Erdogan seems to be outperforming expectations considering western media was spamming about how he was definitely going to loseThe rate of losses for Erdogan has gone down. My calculations put him at 50,9% when 90,6% of votes are counted. I still believe it'll go to the second round.
I base this on 56,2% of votes counted thus far.
EDIT: I base this on AA numbers, not ANKA