US is already overstretched, losing its edge and running low on resources to sustain its hegemony, and yet it continues to expand militarily on two fronts (Europe, Asia) while trying to hold onto Middle East. If US keeps this up, it is inevitable that US will eventually exhaust all resources, runs itself into the ground and implodes. It is impossible for US elites and their vassals to not see this. It is conceivable that US is gearing up for an all-out pre-emptive attack against China a la Pearl Habour when oppertune time arrives. I propose a hypothetic scenario:
Circa 2030. China's economy has matched or slightly surpassed US economy, and China has achieved approximate technological parity with the entire Western world. Meanwhile US debt has hit 300% of GDP as US dollar's usage in global FX transactions have dropped to around 60%. Civil unrest across US has reached an all-time high and prominent researchers are being dismissed and imprisoned for "propagating Chinese Physik" instead of "American Science." Russia-Ukraine war has stalemated into low-level exchanges around the Dniper River for the last 5 years. US military budget has surged passed $1 trillion for the 3rd year in a row and have just managed to finish deployment of long-range cruise missiles across China's coastline. Unofficial US "advisors" in Taiwan has reached brigade strength and it is estimated that there is sufficient weapons stockpiled on the island to last 3 months of all out war. The 2nd and 3rd island chain has been fortified by US military, which has ballooned to 3 million troops. Suddenly, China expriences a national crisis akin to 2020 COVID outbreak, resulting in mass lockdowns, economic shutdown, and temporary demobilization of workforce. US leadership decides that the oppertunity has arrived for Taiwan to declare independence, followed by a massed pre-emptive strike against Chinese mainland regardless of China's reaction.
I am not saying that this is written in stone. As long as China continues to make no major strategic mistakes while beefing up its military deterrance and economy there is still hope that US decline can be managed. But judging from the way that US is speeding up its own decline through further overexertion I see war looming over the horizon.
Yes, Chinese tech companies have learned from US work culture, but not all companies. 军事化管理 is still prevalent amongst Chinese companies.
It's not impossible that America would feel pressured to begin a military operation on China, especially when China may get an equal or larger sized military.
But the communist leadership is very wily. They might not be a "strong" government like the Americans which can impose whatever domestic dictats and opinion changes freely, but when it comes to playing international relations, that's their strength.
China will more than likely call in favors and play cards that makes a special operation on Taiwan impossible. Events such as the Ukraine war will spring up whenever US thinks they're ready to launch, forcing them to respond. If not for the war last year, it's likely that America intended to send Pelosi to begin the negotiation with local anti government forces in order to spring a total invasion. However, because of the Ukraine war, US had to focus all it's energy there instead, and the meeting had nothing important in it.
China has plays ongoing in South America, in Central America, in Mexico, in Iran and in the Middle East. Any one of these could rapidly heat up into a situation where US must respond and grind it's time, money and possibly lives away, while China merely needs to provide back line support to the anti-US faction.
That is probably the major reason why China does not engage in military buildup and keeps the budget low. Its plans only call for a minimum to guard the home territories and technologies that can be used for proxy wars.
In essence it is like the surrounding from the countryside strategy. US would prefer to launch an assault on the metropolis where they can fight the China's garrison 1 on 1. But China will disperse forces into the countryside and whittle down the Americans together with local guerrillas from all across the world, until the US military can no longer sustain offensive operations.
