Could you actually critique specific points?
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@siegecrossbow
For example, here is one from Peter Zeihan that I listened to for 30mins last week before I gave up:
During this interview, the 3 biggest lies that Pete Zeihan said with utter conviction were the following:
EDIT. I see this Peter Zeihan video is almost at 400K views. And the host simply was out of his depth because he couldn't spot the obvious lies.
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1. China has up to 3 billion empty apartments and that the Chinese property market will crash to pennies on the dollar
However, the best estimate is that there are up to 80 million empty apartments, so Peter Zeihan has exaggerated by 37x.
And if you think about it, China has 474 million households.
Another 3 billion empty apartments means the average family in China would have 6 empty properties.
It just doesn't make any sense.
Source
fortune.com/asia/2023/09/25/china-housing-crisis-how-many-vacant-homes-evergrande-country-garden/
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2. China would collapse due to lack of fuel and food from a US naval blockade
Remember meat was a luxury for most of humanity's existence.
But if you do the calculations, China's state grain reserves have over 2 years of grains stored for an emergency.
China also maintains a policy of 90% self-sufficiency in terms of grain production.
Plus China can still import food and fertiliser from Russia for example.
As for oil, in the past year, TPHuang and myself independently did some calculations on the forum which indicated that [Chinese domestic oil production + Russian imports] would probably be enough for self-sufficiency, if China wasn't exporting goods anymore.
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3. China will definitely collapse within 10 years due to demographics
China's working age population in 2024 is currently 984 million.
In 2034, it is expected to be 943 million.
So a 5% decline in working population is going to cause a collapse?
The Chinese overall population is going to be broadly stable, plus I expect the retirement age to be increased.
Source
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