuing their idiotic and suicidal course. It’s like someone getting mad at an industrial meat mincer because they’re poked their little pinky into the grinder and is now threatening to punch it and then headbutt it. The mincer’s only concern is that this idiot might contaminate a batch of mince and give it a bad reputation.

plawolf said:

Impressive to have so many blatant lies in so short a sentence.

Firstly, it was never their land. Their only claim comes from their previous colonisers.

Secondly, China was willing to be more than generous and offered joint resource exploration and fishing rights.

Contrary to western propaganda BS, China doesn’t really care that much about the resources of the SCS expect as a matter of sovereignty and principle.

China’s moves in the SCS were against the US, who first encouraged the Vietnamese to go on a land grabbing frenzy under Obama and SheClinton to sabotage the grand dispute settlement China was working on with all rival claimants.

The Philippines weren’t even a consideration until they made themselves a problem trying to manufacture a crisis in Scarborough Shoal to land grab by sending their mightiest naval warship to try and harass Chinese civilians and coast guard ships.

So the better analogy would be someone who already infringed on their neighbour’s land by deliberately parking a broken down car on it now wanting to build a garage around the broken down car on their neighbour’s land getting hysterical when the neighbour installs surveillance systems to keep a better eye on the properly boundary and is demanding he remove his rush bucket trash from their property.

The Philippines fucked around and now they are finding out. It’s the natural order of the world to teach painful lessons to idiots who cannot see the blatantly obvious so they don’t make bigger mistakes. Because there is no scenario where the Philippines comes out with a better outcome continuing their idiotic and suicidal course. It’s like someone getting mad at an industrial meat mincer because they’re poked their little pinky into the grinder and is now threatening to punch it and then headbutt it. The mincer’s only concern is that this idiot might contaminate a batch of mince and give it a bad reputation.

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Interestingly, the below quote summarizes "Oct 7th" perfectly:

when you have a large neighbor that wants your land, what choice do you have

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Lethe said:

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I am reminded of Gore Vidal's commentary on, amongst other things, the previous incarnation of today's National Rally party under Marine Le Pen, the National Front under Marine's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen:

"The Democratic Party is a machine to get votes for its people, probably none of whom should be elected to the high offices of state. The Republican Party is fundamentally crooked and might well be outlawed one of these days. Le Pen, you know, in France, who is an out-and-out fascist, the French have managed in some clever way to contain him. I mean, he’s always running for president, but his votes never seem to show up. I don’t know how they do that."

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What are the implications of this for China? Will a stunted French parliament benefit China? How will this affect the EU power balance between France and Germany?

9dashline said:

"In times of war the laws fall silent"

"War is a continuation of politics by other means"

The only way US could ever get China to pay up 18 trillion is if it kinetically defeated China in war.....

Sounds like this could be prelude to declaration of war etc, if Chatgpt 5 comes out before the election, Xi needs to rug pull and go for AR

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This is why they trying to blame China for covid and asking for 18 trillion... US is issuing new debt at pandemic levels

The wheels have fallen off

CMP said:

They've been trying to overt
Let's be realistic here. Iran will never have a successful car industry. So it really doesn't matter that they want this. They have no realistic means of achieving it and no real markets to sell to.

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Iran produces about 1.5 million cars (maybe less now) a year which is nothing to sneeze at internationally. Success for them would be localization of as many inputs as possible so that cars are affordable and fuel efficient. They have done an okay job of this given their circumstances but it is a very difficult task under their circumstances. They even did export quite a few cars to Iraq for a while but that has been replaced by superior Chinese cars.

I have been quite surprised that China hasn't played a larger role in the Iranian industry

There are two main state-backed car makers in Iran, Iran Khodro and Saipa. The most common car is basically a localized old Kia pride for around $6k last I checked which is obviously not a very good car and that is actually very expensive now for average Iranians. Iran Khodro has a decent car the new Dena for maybe $12k but all of these cars suffer from questionable safety although they may have addressed that recently. I worked have expected a Chinese company to setup parts production in Iran or do a licensing agreement for things like airbags, electronics, vvt, fuel injection which they are known to struggle with. Instead it seems the defence industry has tried to address these shortcomings. The automakers and fuel are both highly subsidized so there is great impetus for newer tech like NEVs or even something basic like GDI which they still lack.

There is a Chery joint venture in Iran but it is completely uncompetitive in price so it must be assembly only. Despite this, they still sell in Iran because of the superior reputation and known safety.

I don't want this post to get too long but this general issue applies in many industries where there seems to be room for Chinese involvement but secondary sanction fears, related banking difficulties, or a lack of initiative by businesses in both countries has led to disappointment.

Iran is selling 1.5 mbbl of oil a day now plus the strategic agreement so I expected a big upgrade in capital equipment but I guess these things take time.

incidentally, there is no cap on financier/ banker/ fund manager pay in HK, as opposed to the mainland,

If you were a fund manager who needs the Chinese market to survive (ahem goldman sachs) and also needs to entice talent with better pay, why wouldn't you make Hong Kong your headquarters? That appears to be the CPC's intention, to make HK the finance capital of Asia whilst ensuring the excesses of american anglo/zionist capitalism are kept in check.

US 400k per annum is already decent pay enough already, considering that compared to the US or Australia, Chinese citizens aren't as taxed as much as the US/Aussie taxpayer, to say nothing of hapless europeans who get both high taxes and shit infrastructure and even crappier work ethic from bureacrats.

9dashline said:

This is why they trying to blame China for covid and asking for 18 trillion... US is issuing new debt at pandemic levels

The wheels have fallen off

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Why is the US going default even a topic? US prints its own money in the form of US dollars, then issues notes and bonds so people buy them with US dollars, in turn, they get paid back with more US dollars. So as long as the US keeps printing and people keep buying (all in US Dollars), why would there be a need for a default? And before anyone brings up Inflation, as long as the notes and bonds are denominated in US dollars, then the effect between inflation and government debt default is effectively severed, no?