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plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Abominable said:
Suspending START is a big deal and a sad day for China. I was hoping Russia would just let the treaty expire in 2026, but the writing was on the wall with the recent inspection denial. An nuclear arms race between Russia and America is inevitable now.

It's also interesting he mentioned Americans were planning on testing a nuclear device. It's questionable whether that is true, Americans have no interest in turning this conflict into a nuclear one. They've been downplaying the nuclear threat to their own people from the start. I think the Russians are planning on a nuclear test just to show the west they aren't messing around.
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The end of START is no skin off China’s nose. Chinese nuclear expansion is about achieving true MAD with the US. That is a set number of nukes and missiles and not really impacted by any additional American nukes. It doesn’t matter if America can nuke China 10 times over if China can nuke America once over, dead is dead. Just like how the Soviet’s warhead advantage against the US didn’t count for anything during the Cold War.

If anything, America wasting resources on more nukes they will never use just speeds up China catching up and surpassing them conventionally across the board.

Frankly, the US would have to be stupid to get into a nuclear arms race with China right now, since China actually needs to boost its deployed missile and warhead count. America matching China silo for silo of new construction just means America has a massively excessive number of silos and warheads to waste money on maintaining.
 
Stryker

Stryker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Wow big development if it happens
Philippines is going all in with the US

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Joint FONOPS?


Ok bro, you got this. Talk about hubris
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Call their bluff and ram 'em. I bet you my entire net worth the US isn't gonna respond kinetically, just word salads and toothless sanctions or maybe not even the sanctions. Marcos needs a reality check real quick.
 
E

ember

New Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
An nuclear arms race between Russia and America is inevitable now.
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Why can't the US just say "we have enough nukes, we don't need to have the same amount of warheads"?

Unfortunately I don't think building cheap Russian nukes can force America to overextend its military budget and go bankrupt.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
plawolf said:
While a reverse Munich agreement where Russia freezes the war in Ukraine in exchange for the west unfreezing their assets, and promptly spends it all on new Chinese arms to come back for round 3 in 6-7 years would be poetic justice, I think the broader geopolitical landscape does not allow for it as China cannot afford to let the US and NATO off the hook so easily, since they will just come straight for China next if they are freed of their Ukrainian burden.

I think China will offer a serious, viable peace deal that Russia can live with and pre-agreed, and which is actually fair and reasonable for Ukraine and the EU, but which would be fundamentally unacceptable to the Americans. That is what Washington fears most, that China will come and tear their mask off so the world can see their true face and designs.

All of this Chinese lethal aid nonsense is just what the American government and MSM does best, pull lies out of their ass to create and control the narrative first before the other guy even gets to speak as a means to not have to address and deal with the actual points being raised.
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Likely America will never be free of "burdens" because there is no incentive limitation for China not to make new burdens as time goes along. And with the world's largest economy combined with a host of countries that started out as America hating to begin with to use as proxies, there isn't any capability limitation on creating new burdens either.

Right now there's not nearly enough overlap between the Ukraine and Russia positions to allow a peace which both would feel is acceptable.

If China is to force peace here, it would need to heavily threaten both sides, which means it enrages both sides in the long term. Not a good option.

So I believe the talks of creating a peace draft is just laying the most basic groundwork, finding points of commonality between the 2 sides. Political theater. And then later when people are actually exhausted enough to make compromises, more concrete terms will come.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
63f3f31e42f4463f3f31e42f45167693187063f3f31e42f3263f3f31e42f34.webp


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Yet another one in Medley, Florida.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628053907673948162
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
ember said:
Why can't the US just say "we have enough nukes, we don't need to have the same amount of warheads"?
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That never worked during the Cold War. Without a ABM treaty in place you want as many warheads as possible.
ember said:
Unfortunately I don't think building cheap Russian nukes can force America to overextend its military budget and go bankrupt.
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That isn't the point of a nuclear build up, nuclear weapons are by far the most cost effective military weapon. The point is to ensure you win a nuclear war.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Blah blah blah... If a self-inflicted economic crisis+recession combo is what it takes to stall WW3 between the US and China for even just a couple years, I hope China will do so.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628056981004079104

Apparently the US is still "willing" to not let nuclear arms race resume?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628047766189445120
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628055263784607745

While Washington DC is hysterically jumping up-and-down WRT "saynshion Rhashia!!!", Beijing and Moscow are cooperating and coordinating their next moves:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628055428264255490
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628058805517926401
 
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P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
So far Putin's speech has been an american sized Nothingburger, seems it will be more of the same.
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It is right there. step by step which is definition of a long conflict. it took him a year to mention what was already known.
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MOSCOW, February 21 - RIA Novosti. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking about the special operation in Ukraine, said that step by step, carefully and consistently, we will solve the tasks at hand.
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mass production of new weopons. i am sure they want to test it in prolong conflict closer to realistic conditions.
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"We will actively introduce the most advanced technologies that will ensure an increase in the qualitative potential of the army and navy. We have such developments, models of weapons and equipment in every area. Many of them are significantly superior in their characteristics to their foreign counterparts," Putin said during messages to the Federal Assemb
“The task now before us is to deploy their mass, serial production. Such work is underway, its pace is constantly increasing. ", - added the President of the Russian Federation.
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P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
But first, the Russians must put down their ego, accept the "new" reality that Russia is no longer a military superpower capable of taking the US head-on like the Soviet Union
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Russia is much more powerfull state than Soviet Union by every measure. pay attention to Arabs and Israelis that matters.
certain things are visible like Israel drone sales to Russia some are not.
i will even speculate that this Ukraine conflict will make Europe so weak that it will be more beholden to interests of Middleast which already is. from airline routes to foot ball clubs to supply hardware to Israel chip industries.
did any European comes to France rescue on Aukus deal?
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