Interview with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban:
The big questions were about the Russia-Ukraine war. Orban is a goat among the NATO sheep. He has from virtually the beginning pushed hard for a cease fire and a peaceful settlement - not out of any particular love for the Russians, but out of concern for the fate of Hungary, and Europe. He has been falsely smeared as a Putin shill, but he genuinely doesn't seem to give a rat's ass.
Orban said that the West needs to understand that Putin cannot afford to lose, and will not lose, because he's up for re-election next year, and he cannot run as the president who lost a war. What's more, he said, Russia cannot allow NATO to establish a presence in Ukraine. The time has long passed when Russia might have been able to conquer Ukraine, or install a friendly regime. Had Russia won a quick victory, that might have been possible, but it's hopeless now. Therefore, said Orban, Russia's goal is to make Ukraine an ungovernable wreck, so the West cannot claim it as a prize. At this, they have already succeeded. "It's Afghanistan now," he said. "The land of nobody." (Meaning: No Man's Land.)
The West doesn't understand that time is on Russia's side in Ukraine. Russia is a huge country, and can mobilize a vast army.
Ukraine is already running out of troops. When that happens, then what?
"We are in big, big trouble," Orban said, of the West. If Russia's coming spring offensive proves successful,
then the NATO countries are going to be faced with the question of do we send in soldiers to fight for Ukraine? This is not something Orban thinks the American people are considering, but it is front to mind among a growing number of Europeans, whose countries stand to be devastated if war spreads.
Really? NATO troops fighting Russians in Ukraine?
Yes, said Orban. It sounds crazy today,
"but if you look at the tendency of how we got to this point today, it can't be ruled out."
The West is "in a war with Russia. That's the reality," he said. "Every day we are moving further in."
To add clarity that was plain from the context of his discussion, Viktor Orban doesn't want the West to be in a war with Russia. He is pushing for peace, and has been from the beginning, saying nobody wins from this war. But he says that far too many Westerners are deluding themselves about what's really happening -- and what could happen. The West might think it's not in war with Russia, but by sending more and more weapons, and getting closer to actual troop intervention, Western leaders are playing an extremely dangerous game with themselves, with Russia, and with Western publics. A journalist asked the prime minister if he thought the war could go nuclear. "I can't exclude that they would use it," he said, of the atomic bomb. He clarified that he was talking about tactical battlefield nukes, not mushroom clouds over Warsaw and Berlin -- "but I can't exclude that either." If Ukraine somehow, using Western weapons, gets to the point of crossing the border into Russian territory, then the future of the world will be so bright the West will have to wear shades.
Someone pointed out that the Russians have had a sorry battlefield performance to this point. Yes, said Orban, it's true. But if you look at Russian history, this is how it goes with the Russians at war. They start out poorly, but after a while, they figure things out, and then become hard to stop. He expects that will be the case this time. He also mentioned at the start of the session that Russia's being pushed into an alliance with Iran is extremely dangerous for Israel, and expressed hope that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, whose adult son was sitting at the table, could become a peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine. Though Ukraine has had some amazing successes against Russia, Orban said in the long term, he can't see that we in the West are on the winning side, especially considering Russia's manufacturing capacity.
Orban talked about being the lone dissenter among the 27 European Union leaders on Ukraine war policy. He said it's very frustrating, because his colleagues in leadership won't debate the wisdom of this war. Why not?
"They don't know who they are," he said bluntly.
He explained that if you asked them to define themselves in relation to the war, they would say,
I am the leader of a country standing on the right side of history. That conviction, and being pressed hard by Washington, as well as "fear of the liberal media," is what motivates their thinking - not a consideration of what's in the best interest of their own countries. Orban said he sees his role as the elected leader of Hungary to help his people deal with the challenges they face today, and to prepare them for tomorrow's challenges. "But I would be the only one to understand [the job] that way," he said.
Orban made a pointed, and poignant, remark about the Germans in the current war: "The Germans are suffering because they know what's in their national interest, but they're not able to say it." He meant that the German leadership knows it has no business being involved in a war with Russia, but is, for whatever reasons, unable to say no to Washington.
Someone raised the possibility of a coup d'état in Russia that removed Putin. Orban reacted strongly, saying that there is nobody in line to succeed Putin who would be anything but more hawkish. That would solve nothing.
