The Situation in the Ukraine: Predictions vs. Reality
By DMITRY ORLOV and posted with the author’s permission - The Saker blog - 27 February 2022
Dmitry Orlov, is a long time Russian author who lives in the United States, his blog, the Club Orlov, is at
Last Thursday I reposed my “top ten signs that Russia has invaded the Ukraine” from EIGHT YEARS AGO when the Ukrainian regime change and civil war first started and the West continuously made claims that Russia had invaded. Well, last Thursday 24 February 2022 Russia did indeed invade.
Russia had the full legal right to invade the Ukraine from several perspectives: to defend its allies in Donetsk and Lugansk; to defend itself against Ukrainian WMDs, which the Ukrainian president threatened to start producing at the Munich Security Conference; and to stop NATO from continuing its advance toward Russian borders in violation of its previous commitment of “not an inch to the east.” Russia exercised its right of self-defense under article 51 of part 7 of the UN Charter. The Ukraine had forfeited its right to territorial integrity under the 1970 UN Declaration by refusing to honor the rights of its Russian-speaking population. It also refused to renew its Friendship Treaty with Russia and therefore no longer had a defined border with Russia that Russia was obligated to honor.
From a strictly legalistic perspective, claims that “Russia violated the Ukraine’s territorial integrity” or that this is “an act of Russian aggression” is just pure twaddle (nonsense). From a moral perspective, the fact that the entire international community idly stood by and ineffectually discussed politics FOR EIGHT YEARS during which the civilian population of Donetsk and Lugansk was continuously shelled by the Ukrainian “anti-terrorist operation” is utterly shameful.
People who are now speaking out against Russia’s military action in the Ukraine need to answer a simple question: WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN FOR THE LAST EIGHT YEARS while the carnage in Donetsk and Lugansk was going on, while people were being burned alive in Odessa, while the Ukrainian government organized terrorist operations on Russian territory and while the entire Ukrainian population has been forced to kowtow to Americans and to speak Ukrainian, most often against its will? If your answer is “I didn’t know” then you have forfeited your right to an informed opinion on what’s happening there now. Please keep that in mind and act accordingly.
Now I will go through the 10 PREDICTIONS I made EIGHT YEARS AGO and see how well they held up in light of events that have unfolded for the past three days. A reasonable expectation would be that I got them completely wrong; if not, then that’s something of a minor miracle. Please keep that in mind also.
(drop by the site and read the comments there at the bottom)
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The reality of Ukraine’s situation is that the Russians are acting with prudence. To understand the reason for the war in Ukraine; read a statement by E. Wayne Merry, an employee at the US Embassy in Moscow during the 1990s.
“We’ve created a webshop open to theft on a national level and capital flight, in terms of hundreds of billions of dollars, and the rape of natural resources and industries on a scale that I doubt has ever occurred in human history.”
In addition to the owners of the Military Industrial Complex; US Mighty invested billions of dollars in Ukraine (Biden, father and son stories) bribing Ukrainian oligarchs and neo/former Nazis, and giving them support to remove the legally elected president in 2014.
After what you are reading, Ukraine has lost its compass in the civilized world.
The current war is not about defending the interests of Ukraine and its citizen, it is about the US interest. What would be the purpose of the Military Industrial Complex and its NATO if they did not invent enemies like the Russian Federation and China?
The Hegemon is nothing but evil. Pure and simple. Nothing good about this murderous mafia. Anything. And I can safely include the UK in that assessment. The war drums are beating -- this has now become a game of who will wink first. The Russians are in control of the situation. Europe is wrong to send weapons to Ukraine.