Miscellaneous News

From the way South Korea is posturing, it seems likely if something were to happen in Taiwan, something would happen in Korea too.

Overbom said:

So is anyone going to create a thread for this Taiwan Crisis or is it too early? Gives me flashbacks of the Ukrainian thread when it started with "Crisis" and then to "War" lol

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The Ukraine one was a lot more obvious cause Putin himself made a lot of references to military action and Russia was very public about its military build up by the Ukraine border in December 2021. Also Biden had to come out and say U.S. won't be defending Ukraine.

If Pelosi trip is set for August and Xi formally speaks on it, then someone create a thread...

escobar said:

CN do nothing every time US send arms to taiwan but we are supposed to believe they will really escalate because of Pelosi ? Biden should just stop Pelosi from going to taiwan but should announce a big military shipments to Taiwan just after talking with Xi.
Unless CN can deter US from selling arms to Taiwan, all this fuss about Pelosi visit is rather silly

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Pelosi is who exactly? Come on dude, let's drop the pretense as to her place and importance in the higherchy in U.S. government. The arms sale has been ongoing for decades and that has never been a trigger point for China to react in a provocative manner. The 1996 Taiwan crisis happened, was that due to Arms sale? Or was it caused by then President of Taiwan wanting to visit his Alma mater in the U.S.?

Don't conflate arms sales with U.S. current serving political figure as nothing burger or in the same breath. The symbolism behind such a visit evokes and will invoke strong passion from all Chinese people that have their heads not stuck in Uncle Sam's fat behind.

In any case, in your estimation, how do you foresee the Chinese government and in this case, Xi will react to Pelosi's impending visit? Should he just be like eh, whatever it's just Pelosi, nothing burger and expect his tenure to be a smooth sailing to his 3rd term? Let's be real and honest with ourselves for a moment here.

escobar said:

CN do nothing every time US send arms to taiwan but we are supposed to believe they will really escalate because of Pelosi ? Biden should just stop Pelosi from going to taiwan but should announce a big military shipments to Taiwan just after talking with Xi: Get something real for giving up something symbolic. Unless CN can deter US from selling arms to Taiwan, all this fuss about Pelosi visit is rather amusing

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Did all those NATO wunderwaffe weapons help Ukraine much? PLA has no fear of the type of kinetic weapons the US is willing to sell to Taiwan.
What really helps Ukraine are the AWACs, ELINTs, electronic warfare sensors, and sensor fusion systems. HIMAR would have been far less effective without timely sensor data provided by NATO. The US aren't gonna provide them to Taiwan.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Pelosi is who exactly? Come on dude, let's drop the pretense as to her place and importance in the higherchy in U.S. government. The arms sale has been ongoing for decades and that has never been a trigger point for China to react in a provocative manner. The 1996 Taiwan crisis happened, was that due to Arms sale? Or was it caused by then President of Taiwan wanting to visit his Alma mater in the U.S.?

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The arms sale has been ongoing for decades because CN can't still deter US from doing that. So China can't react in a provocative manner.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Don't conflate arms sales with U.S. current serving political figure as nothing burger or in the same breath. The symbolism behind such a visit evokes and will invoke strong passion from all Chinese people that have their heads not stuck in Uncle Sam's fat behind.

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US selling arms to TW should be the thing that should invoke strong passion from all Chinese people that have their heads not stuck in Uncle Sam's fat behind.

Bellum_Romanum said:

In any case, in your estimation, how do you foresee the Chinese government and in this case, Xi will react to Pelosi's impending visit? Should he just be like eh, whatever it's just Pelosi, nothing burger and expect his tenure to be a smooth sailing to his 3rd term? Let's be real and honest with ourselves for a moment here.

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I'am expecting a big military exercise in TW ADIZ and in SCS. I don't think PLAAF will overfly Taiwan or shoot down Pelosi plane.

xypher said:

Except that isn't true, China would need to nuke only the US and even 300 nukes is enough to completely collapse the US forever. Come on people, when I read those stories about how the US will attack China with nukes I keep thinking that I am on some kids forum, not on a serious defence portal. The US is led by opportunists whose primary goal is to stay in power, not some fanatical ideologues who are ready to die in nuclear fire.

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I don't even think the world knows who is leading the US right now. Is it the senile Biden? If so then the world is really in trouble. The people with real power might be persuaded by fanatical ideologues. Just look at Bolton, Pompeo, and the rest of the gang. This is why discussions about nukes can never be ruled out.

The land of fear.

vincent said:

Did all those NATO wunderwaffe weapons help Ukraine much? PLA has no fear of the type of kinetic weapons the US is willing to sell to Taiwan.
What really helps Ukraine are the AWACs, ELINTs, electronic warfare sensors, and sensor fusion systems. HIMAR would have been far less effective without timely sensor data provided by NATO. The US aren't gonna provide them to Taiwan.

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Even if PLA fear the type of kinetic weapons the US is willing to sell, they can't deter US

Abominable said:

I don't think that would be an appropriate response to an American violation of Chinese airspace. If any country flew into American airspace after being warned not to, what do you think the response would be? Americans shoot down planes that don't follow orders in international airspace.

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There's precedent here too. KAL 007 was carrying US congressman Larry McDonald and got shot down by Russia anyhow when their plane invaded Sakhalin and Kamchatka. They didn't do jack shit.

escobar said:

Even if PLA fear the type of kinetic weapons the US is willing to sell, they can't deter US

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What makes you think that? Try sell nukes or Tomahawks and see what happens.