Has anyone been following the Nickel price fiasco?
I'm still a bit confused at what's happening
He made the wrong bet, shorting himself, but the price went up like crazy, and he's the number 1 producer...
lol
Qingshan acquired some nickle mines in Indonesia, and was expecting nickle price to fall due to future productivity. It's a common mean in international commodities trading to hedge the price and lock down the profit margin by shorting or longing futures, yet Qingshan didn't have the kind of nickle commodities exchanged in LME. Therefore, Qingshan made a deal with a Russian company to swap Russian's higher grade nickle product if any buyer wants the futures delivered.
That is where the problem begins. As Russia is in conflict with Ukraine, commodities are banned by western countries, and Qingshan was basically naked trading (cannot deliver the commodities) as a consequence, vulnerable to all the risks in futures trading.
Glencore now saw the opportunity to rob the lion's share of Qingshan, so it managed to squeeze the price even higher and demanded instant delivery of nickle commodities for the near mature futures contracts when clearly Qingshan cannot.
Qingshan has to seek for help from the government. While western countries used such dispecable ways to block normal trading, Chinese govt also decided to ditch the rules. LME's main shareholder, HKEX UK, is controlled by central govt and demanded to cancel and withdraw any trading contracts of nickle in March 9 (if I'm not mistaken). Meanwhile, Qingshan announced that it managed to get enough nickle commodities in stock from Central Government to deliver the contracts in the day before. The nickle futures price fell immediately, because such huge amount of nickle commodities were useless to Glencore and the last thing Glencore wants is to see futures contracts delivered.
In futures trading, all we need is faith.