The old guards that favor reunification are in their 80s, 90s. Vast majority of people born and raised in Taiwan do not want reunification.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Is peace maintained by keeping the status quo, not reunification. That’s what most people want in Taiwan.
A different kind of treatment in the new world (outside of the 15% "garden") China vs America.
It's not like they have a say in the matter, they've been cut off from the political process.
And the status of unification is already in the past tense, the CPC in Beijing is the only legal recognized administrator of Taiwan. There sitting an organization there with several tens of thousands armed, proclaiming their own "leaders", doesn't change the status of unification, it just means there are holdouts, terrorists, that need to be expelled by negotiation or force.
Not so fast.
43% of the votes is hardly the land slide victory the DPP won in the last two elections. This was the DPP's worst showing yet, with 57% of the voters choosing the KMT or TPP.
Granted, much of this has nothing to do with China but with their own incompetence. Yet, a divided voter base means they don't have the mandate they had in the past. If they continue to be incompetent, sooner or later they will lose.
The danger now is that "independence Lai" will try to pull a fast one to direct attention away from Taiwan's failing economy. Like making a formal declaration of independence to try and force China into a war before it's ready.
We'll just have to see whether he's willing to make that gamble.
I think China is more than ready, although if America fully invades us, anything can happen since we both have nukes.
I've calculated before in the strategy thread that an air campaign to root out fighters in Taiwan will be 6-8 times as large as what Israel needed in Gaza. The PLA has roughly more than 10x as much forces in the same category and type compared to the IDF.
At the most conservative estimate (only counting currently inducted platforms, not counting suicide drones, not counting navy platforms, not counting any DF series), PLA will still able to output firepower at 150-200% of the IDF's effort in Gaza inside the disputed areas.
That, I believe, is enough to hold in Taiwan and strongly deter territorial aggression.
He won't, and he himself has said something like: 'Taiwan is already independent, so there is no need to declare independence'.
And it's the same with the rest in the DPP party, simply there to haul and get money, no one actually want to step on the red line and have military reunification happen.
Actually, only 40% voted for the DPP. I don't know if Petrolicious88 is Taiwanese, but I am and I'm not surprised by the result of the election. As China becomes more prosperous relative to Taiwan, more and more people will become pro-China. I have family members and friends in Taiwan and the United States who used to be ardently pro-independence but now many of them are open to the possibility of closer ties with China. Why? Most of them say that they are impressed by the PRC's technological achievements and ironically, the younger ones say that they are increasingly interested in Chinese popular culture (Douyin, dramas, music, etc.) Basically, what I've seen with my own eyes is largely consistent with the results of yesterday's election (declining support for the DPP, especially among young people).
That said, this is a victory for the pro-US camp but statements like "Taiwan is already gone. There’s zero soft power to win back Taiwan" are inconsistent with reality, in my opinion.
Some random thoughts on the Taiwan election.
This is the second time that the split of non-DPP parties handed the election to the DPP. This time CCP has fully grasped the reality that pattern was not an accident. Propaganda noises not withstanding, CCP realizes that no party wants to reunite with PRC. The nationalist party wants to have the cake and eat it too. The "white" party wants to play the spoiler in the middle. DPP continues to enjoy the status quo in Taiwan.
US keeps its leverage via DPP. It is not losing its influence vis-a-vis Taiwan.
The part that is hard to understand to the uninformed is that PRC is not losing Taiwan. The reality has been that Taiwan is a historical leftover that is hard to swallow and harder to digest. PRC has its hands full in achieving its stated goals of 2021, 2035 and 2049. 2021 was accomplished successfully. 2035 is becoming a challenge. 2049 would be a forgone conclusion if there was not big disruption on road to 2035. The biggest risk is and will be Taiwan.
So naturally, the #1 question CCP asks itself is, what to do about Taiwan. Zoom out to a 5-year geopolitical time series, and you will see that the best strategy to resolve Taiwan issue is not on Taiwan. It is everywhere else but Taiwan. By now, CCP and informed Chinese on mainland have settled to the reality, which is not all that bad. One factor is that Taiwan is actually going nowhere and time is on the PRC side. The status of Taiwan is always one parameter in the ongoing struggle between China and US, which is actually not about Taiwan at all.
I totally understand Chinese emotions and national psych in grand unification of the Chinese nation. It is always a journey throughout the Chinese history. What matters most is how the Chinese traverse through that journey. The end result is always the same in history: a united period followed by a divided period and life goes on.
I am not pessimistic or optimistic. I am watching the game being played out in the next 5 to 10 years. Some Taiwanese will become more desperate and tilt more toward PRC while majority want status quo, i.e., wanting to have the cake and eat it too. And that is not a bad thing to the people on mainland, because it means less baggages and more wiggle rooms.
The more interesting episodes of this Taiwan drama would be watching how Japan and South Korea act in the next 5 to 10 years.
This is the second time that the split of non-DPP parties handed the election to the DPP. This time CCP has fully grasped the reality that pattern was not an accident. Propaganda noises not withstanding, CCP realizes that no party wants to reunite with PRC. The nationalist party wants to have the cake and eat it too. The "white" party wants to play the spoiler in the middle. DPP continues to enjoy the status quo in Taiwan.
US keeps its leverage via DPP. It is not losing its influence vis-a-vis Taiwan.
The part that is hard to understand to the uninformed is that PRC is not losing Taiwan. The reality has been that Taiwan is a historical leftover that is hard to swallow and harder to digest. PRC has its hands full in achieving its stated goals of 2021, 2035 and 2049. 2021 was accomplished successfully. 2035 is becoming a challenge. 2049 would be a forgone conclusion if there was not big disruption on road to 2035. The biggest risk is and will be Taiwan.
So naturally, the #1 question CCP asks itself is, what to do about Taiwan. Zoom out to a 5-year geopolitical time series, and you will see that the best strategy to resolve Taiwan issue is not on Taiwan. It is everywhere else but Taiwan. By now, CCP and informed Chinese on mainland have settled to the reality, which is not all that bad. One factor is that Taiwan is actually going nowhere and time is on the PRC side. The status of Taiwan is always one parameter in the ongoing struggle between China and US, which is actually not about Taiwan at all.
I totally understand Chinese emotions and national psych in grand unification of the Chinese nation. It is always a journey throughout the Chinese history. What matters most is how the Chinese traverse through that journey. The end result is always the same in history: a united period followed by a divided period and life goes on.
I am not pessimistic or optimistic. I am watching the game being played out in the next 5 to 10 years. Some Taiwanese will become more desperate and tilt more toward PRC while majority want status quo, i.e., wanting to have the cake and eat it too. And that is not a bad thing to the people on mainland, because it means less baggages and more wiggle rooms.
The more interesting episodes of this Taiwan drama would be watching how Japan and South Korea act in the next 5 to 10 years.
It is basically impossible in any of the so-called democracies for leading parties to not have falling election results after multiple election cycles. That's like a natural law of that political system. Let's be completely honest and objective here.
If anything, the DPP result is actually an incredibly great one for real world. Third term and with this much margin is very successful result. Imagine this happening in EU, its very rare case, I would even say basically impossible to happen.
Imagine some party winning for 3 straight terms in EU for example and in this fashion - very rare/near impossible. This honestly practically shows that more and more people are pro-US, anti-PRC, pro-independence, in the Taiwan sadly.
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