Some random thoughts on wars between US, China and/or Russia.
We all witnessed first-hand historical record of the Cold War. There was no hot wars of any scale between US and USSR. Proxy war was the name of the game during the Cold War, while US and USSR had gone out of their ways to prevent direct military conflicts.
Let me relate and explain. I have never fought a war as a soldier. In other words, I have never shot anybody. But I did engage in a few street fights when I was growing up as a teenage. I can tell you this: people who have engaged in real-life fights never talk about fighting lightly, not mentioning war. When you put yourself in a real danger, you become more rational and pragmatic than you could possibly have thought or imagined before that. You never go after your peers until you are facing direct existential threats from them.
MAD prevented direct military conflicts between US and USSR during the cold war. The exact same logic applies to the situation between US and China. While USSR had overwhelming nuclear force, China has credible counter strike capability and enormous economic power. Under no circumstances will there be direct military conflicts between US and China from now on. Possible 20 years ago, but not now, and absolutely not in the future. When serious people talk about possible scenarios of military conflicts, they are actually talking about proxy wars in worst case scenarios.
If US today could not coerce Russia in the European theater, anyone thinks US can coerce China over Taiwan needs to have his head checked. As long as China does not take the bait, Taiwan is going nowhere. Based on my fighting experiences, Japan or S Korean would more likely be annihilated before US and China were shooting at each other over Taiwan.
US knows Taiwan is an extremely emotional subject to the Chinese. China knows what it takes to resolve the Taiwan issue. The great irony is, on this subject, always about "at what cost". So China has been essentially trading time for price.
There is no war between US and China, period. Everything else is a fair game ......