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NiuBiDaRen

Brigadier
Registered Member
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"A senior U.S. official clarified that the promise of 15 bcm this year is actually a commitment to try and help convince companies in Asia or elsewhere that were expecting cargoes this coming winter to agree to send them to Europe instead."

EU is doomed.
I suppose they could pay a huge premium on spot market and wrestle spot LNG from India and Pakistan. But 15bcm? Not sure how you gonna get that much lol.

By the time they realize they do need Russia, Russia would have completed the interconnector to send gas to China instead...
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Looks like the middle east will become a third bloc and the EU not the Euro will disintegrate.

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1.2K views1 hour ago
I had a feeling this was coming. I think they are now just waiting for Europe to stop buying Russian gas. When they do that OPEC will announce an embargo to countries friendly to Israel.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
This means the US will be able through its proxies to destroy Russia or China in a first strike. While the proxies will be convinced they will have a fighting chance thanks to the ABM systems. Except they won't. The whole point is to make Russia and China lose their silo weapons. Then the US can use their much larger attack submarine fleet to hunt Russian and Chinese strategic submarines and destroy their capability for second strike. This is some dangerous thinking here. The world will be closer to nuclear war than it was in the 1960s.
Time to update the Nuclear retaliation doctrine so that, the country who provided the nuclear weapon that is used in the attack, will be retaliated as well. For extra measures against salami slicing, countries that took part in or provided support for the aggressor country's nukes, will be a target for nuclear retaliation, putting the responsibility on the provider.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Is it possible for google or apple to geoblock phones based on location? Limit function and services if they are in Russia, or Russian occupied Ukraine.
Yes. You can basically check the international part of the phone number. That has the country code. Or you can check the GPS/GLONASS position of the user. But that is more finicky.

Looks like the middle east will become a third bloc and the EU not the Euro will disintegrate.
Well, the Middle East being the responsible ones. Now this is a complete shit show. Lol.
Did you see how the Houthis bombed some oil refinery in Saudi Arabia the other day and now announced a 3 day unilateral ceasefire.
They claim they will stop strikes if the Saudis stop bombing Yemen and let them ressuply in the ports.
It remains to be seen if this detente will last though.

I had a feeling this was coming. I think they are now just waiting for Europe to stop buying Russian gas. When they do that OPEC will announce an embargo to countries friendly to Israel.
*Snap* Nah. The Saudis and other Gulf countries seem to have come to an understanding with Israel. The Sunni and Shia will continue their ninja war with proxy fights as usual.

I suppose they could pay a huge premium on spot market and wrestle spot LNG from India and Pakistan. But 15bcm? Not sure how you gonna get that much lol.
By the time they realize they do need Russia, Russia would have completed the interconnector to send gas to China instead...
It can be done. But it is so stupid. Russia sends the LNG it used to sell to Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, to China, and the LNG that would go to China goes to Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea instead. There is only one problem. It is probably locked in long term gas contracts. Probably Qatari and Russian ones. From this conversation it seems US doesn't want or cannot change their contracts to do this. Complete shit show. And 15bcm is a drop in the bucket. I think it won't even totally cover LNG Russia sells to Europe let alone the piped gas.

You see there is a problem with switching Russian LNG sales from Europe to China. The Suez Canal route is really long. And the Northern Sea Route is closed in the winter. What the West wants to do will cause a traffic jam in the Suez Canal.
 
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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Yes. You can basically check the international part of the phone number. That has the country code. Or you can check the GPS/GLONASS position of the user. But that is more finicky.

Well, the Middle East being the responsible ones. Now this is a complete shit show. Lol.
Did you see how the Houthis bombed some oil refinery in Saudi Arabia the other day and now announced a 3 day unilateral ceasefire.
They claim they will stop strikes if the Saudis stop bombing Yemen and let them ressuply in the ports.
It remains to be seen if this detente will last though.


*Snap* Nah. The Saudis and other Gulf countries seem to have come to an understanding with Israel. The Sunni and Shia will continue their ninja war with proxy fights as usual.
Arab countries that have opened relationships with Israel are all either monarchies or military dictatorships. There has been no change in public feelings towards Israel in any of them. Arab countries ran by a populist movements like Syria and Iran are still very anti-Israel.

The move towards Israel was engineered by America by Trump via his zionist son in law Jared Kushner. He gave up American political leverage for the benefit of Israel. With Morocco it was America recognising Moroccan claims to Western Sahara. For Saudis it was improving relations after King Salman executed that journalist.

The problem with that is like money American leverage isn't unlimited. The Ukraine situation has caused a massive shift in middle eastern dynamics, even though most people haven't realised it. The fact that America went from threatening war with Iran for 40 years to begging them to sign a nuclear deal in a month says everything.

America doesn't have much leverage left in the Middle East. All they have are the military equipment and their bases. Even the Saudis are now moving away from American technology and moving towards China and Russia.

There is still strong anti-Israeli sentiment in all Arab countries, whatever their government's relationship with Israel is. Even if you're a dictatorship you still need to listen to your people to some degree.

American politicians seem to have very short term memories. There were reasons why they've spent decades trying to move away from middle eastern oil dependency. Now they've suddenly reversed all of that and made themselves more dependent than they've ever been.

The Sunni-Shia rivalry is very old, but the one thing they both agree on is Israel is bad. All Iran needs to do is arrange for some of their proxies to fire a few missiles at Israel to trigger a response. The inevitable Israeli reaction will trigger outrage in all Arab countries just as it always does. The next thing you know all OPEC countries announce a reduction in exports to all western countries who support Israel's actions in Palestine/Syria. Pretty soon America will have choose what is more important to them. Israel or Ukraine/eastern Europe. Just as unreasonable as the west is being vis a vis Ukraine, the Arabs can be with Israel. The west can't "win" on both fronts.

To me the situation seems like a bonfire waiting for a spark to light it, and an embargo is inevitable if the move away from Russia gas becomes permanent.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Unfortunately I think the younger generation in Japan will lap this up eventually. The older generation in Japan are seriously against nuclear weapons. But the younger generations might be more receptive. This will increase escalation in the region. Especially with the ABM systems being put in place. Right now the US is working on putting the Dark Eagle hypersonic nuclear missile in Germany. You bet they will want to put the same thing in Japan next.

.....
In a larger sense, young generations of JP and KR are brainwashed and neutered in terms of modern-day reality. My hunch is that they are willing to sleep-walk into an abyss as long as the other side is China. You would think they have IQs. But ultimately they are clueless. I had a KR co-worker many years ago who looked up to me as a senior tech lead. But on occasions he insisted that Taiwan is never part of China. And he said his was a mainstream view in KR.
 
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