Another thing regarding vaccination. It is not only about producing the vaccine in volume, but also the packaging bottles, injectors and transportation infrastructures (refrigeration ships and lorries). I think these are strategic assets that China should keep a tight grip on.
Have you heard about China's vaccination program where the authorities announced that they would vaccinate 70-80% of the population by mid 2022?
I hope thats their most pessimistic scenario because otherwise that would be a big blunder if true. China cant just keep their borders closed for another year because stopping business travel for another year while the rest of the world is open would be disastrous.
And can you imagine all the flare ups from a 4th, 5th, 6th etc. Covid waves? Or.imagine if maybe some local govs make a mistake and then the whole country must be locked down?
IMO this is the most pessimistic scenario as they are rapidly expanding production and there are other vaccines undergoing phase 3 and 2 trials so more vaccine should be available