LOL, delusional.
America is currently telling Africans to stop buying Russian wheat. Do you think they are going to ignore the $20 billion a year that India is pumping into Russia's military?
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America is currently telling Africans to stop buying Russian wheat. Do you think they are going to ignore the $20 billion a year that India is pumping into Russia's military?
escobar
Brigadier
One way or another, their containment strategy against CN will work even if it's limited
If they wanted to contain China they'd be trying to make a deal with Russia, not fighting them. We knew this was the plan before the war stopped that by the leaked conversation from the German admiral in India.
Clearly the China containment strategy is on the backburner for now.
I am really interested in hearing your own thoughts (not just some articles, twitter feeds) on this particular point for a change. What would a limited Chinese containment would look like that would be considered remotely successful with strategic implications. What area(s) is the U.S. and it's vassals are going to make the most impact against China. If your contention to this is that China's economy will be dramatically weakened that outcome would also directly impact, if not crater a lot of the countries who has China as their number 1 trading partner, and largest buyer of their products, good, and services.
The strategic competition between the U.S. and China is truly about economic power above everything else. We all know that without economic power there's simply no military power to sustain it with deriving from the scientific research that's essentially powered by the financial power stemming from a very strong, and robust economy.
The U.S. as strong as they are economically doesn't possess the same amount of economic strength per capita they once had back in the 90's. The China that existed then was weak across the board unlike the China of today.
I'd like to learn what the US means by containment. For the Soviet Union, it was obvious. It was stopping the spread of communism and Soviet expansion. This was achieved through signing mutual defense treaties with 40+ nations and regime changes. The US read the Soviet Union's unwillingness to challenge the US head-on well.
I don't think cold war strategies would work against China well. China's influence is not dependent on military power or ideologies. It's economic. There are no ways the US can stop China's influence from spreading at the expense of the US influence as long as China's economy grows faster. It is trying to limit countries' cooperation with China to slow down China's development but that slows down the other side too. It is trying to make China's neighbors stronger so they can be more assertive against China but there are three problems with that.
1- A lot of China's neighbors are not US allies. India and Vietnam are not US allies regardless of Foreign Policy articles.
2- A lot of those countries have problems with each other too. For example, Vietnam and the Philippines dispute each other too, and Japan and South Korea aren't friendly at all. This is the primary reason why there is no Asian NATO.
3- Selling weapons to East Asian countries is useless. China is not going to attack these nations and they are not going to go to war against China in a Taiwan contingency.
I am quite bullish on China, to be honest. The US containment efforts started in 2011 with the pivot to the pacific. There are very few results to show for it except ruined Sino-Australian relations.
India has never stopped being part of containing China ever since 1949, CIA/USA supporting Tibetan insurgence since 1950s, flirting with USSR, receiving weapons used in 1962 war. And the endless weapon buying from everyone all over the world. So really there is nothing new, nor any more significant.
This new agreement is just something like replacing old slippers with new shoes. The new shoes will work as much as the old slippers worked. Or they won't work just like the old slippers. Working or not is just up to one's desire of feeling good.
Lets not be shy.
Whatever was thought of as a China containment policy before, is on its deathbed now.
The world is separating into two, where one is American lead, and the other side don't give a shit about that.
This further decoupling, as illustrated by these Western sanctions against Russia, will be the impetus for more and more decoupling for years to come, even decades.
Unless Western Europe caves in, which is a decent chance, then we have to expect decoupling to deepen.
But when does decoupling equate to containment?
It does not.
It just means two spheres of influence, one American lead, the other sphere the don't give a shit, who really do not give a shit about the Americans.
If the Americans cannot influence that don't give a shit sphere, that means their power is going down.
Lets ask an honest question. Which sphere will be bigger, the American lead sphere or the don't give shit sphere?
Incidentally, the don't give a shit sphere, seem to be growing across the Eurasian land mass, with extensive ties to the Middle East, Africa, South America.
Just with Russia, China, ASEAN, Middle East, that can supply anyone with everything they need, with China and ASEAN cemented with their RCEP deal. The South Americans can supply soybeans, and Africa can sell all sorts of raw materials.
The don't give a shit sphere is very ready for a new world order.
That is why they don't give a shat.
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solarz
Brigadier
I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to say with ACLs and Regex, but if you think the GFW is only there to prevent Chinese people from seeing unauthorized content, then you are woefully misinformed.
The GFW was instrumental in the existence of the current Chinese online ecosystem. It is what allows China to have a completely independent internet. This has ramifications far beyond censoring sensitive keywords or preventing Chinese netizens from engaging in meme wars with Indians or Westerners.
First of all, the GFW allowed China to control the data of it's own citizens. Consider that for every other country in the world, except NK, all of their data are within easy reach of the CIA, it is difficult to overstate the importance of this achievement.
Secondly, the GFW allows China to keep a lid on populism and give the government latitude in decision making. The US government, for all their control of big tech, is falling prey to exactly this kind of populism because they do not have a system in place to moderate extremist content. It's the very reason why the US has a million covid deaths, and is in the process of destroying is own pillars of power first under Trump and now under Biden.
So there is no doubt the GFW has been immensely beneficial to Chinese development. What is debatable is the direction the GFW should take in the future. It's clear that while the GFW created the Chinese big techs, it is now also hindering them in their global expansion.
escobar
Brigadier
Unlike RU, CN have some issues with India which make them possible partner for a containment strategy.
Actually, it is the other way around. China finally realized how untrustworthy and unreliable that the EU is. From the Chinese perspective, if it sees the EU doesn't have any independent policies, then China would no longer actively engage with the EU. In addition, China learns the Russians lesson to never trust the West and would try everything in its power to develop an alternative against the Western financial system.