No, I don't see myself as being very knowledge in Chinese politics.
But just what I'm able to glean, already tells me that you very much don't (being able to judge, say if a game is good/fun is much easier than making a good/fun game afterall).
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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But just what I'm able to glean, already tells me that you very much don't (being able to judge, say if a game is good/fun is much easier than making a good/fun game afterall).
As I see it, China intends to just hold the line. They did not invest in the military much, but it's also undeniable that just because of its status as the largest economy, the PLA automatically gets a very strong lineup due to osmosis from the economy.
It will repel attacks on Taiwan from anyone, but will not start bombing the separatists randomly.
However, I think random economic sanctions or dictats can start to happen, as China is looking to tighten up its economy and maneuver in the global economical sphere. So for example export bans that ROC will be expected to obey, the halting/redirecting of economic activity in ports etc. Depending on China's specific needs.
it has more to do with a lack of life experience. journalists will come out of school and write articles for a living. most of them likely has never worked for within a team larger than the editorial department.
Some randoms thoughts on Sunday in a long weekend.
On Taiwan, the mainland social media has been more normal than as far as I can remember. This is a good sign in that the Chinese public have no illusion. This is also good for the system insiders that Taiwan is as a long game as US/China tango. On the other hand, the fact that the US media is unusually quiet on Taiwan speaks volume on the current state of geopolitical affairs.
On Gaza, US is slipping into a conundrum. An already divided American public is being torn further apart among different voting blocks. The most surprising part is that only UK meaningfully stands on the US side. US is doing a de-service to its united front with the Europe that is forged during the Ukraine war.
On Ukraine, US is distracted and tired.
On China, it is still in the process of digesting the real estate bubble that is 20 years in the making. All current manifested economic problems China is facing derive from that. The reason I am not using "busting" is that the current process was initiated by the current Chinese central government according to its own plans. The Chinese knew for a few years that this de-leveraging process would have to occur. It takes Xi's 3rd term to actually execute on a nation-wide scale. IIHO, it will take 5-10 years for the Chinese real estate markets to get back to normalcy.
On US, the election year is usually friendly to the stock markets. Noise levels are going to be high, but the boots on the ground are going to be more normal than media would portrait. US economy is going to muddle through, while the rest of the world is going to struggle at various degrees.
On US-China relation, I actually think 2024 will mark as a "US China friendship year" (pun intended). There are many hot spots around the world. But US and China will try to behave like grown-ups as far as relationship is concerned. US will do whatever it takes to slow down Chinese semiconductor advancements. That is pretty much about it.
On Europe, it is going to get worse. When I predicted the Europe downturn at the beginning of a protracted Ukraine war (3-5 years), the events of Gaza type were not in play. Now Europe is going in a direction that is worse than I predicted back then. The European public is being fundamentally torn apart. Now I am seriously doubt about the survival of EU, which is definitely a first in my thinking. Europe is being squeezed in 4 directions: Russia, US, China and Global South.
Back to Taiwan, the current geopolitical state of affairs is much more favorable to China than the Chinese could possibly game the Taiwan issue. Now I think China will try to strangle Taiwan in a slow cooking fashion. Japan is on a down slope. South Korea is on a down slope. Europe is on a down slope. Australia is trying to balance. Canada is being Canadian. There is no hurry period. Let time do its own magic.
On Taiwan, the mainland social media has been more normal than as far as I can remember. This is a good sign in that the Chinese public have no illusion. This is also good for the system insiders that Taiwan is as a long game as US/China tango. On the other hand, the fact that the US media is unusually quiet on Taiwan speaks volume on the current state of geopolitical affairs.
On Gaza, US is slipping into a conundrum. An already divided American public is being torn further apart among different voting blocks. The most surprising part is that only UK meaningfully stands on the US side. US is doing a de-service to its united front with the Europe that is forged during the Ukraine war.
On Ukraine, US is distracted and tired.
On China, it is still in the process of digesting the real estate bubble that is 20 years in the making. All current manifested economic problems China is facing derive from that. The reason I am not using "busting" is that the current process was initiated by the current Chinese central government according to its own plans. The Chinese knew for a few years that this de-leveraging process would have to occur. It takes Xi's 3rd term to actually execute on a nation-wide scale. IIHO, it will take 5-10 years for the Chinese real estate markets to get back to normalcy.
On US, the election year is usually friendly to the stock markets. Noise levels are going to be high, but the boots on the ground are going to be more normal than media would portrait. US economy is going to muddle through, while the rest of the world is going to struggle at various degrees.
On US-China relation, I actually think 2024 will mark as a "US China friendship year" (pun intended). There are many hot spots around the world. But US and China will try to behave like grown-ups as far as relationship is concerned. US will do whatever it takes to slow down Chinese semiconductor advancements. That is pretty much about it.
On Europe, it is going to get worse. When I predicted the Europe downturn at the beginning of a protracted Ukraine war (3-5 years), the events of Gaza type were not in play. Now Europe is going in a direction that is worse than I predicted back then. The European public is being fundamentally torn apart. Now I am seriously doubt about the survival of EU, which is definitely a first in my thinking. Europe is being squeezed in 4 directions: Russia, US, China and Global South.
Back to Taiwan, the current geopolitical state of affairs is much more favorable to China than the Chinese could possibly game the Taiwan issue. Now I think China will try to strangle Taiwan in a slow cooking fashion. Japan is on a down slope. South Korea is on a down slope. Europe is on a down slope. Australia is trying to balance. Canada is being Canadian. There is no hurry period. Let time do its own magic.
Yikes turns out that liberalism is a venereal disease. All the frog bonking has turned Professor Liu into something of a Chinese liberal.
supercat
Major
Well, any region can declare independence. Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and even Shanghai can do it. The crucial part is how many other countries will recognize your sovereignty and are willing to establish diplomatic relationship with you. Unfortunately for Taiwan, only 13 countries out of 184 or so in the world recognize its independence. Out of these 13, only 4 countries, Vatican, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Haiti are not one earthquake away from sinking into the sea. Taiwan is more diplomatically isolated than ever.
I'm thinking that maybe China should openly allocate a special military budget for the reunification with Taiwan, for example, 0.5% of GDP, on top of all other military expenditures. This number can increase if necessary, acting as a deterrence against Taiwan Independence.
"Taiwanese ppl are very nice people, one of the nicest ppl I've ever met, totally different than Hongkong ppl"
Hongkong SDF members: "What. The. F-ck."
When the overlord is unsatisfied with his vassal. The overlord is Israel of course.