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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
pmc said:
Germany will have to deal with Indian power. Indian is i think the largest group of international students in Crimea as they are only mentioned. who dont like this 4D chess to see who can be twisted the most. basically every country will be impacted.

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America is targeting every country in the world right now but I think they are overreaching. India will be a primary target because of the fact they are Russia's biggest military importer. It's mainly private diplomacy for now as they are hopeful that India will switch. No signs of that yet though.

At some point America will just say to India, we won't support you if China invades. That will be a big blow for India as Modi has been trying to move into the American sphere for years now.

I don't think India is doing Russia a favour for altruistic reasons, it's just business. Like typical Indians, they have driven a very hard bargain for the oil they are importing from Russia. I think it is around half of current market rates right now, much less than what China is paying. Even with the military, you can't replace that overnight, and what will they replace it with? American platforms that they can't afford? Russian platforms are the only cost effective one given that the Chinese option isn't available for them.

They are in a tough situation with no winning outcome IMO.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
India got the oil at a substantial discount because they increased their purchases at a time Russia found it difficult to unload their oil in Europe. They got a discount of as much as $30 USD a barrel at one point. But from what I heard the discount has substantially decreased since. To more like $10-15 USD as Russia is finding alternate buyers. The US releasing a third of its strategic oil reserves over the next three months, like a million barrels a day, is probably going to end up destroying oil production worldwide and will likely lead to a major oil crunch come next winter. But since the crunch will come after the next US elections the government does not care basically.

China should probably increase their strategic oil reserves this year so when winter comes they won't be caught flat footed.
 
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T

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
India got the oil at a substantial discount because they increased their purchases at a time Russia found it difficult to unload their oil in Europe. They got a discount of as much $30 USD a barrel at one point. But from what I heard the discount has substantially decreased since. To more like $10-15 USD as Russia is finding alternate buyers. The US releasing a third of its strategic oil reserves over the next three months is probably going to end up destroying oil production worldwide and will likely lead to a major oil crunch come next winter.
But since the crunch will come after the next US elections the government does not care basically.
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The US running out of oil reserves will drive oil prices way higher.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
India got the oil at a substantial discount because they increased their purchases at a time Russia is finding it difficult to unload their oil in Europe. They got a discount of as much $30 USD a barrel at one point. But from what I heard the discount has substantially decreased. To more like $10-15 USD since as Russia is finding alternate buyers. The US releasing a third of its strategic oil reserves over the next three months is probably going to end up destroying oil production worldwide and will likely lead to a major oil crunch come next winter.
But since the crunch will come after the next US elections the government does not care basically.
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I heard it was a $30 discount fixed on the pre-war price. India is such a big market for oil it works out well for both. Americans always put pressure on India's Iranian oil purchases but I bet they are begging India to buy from anyone but Russia right now.

I think the worldwide oil consumption is too big for American strategic reserves to make a difference. Releasing it is a one time thing and is doomed to fail if the war prolongs. And if OPEC does join in the party and enforce a new embargo as I believe they are considering, it will turn out to be a critical mistake.
 
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Will76

New Member
Registered Member
9dashline said:
War didnt start until end of Feb, wonder whats the stat for March or April...

This is Mad Max level of collapse
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Apperantly they've been hitting record highs for the past couple of months looking at news stream. As you said the war effect isn't counted yet. Hyperinflation soon!
 
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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I hope this conflicts drags out for months if not years. The longer the better for China, as Europe and Russia both gets weakened. Two less idiots to contend with, and US will be preoccupied with Russia for a long time. If Russia ends the war quickly, then attention might snap back on China.
 
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