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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
It might make sense to stop now because although Russia has stopped losing to Ukraine, its still too weak to conquer more Ukrainian lands via big offensives. Russia lacks Air Superiority over Ukraine and thus has been unable to bomb Ukraine to submission. Their only option then is to take land slowly backed by artillery. Ukraine can also slow down russian advance using mines, drones and other defensive tactics.
They have air superiority since the start of the conflict and can strike Ukrainian positions with near impunity. With Ukrainian populations depleted, there is no round 2, only where Russia decides to stop pushing.
The way current technological makeup works, Russia needs to mobilize several million soldiers to fully takeover Ukraine and may have to take millions of casualties to achieve it. War could get more and more unpopular in Russia as more soldiers die in a grinding war of attrition. So, there are risks for Putin to keep fighting. This is what I mean by exhaustion. The Russian public could get exhausted by war and they might revolt, foment a coup or do something else.
All far ahead hypothetics.
War exhaustion is real and even the most authoritarian governments may not stop it. Even the most nationalistic public can get tired of War and choose to topple their government even if it means humiliation.

This is what happened to both Germany and Russia in WW1. Both extremely nationalistic governments.

But again, as I said before, stopping rebuilding also have risks, since round 2 will be determined by who will rebuild better and faster. Russia or Ukraine backed by the West.
What exactly does Russia need to rebuild? They've lost less people than US did in Vietnam, and far less materiel (where for example US lost 5000+ helicopters alone to allied forces). US didn't exactly need to rebuild post Vietnam.
So, although continuing to fight is the current approach, but Putin is probably still looking to take a break if conditions are right as well. Both options have risks and rewards.
He's not lol. They've gone on record saying that they're not gonna negotiate with Ukraine anymore.

Push continues until either NATO sends so many troops/support they can stall it, or until Russia is done.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
They have air superiority since the start of the conflict and can strike Ukrainian positions with near impunity. With Ukrainian populations depleted, there is no round 2, only where Russia decides to stop pushing.

All far ahead hypothetics.

What exactly does Russia need to rebuild? They've lost less people than US did in Vietnam, and far less materiel (where for example US lost 5000+ helicopters alone to allied forces). US didn't exactly need to rebuild post Vietnam.

He's not lol. They've gone on record saying that they're not gonna negotiate with Ukraine anymore.

Push continues until either NATO sends so many troops/support they can stall it, or until Russia is done.

Putin has shown a consistent track record in the past to negotiate early ceasefire agreements and not going all the way, minimising costs.

He is a risk taker but also very cautious. He is not a war mongering maniac. If its more beneficial to keep taking more of Ukraine in smaller chunks at a time, taking breaks in between, he might take it.

While taking a break for a few years, It might make more sense for Russia to rebuild its army and air force to be able to fight in the modern battlefield with overwhelming force. Building up its stealth fighter fleet for example, or building a huge stockpile of missiles to do a truly massive barrage at the start of round 2. It could also build its ground force to the size of several million like it had during the soviet times. All of these improvements could raise the chance of a sudden blitzkrieg like victory in round 2.

Instead of grinding away slowly for several years, what if they pause for now, then rebuild their air and ground force in such a way as to neutralize Ukraine's air defenses and Ground Force and then do massive blitzkrieg couple of years from now and knock out Ukraine for good in a few days. That could be much less costly than keep fighting now.

But again as you said, there are risks to that approach as well. Maybe its better to keep fighting now and finish the job. We don't have all the facts. Probably not even Putin does. Decisions are often made based on imperfect information and priorities at that exact moment. Situation could compel Russia to pause early and rebuild. Or maybe this war could go on for years. Let's see how it plays out.
 
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FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Putin has shown a consistent track record in the past to negotiate early ceasefire agreements and not going all the way, minimising costs.

He is a risk taker but also very cautious. He is not a war mongering maniac. If its more beneficial to keep taking more of Ukraine in smaller chunks at a time, taking breaks in between, he might take it.

What did you think he tired to do from early 2022 to mid 2023. He offered the early ceasefire agreements. The west said no.

It might make more sense for Russia to rebuild its army and air force to be able to fight in the modern battlefield with overwhelming force. Building up its stealth fighter fleet for example, or building a huge stockpile of missiles to do a truly massive barrage at the start of round 2. It could also build its ground force to the size of several million like it had during the soviet times. All of these improvements could raise the chance of a sudden blitzkrieg like victory in round 2.

Instead of grinding away slowly for several years, what if they pause for now, then rebuild their air and ground force in such a way as to neutralize Ukraine's air defenses and Ground Force and then do massive blitzkrieg couple of years from now and knock out Ukraine for good in a few days. That could be much less costly than keep fighting now.

And let the Ukrainians and West restock their depleted munitions, vehicles, and equipment? Build new fortifications and dig trenches probably all the way to kiev. This is like saying the Soviets should have open ceasefire negotiations with the Nazis after the battle of Kursk.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
Looks like the ban on iPhones for government employees wasn't too crazy, huh?

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The only way apple can alleviate concern and suspicion is to build yet more factories in China and incorporate more Chinese component.
It is an opinion piece though. That said I do think the collective West is looking to bail on Ukraine. Israel takes precedence of course.
At least now the rest of the world knows now that due to americas corrupt oligarchy, China can distract America and the west by getting Iran or the arabs to threaten Israel, since the west’s ruling class are Jewish Zionists.
Remember Foxconn Wisconsin's 8K-AI-5G-HD factory? With TSMC and now Samsung delays, it's slowly turning into that type of fiasco.
Much like how the west up until the 2010s, tried to claim China couldn’t innovate due to its fixation on history and traditions and needed to westernise, it is clear that it is the Anglo led west itself which is unable to innovate due to their religious like supremacist racist beliefs.
 

supercat

Major
Ukraine does not need all of its territory, NYT says.

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This is some really "serious" effort to move the goalpost.

It probably makes sense for Russia to stop the fighting now with a ceasefire deal, rebuild for a couple of years and then start again to gain an even bigger chunk of Ukraine. For Ukraine and the west also, it might make sense to stop now, rebuild and try again to defeat Russia with a much bigger or more powerful force in the future.

But its not certain who will prevail in the next round. Will Russia succeed in its rebuilding efforts and completely crush Ukraine the next round. Or will Ukraine and the west succeed and Utterly defeat Russia.

Because of this uncertainty, they will probably just keep fighting until both parties are fully exhausted, and stopping becomes more lucrative than the uncertainty of round 2.

One thing is for sure, Russia will not stop trying to reunite all the east slavic lands and try to recapture as much of former Soviet Union as possible. They will keep trying, or collapse in the process.
Putin just said that Odessa is a Russian city. I doubt they will stop before they occupy a large chunk of the pink area in map 2.
Map 1:
AWmVWwT.jpg

Map 2:
HRdeyu5.jpg


So the two "Michaels" are indeed Canadian spies.

Canada in settlements talks with Michael Spavor, Michael Kovrig worth millions over China imprisonment: report​

  • Federal lawyers are in talks with Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, and are hoping to conclude settlements early in the new year, the Globe and Mail reported
  • The two were taken into custody in China soon after Canadian police detained Meng Wanzhou, the CEO of telecoms equipment giant Huawei, on a US warrant
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Not until 2027?

So much for India's demographic dividend:
 

solarz

Brigadier
And let the Ukrainians and West restock their depleted munitions, vehicles, and equipment? Build new fortifications and dig trenches probably all the way to kiev. This is like saying the Soviets should have open ceasefire negotiations with the Nazis after the battle of Kursk.
Exactly. A ceasefire right now will not lead to peace as neither side is tired of fighting yet. I seriously doubt Putin would not be aware of this.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
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Apparently, India‘s strategy of geopolitics involves stealing from Chinese companies then sucking up to the White Russians to mollify Chinese reprisals, typical of their white worshipping belief systems because Russi with or without Putin will eventually become China's junior partner.

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now we know why Indias exporting their useless mouths with feet oversea.
This is some really "serious" effort to move the goalpost.


Putin just said that Odessa is a Russian city. I doubt they will stop before they occupy a large chunk of the pink area in map 2.
Map 1:
AWmVWwT.jpg

Map 2:
HRdeyu5.jpg
TFW Ukraine goes form being the closest thing to a Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth superpower to just another Baltic Lithuanian Pissant border state of Russia.
 
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