After the example of the Song Dynasty Chinese leadership would be complete morons if they gave in to pressure and tried to kick the Russians while they are down.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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"Though Western surface-to-air missile systems have bolstered Ukraine’s defensives, the visit marked the rare occasion when a U.S. president has traveled to a conflict zone where the U.S. or its allies did not have control over the airspace. The White House would not go into specifics but said that “basic communication with the Russians occurred to ensure deconfliction” shortly before Biden’s visit in an effort to avoid any miscalculation that could bring the two nuclear-armed nations into direct conflict."
Appeasement of the US only leads to extermination
Just ask the Native Americans
And Saddam who got both his sons murdered , his lineage wiped out and his own neck stretched by the US after he foolishly agreed to destroy his own stock of missiles on the false promise that the US would reconsider attacking Iraq if Saddam would in good faith demonstrate he didnt have WMDs
Let me make it clear, I still think that the invasion of Ukraine is a boneheaded and poorly throughout decision. But it would be even more boneheaded for China to create an antagonistic nuclear power up north by allowing the boneheads to collapse.
DW interview with former PLA Colonel Zhou Bo. As usual, the DW reporter is asking barbed questions, but to his credit, he did not interrupt Zhou Bo's answers. 20mins + long but an interesting interview
The DW reporter is basically trying to get Zhou Bo, a Chinese official to condemn Russia undermining Ukrainian sovereignty. But Col. Zhou Bo answers that the Russia-Ukraine War was indeed an undermining of sovereignty, but China understands the context of the war, and that Russia has its own reason to do what it did. He also says that this war is not what China desires, but it is also not China's business. On his statement about: "Putin won't win this war, but he can't lose the war", it was somewhat taken out of context. He was saying that as a criticism to the West for fueling the war with ever more arms, money, and political support. Because with ever greater escalation by the West, it could lead to a stalemate situation, which is potentially very dangerous, as both sides cannot lose.
Towards the end the DW reporter had to ask about Taiwan. Zhou Bo said that China will seek peaceful reunification first, and China had set no timetable for that to happen. Nevertheless, China reserves the right to use force only in extreme scenarios. A pretty standard answer.
Its nice to see Mr. Zhou Bo handling a Western reporter quite well, and that reporter giving him some level of respect.
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Basically Zelensky is making an indirect threat to China. Because a World War would most definitely involve China. This is months after he expressed his support for intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Zelensky should not expect anything from China at this point. He is a political clown living on borrowed time. Either Russia defeats Ukraine and he is out of office, or the Nazis decide to remove him from office before that. Besides, China will never antagonize a neighbouring major power with the world's largest nuclear arsenal for the benefit of a clown.
No indications it will end in a Korean style armistice yet, both sides are still keen on fighting. Even if it does, the Korean war lasted three years, this hasn't even reached it's first year yet.
Put it this way - if offering a peace proposal was such a big propaganda victory, why don't the Americans do it? They could easily threaten Zelensky to reduce or withdraw aid to get him to agree to whatever terms they think is fair. China is big enough now that it doesn't need to score cheap political points from such public theatre. That's the sort of thing countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey do.
If China mediates in any way it will be the biggest geopolitical blunder in modern history IMO. Instead of being thankful to the Chinese for ending the war, the Americans will use it to point to China's "growing influence" and continue the war mongering.
Lots of Americans post on here. Ask any of them if they consider ending a $200 billion dollar a year expense a slap on the face. A real slap on the face would be getting the Americans to increase that number.
There's also a chance it could lead to a "stabbed in the back" myth being created in Russia where future generations think (correctly) they could have won the war if it wasn't for a peace treaty imposed by the Chinese. Just because the government agree to something doesn't mean it will be perceived the same way by the public and future governments.
The best policy is to consider it a minor regional conflict in Europe and maintain good relations with both sides. Treat it the same as if Uganda and Kenya had a war.
Guanqi is not a politician, and he is thinking about it purely through a military lens. While he is entirely correct that there is no legal barrier, there are political diplomatic ones.
China could easily arm Russia through North Korea or Iran and maintain plausible deniability. Factories could be set up in Russia itself.
I'm not convinced lethal aid is what Russia needs, it seems to be more the non-lethal aid (NVG, electronics etc). All of that it is already getting.
As long as the UN doesn't side against Russia, China can transfer pretty much anything besides nukes. The question if Russians really need that so much.
For China, the war is a way to secure Russian loyalty and strike against the pro Western bloc in Russia. For Russia, the degree of success in the war will determine how much they can negotiate from China in terms of international standing.
If Putin asks for a hundred MLRS and hypersonic missiles from Xi, he would essentially be acknowledging that the relationship between them is only slightly above the level of Zelensky - Biden. However, if Russia, mostly alone using only soft aid such as electronics, duel use parts, nvg etc from China, then they would be more like near peers in the same alliance.
We don't know how the proposed peace will look. Besides, Zelensky doesn't seem intent to give up until he's personally dragged out of office. Putin too would not tolerate anything but guarantees that the ethnic Russians of the Donbass will be self ruled.
Like you say, there is plenty of fighting energy left.
More likely than not, this is just political theater to lay down an initial draft for an eventual peace deal.