Miscellaneous News

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
But, I could be mistaken, and maybe I jumped the gun too soon and got WAY TOO SENSITIVE, silly wumao Chinese in me, got emotional because I am afraid that those Xi bucks will stop coming into my direct deposit account. So @gpt Please, by all means help me understand your perspective and the perspective/content of the video perhaps I will be able to learn something new that I have yet to discover.

Xi bucks? How are you getting Xi bucks? The only Chinese money I’ve gotten are red envelopes from my grandparents.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm not sure what you meant by that, but the thing is the report was dated 2018. And was the anomalous sampling method applied equally to all countries?

If you know that you have oversampled or undersampled students (vocational versus academic) - then the next step is to adjust the weightings and normalise the results.

Say for example, your student sample is 30% vocational and 70% academic.
But actually 50% of students are vocational and 50% are academic.
So you only apply the tests results proportionally to each group.

I'd be shocked if the PISA authors didn't do this as standard because every country has different types of schools, and it would be impossible to test students in exactly the proportion that you want. This is a fundamental concept in any sort of statistical research.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I clicked the link paused the video started reading the most liked comments. It was a hopium sniffing party in the comment section.
Then i knew enough to just close the link again.

Could you actually critique specific points?

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@siegecrossbow

For example, here is one from Peter Zeihan that I listened to for 30mins last week before I gave up:
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During this interview, the 3 biggest lies that Pete Zeihan said with utter conviction were the following:

EDIT. I see this Peter Zeihan video is almost at 400K views. And the host simply was out of his depth because he couldn't spot the obvious lies.

---

1. China has up to 3 billion empty apartments and that the Chinese property market will crash to pennies on the dollar

However, the best estimate is that there are up to 80 million empty apartments, so Peter Zeihan has exaggerated by 37x.

And if you think about it, China has 474 million households.
Another 3 billion empty apartments means the average family in China would have 6 empty properties.
It just doesn't make any sense.

Source
fortune.com/asia/2023/09/25/china-housing-crisis-how-many-vacant-homes-evergrande-country-garden/
---

2. China would collapse due to lack of fuel and food from a US naval blockade

Remember meat was a luxury for most of humanity's existence.
But if you do the calculations, China's state grain reserves have over 2 years of grains stored for an emergency.
China also maintains a policy of 90% self-sufficiency in terms of grain production.
Plus China can still import food and fertiliser from Russia for example.

As for oil, in the past year, TPHuang and myself independently did some calculations on the forum which indicated that [Chinese domestic oil production + Russian imports] would probably be enough for self-sufficiency, if China wasn't exporting goods anymore.

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3. China will definitely collapse within 10 years due to demographics

China's working age population in 2024 is currently 984 million.
In 2034, it is expected to be 943 million.
So a 5% decline in working population is going to cause a collapse?

The Chinese overall population is going to be broadly stable, plus I expect the retirement age to be increased.

Source
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---
 
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supercat

Major
Diminishing returnd

The drivers of excess mortality are all positively correlated either with risk-taking or wealth.
They have nothing to do with diminishing returns or risk-taking behavior. The US' mediocre indicators of the quality of life such as life expectancy, when compared to other wealthy nations, are caused by the inefficiency, waste, and corruption in its healthcare system and the rampant wealth disparity in its society.

Everyone 14-18y/o goes to high school in the United States. Only ~40-60% of European 14-18y/o’s go to high school (the rest of them go to vocational schools). Assuming a normal distribution, the PISA average is measuring the 50th percentile in the United States but the 20th-30th percentile in other countries. And even with that substantial adverse selection in the United States, the United States is still in the 93rd percentile globally.
If you know that you have oversampled or undersampled students (vocational versus academic) - then the next step is to adjust the weightings and normalise the results.

Say for example, your student sample is 30% vocational and 70% academic.
But actually 50% of students are vocational and 50% are academic.
So you only apply the tests results proportionally to each group.

I'd be shocked if the PISA authors didn't do this as standard because every country has different types of schools, and it would be impossible to test students in exactly the proportion that you want. This is a fundamental concept in any sort of statistical research.
I think the most important adjustment is wealth, not only the ratio of students at vocational schools. You have to compare apples with apples. Compared to other developed, OECD countries with similar wealth, America's PISA scores are about average. China's on the other hand, is probably at top 3% even among OECD nations, despite being still a developing nation and far less wealthy.

I can't believe I'm seeing this sh*t again: first it was "white men's burden", now "white women's burden"? "The absolute arrogance of Americans to think China needs BARBIE and Taylor Swift and other shallow pop culture garbage to understand freedom. Holy fuck it blows me away every time"

The truth about women's rights in China:
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Could you actually critique specific points?

---
@siegecrossbow

For example, here is one from Peter Zeihan that I listened to for 30mins last week before I gave up:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


During this interview, the 3 biggest lies that Pete Zeihan said with utter conviction were the following:

EDIT. I see this Peter Zeihan video is almost at 400K views. And the host simply was out of his depth because he couldn't spot the obvious lies.

---

1. China has up to 3 billion empty apartments and that the Chinese property market will crash to pennies on the dollar

However, the best estimate is that there are up to 80 million empty apartments, so Peter Zeihan has exaggerated by 37x.

And if you think about it, China has 474 million households.
Another 3 billion empty apartments means the average family in China would have 6 empty properties.
It just doesn't make any sense.

Source
fortune.com/asia/2023/09/25/china-housing-crisis-how-many-vacant-homes-evergrande-country-garden/
---

2. China would collapse due to lack of fuel and food from a US naval blockade

Remember meat was a luxury for most of humanity's existence.
But if you do the calculations, China's state grain reserves have over 2 years of grains stored for an emergency.
China also maintains a policy of 90% self-sufficiency in terms of grain production.
Plus China can still import food and fertiliser from Russia for example.

As for oil, in the past year, TPHuang and myself independently did some calculations on the forum which indicated that [Chinese domestic oil production + Russian imports] would probably be enough for self-sufficiency, if China wasn't exporting goods anymore.

---

3. China will definitely collapse within 10 years due to demographics

China's working age population in 2024 is currently 984 million.
In 2034, it is expected to be 943 million.
So a 5% decline in working population is going to cause a collapse?

The Chinese overall population is going to be broadly stable, plus I expect the retirement age to be increased.

Source
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


---
Like i said i clicked the link and paused the video the instant youtube loaded. Sampled some of the top comments like this one.

As someone from Hong Kong that have moved to London in the UK last year... I am increasingly convinced that for all the various powers of the world, things have gotten to the point of it not even being about 'winning' the Second Cold War anymore. But instead, trying to not be the first one to collapse from self-inflicted social issues.
My Dad worked for a Chinese company that has a branch here in the states to be close to the auto companies. They laid off everyone last week. My Dad showed up to work and his boss, the local VP, was already let go. The word around the office is that things in China are much worse than we know.

Given the limited introduction of the video submitter i'm not going to spend 32 min if these are some of the top comment while i could watch or do something else in my free time. Last couple of months we have seen enough "China will collapse" copium videos. While i'm still waiting for Chinese economy to collapse and i don't mean the stock market. So i just clicked away the video and continued reading the book i was reading.

If the video submitter made a post like yours i might have actually just watched the video or never click the link because at least i would know what the subjects or bs points would be.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
They have nothing to do with diminishing returns or risk-taking behavior.
Cars, workplace accidents, drugs, and guns have nothing to do with “risk-taking behavior”? Obesity being rampant has nothing to with diminishing returns in nutritional quality in life expectancy?


They have nothing to do with diminishing returns or risk-taking behavior.

The US' mediocre indicators of the quality of life such as life expectancy, when compared to other wealthy nations, are caused by the inefficiency, waste, and corruption in its healthcare system and the rampant wealth disparity in its society.
No, they aren’t. Healthcare itself isn’t a big determinant of life expectancy because it’s only used in any large quantity by a few select chronically ill people, and the entire world is flocking to the U.S. - ex., Massachusetts General and Mayo Clinic; for healthcare procedures and willing to pay hand over fist for them. Plus Americans rate their own experience with healthcare to be very positive (
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). This of course, is not to say there aren’t problems.
I think the most important adjustment is wealth, not only the ratio of students at vocational schools. You have to compare apples with apples. Compared to other developed, OECD countries with similar wealth, America's PISA scores are about average.
The sampling frames are not the same; the U.S. has a much more adversely selected sampling frame. When you only allow the top 40-60% in many oecd countries to take the Pisa, that artificially biased upwards the Pisa scores in those countries. If an adversely selected American panel is performing as well as a positively selected European panel, that means in any like to like comparison, the U.S. tops most of the OECD easily.
China's on the other hand, is probably at top 3% even among OECD nations, despite being still a developing nation and far less wealthy.
Yep. Both the U.S. & China are reasonably well managed countries with quite good governance and good program administration.
 

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
There's nothing wrong with seeing the opposite point of view if it's legit. It's important to consider two sides.

The problem though is most of the time it's bad faith and ultimately just a waste of time. Keep in mind these anti China guys still think the Tiananmen Square massacre or Ughur genocide thing is real despite their most iconic images being blatant crops. Can they explain why the guy was supposedly stopping soldiers from killing students if the tank was actually exiting the square? Can they cite how many Ughure have actually been killed when you ask them this? So you are arguing with guys who can't even get basic things right or refuse to due to their prejudice so how are other things that are more complex going to be better?

I used to think Chinese leadership were cowards taking this approach. But now I realize, they actually can spend a lot of time debating behind the scenes provided it's legit. However they now realize the west argues in bad faith and that engaging with them at this point is actually detrimental. Actions speak louder than words.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Ethnic cleansing
From 1965 to 1973, the UK and US forced the entire Chagossian population from all the inhabited Chagos islands, not only Diego Garcia but also Peros Banhos and Salomon. They abandoned them in Mauritius or Seychelles, where they lived in abject poverty.
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The British Government has resorted to a little-used colonial power to overturn without debate a court judgement, which had granted the Chagossian islanders, deported en masse by Britain over 30 years ago to make way for a US military base, the right to return to some of their Indian Ocean islands. The government claims that security considerations post 9/11 give priority to the alleged need for the archipelago to continue to be used exclusively by US forces who lease Diego Garcia island from Britain.
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The value has been proven many times, with the island providing an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for the United States during the Iranian revolution, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Operation Desert Fox, Operation Enduring Freedom, and Operation Iraqi Freedom.
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The base is also home to a sophisticated radar, space tracking and communications facility along with a fully operational joint Navy and Air Force airfield.
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What are they hiding?
According to leaked diplomatic cables, in a calculated move planned in 2009, the UK proposed that the BIOT become a "marine reserve" with the aim of preventing the former inhabitants from returning to the islands.
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The site is alleged by independent groups as well as state officials to be a place for "extraordinary renditions" (aka state-sponsored kidnapping), torture, imprisonment, black site, with multiple documented cases of massive oil spills and nuclear waste discharge.
 
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
There is a section of the South American population that think they are part of the West. It’s the Melei and Bolsanaro crowd. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Messi was part of this crowd. Compare him to Maradona. For example, Maradona was a big supporter of Palestine.

This stunt by Messi and his advisors have already backfired. It has unified Mainland China and Hong Kong. It will get worse for Messi if Chinese people start boycotting products that sponsor Messi, it will put massive pressure on these companies to choose between the vast Chinese market or an old footballer.
Damn, maybe he was not overpaid after all. Money well spent.
 

daifo

Major
Registered Member
3. China will definitely collapse within 10 years due to demographics

China's working age population in 2024 is currently 984 million.
In 2034, it is expected to be 943 million.
So a 5% decline in working population is going to cause a collapse?

The Chinese overall population is going to be broadly stable, plus I expect the retirement age to be increased.

Source
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


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China's demographic decline is the funniest cope when it often comes from anti-china white/anglo people whom are usually also the same group of people to hate other "color" people. White/Anglo are also not reproducing at sufficient replacement rates. All of the growth in their countries are coming from "minorities" and immigrants.
 
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