Miscellaneous News

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Isn't this a bit one sided now? What's Saudi Arabia getting? They're giving up on Syrian regime change, giving up in the war in Yemen and accepting Iran getting money and trade. What's in it for them?
They have lost in Syria years ago. The rebels still holding today are backed by Turkey, or US, not the Arabs.

I don't think the deal means that anyone is giving up Yemen. It is a cease fire right now. The deal only means that they will not resume fighting and should negotiate.

Iran is getting its own money frozen by US. It has nothing to do with Saudi. Trade is bilateral, Saudi is not obliged to trade with Iran if it does not want to.

Remember Saudi is not more innocent than Iran in the rivalry, both sides stopping or halting the confrontation are what both sides get. Saudi does not deserve more than Iran.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
They have lost in Syria years ago. The rebels still holding today are backed by Turkey, or US, not the Arabs.

I don't think the deal means that anyone is giving up Yemen. It is a cease fire right now. The deal only means that they will not resume fighting and should negotiate.

Iran is getting its own money frozen by US. It has nothing to do with Saudi. Trade is bilateral, Saudi is not obliged to trade with Iran if it does not want to.

Remember Saudi is not more innocent than Iran in the rivalry, both sides stopping or halting the confrontation are what both sides get. Saudi does not deserve more than Iran.
Saudi Arabia is playing its own game. Yemen and Syria are SA losses ofc

MBS was young and inexperienced at that time and he got carried away thinking that there was a strategic opening for SA to make gains. Well he wasn't wrong, there was indeed a big strategic opportunity for SA at those times.

What MBS got wrong is that he overestimated his military and country's power, and that's how Iran turned it around against SA. Recent years it seems that he has gotten some of his brain back and he is making shrewd moves though.

As for Iran, the less said about them the better. Their international influence has hit its peak but its national comprehensive power has hit rock bottom, they are in a huge mess internally.

So Saudi Arabia and Iran have probably realised that this past decade has been an overall mess/loss for them and, probably, with China's encouragement, they are willing to try a new approach and turn over a new page on their messy situation.

Saudi Arabia's purpose on this deal is clear. Vision 2030. Diversify, grow your economy as much as possible, build local industries, MIC etc. When 2030-2035 comes, let Iran see that making trouble with SA ain't worth the risks. So what MBS has to do in the meantime is to sit tight, make peace and friends with everyone, and basically play the dumb kid in the school. Basically, they are trying to copy China-style with their own Saudi Arabian characteristics slapped on top
 

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Herbert Hoover spoke fluent Chinese though. That makes him superior to around 98.5% of Biden’s think tankies.
According to Wikipedia

Upon arriving in China, Hoover developed gold mines near
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on behalf of Bewick and the Chinese-owned
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.
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He became deeply interested in
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, but gave up on learning the
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to
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.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
According to Wikipedia

Upon arriving in China, Hoover developed gold mines near
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on behalf of Bewick and the Chinese-owned
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.
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He became deeply interested in
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, but gave up on learning the
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to
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.

Oh ok. Only superior to 95% of Biden think tankies then.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
According to Wikipedia

Upon arriving in China, Hoover developed gold mines near
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on behalf of Bewick and the Chinese-owned
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.
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He became deeply interested in
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, but gave up on learning the
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to
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.
Uuhm a couple of hundred words is not even post beginner stage at least following the HSK model HSK 5 is like a couple of thousands words(2.5k words?) and maybe then you might think about making the jump to fluency.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Isolated EUV instruments are useless to China, even if given for free, because support for wear parts can be cut off at any time. It is scarcely better than them giving their word.

Now if they gave the full original research data, CAD files, design papers and source code for the EUV light source? That would be something.
plus the research team and their wifes/husbandes and children move to China.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Isolated EUV instruments are useless to China, even if given for free, because support for wear parts can be cut off at any time. It is scarcely better than them giving their word.

Now if they gave the full original research data, CAD files, design papers and source code for the EUV light source? That would be something.
It would be extremely unconventional, but there's technically nothing to stop them from stocking up on any consumables and replacement parts in advance. Normally, they'd want to lock you into service contracts and charge you for replacement parts and labor as needed, but the best companies are always willing to be flexible with their largest potential customers. In this hypothetical case, Chinese companies would need to train up their own people to handle this type of upkeep work. If the price is right, Chinese companies can probably scout out and hire retirees/former ASML employees to provide that training, though it would likely require ASML to provide waivers for some NDAs. If the price is right, ASML would probably be willing to provide those waivers. At the end of the day, it all comes down to money. If the answer is no, it's because you're not making the offer to the right person in the company, and/or you've made an inadequate offer.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
If the US wants China to help them out this time, sure.

But the price that the US will have to pay would have to be MASSIVE in order to be effective.

1. Complete and permanent lifting of all sanctions and bans against China on every field involved (economic, trade, technology, society, military, etc).

2. Taiwan will submit to absolute, eternal authority of Beijing. The PLA will be stationed on the island on a permanent basis.

3. Complete and permanent withdrawal of US military forces from the First Island Chain, and the complete demilitarization of the Second Island Chain for a period of 50 years.

4. A new international system will be formulated, and a new international rule of order will be established. China will become one of the major decision makers, with equivalent status, authority and power as the US-led West.

Of course, we already know that unless ZTZ-99A tank columns are moving freely across the National Mall of Washington DC, the US would never agree to any of those above. But the fundemental laws of nature will remain the same - Every debt incurred has to be repaid.

Whether the US will repay its debt through reconciliation with China, or be destroyed and fissile apart from within, or be flattened by nuclear hellfire - The choice is for Washington DC to make, not Beijing.
Won't be anything as dramatic as that, because Washington won't bite.

China itself already adequately defends Taiwan. It's a big mental block for America to give up claims there because they seem to have staked their national future on taking over a part of China in order to reverse the fortune of the cold war, and Taiwan is the only part that seems semi realistic to invade.

A deal needs to trick US into thinking "we will still have a fighting chance", only then can it work.

Lets not pretend it is a devastrating undertaking for China to lend its national power into temporarily keeping American afloat. Countries don't run on currency but rather the act of circulating currency. A deal with America will only mean more orders for China, more circulation of assets, which in the long run causes growth, not damage.

A modest deal, in the style of the Plaza accord, the forced transfer of some technologies, dramatic reduction in sanctions from both sides, a pledge to open American markets and grant legal equality to Chinese firms, that is in the realistic realm. In return China can bail out US like in 2008.
 
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