Miscellaneous News

Bellum_Romanum said:

The U.S. foreign policy blob is in a conundrum in what to do with the Ukraine dilemma of their own making versus their own designated strategic number 1 threat that's China. Here we have Eldrige Colby pleading to those who would listen to his advice that for God sake men, it's all about China!!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485421263736688644

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Funny thing about this is: focusing the US military on China doesn't have much effect on the types of moves China is making. Someone accidentally made a good point under that thread:

China remains as the number one threat in both military and economic roles against the U.S. We cannot flip a coin on who protect...our choice in preparation has to be based on who is the prevailing threat. Take a look at China's New Silk Road. Study it and see what is for real.

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Hey that's actually a decent point. But how exactly is the US military meant to stop the New Silk Road? Invade every country along the way? Ferment coloured revolution? We saw how well that worked in Kazakhstan. This is literately a case of one side playing go and the other playing checkers. Or alternatively in the words of a great man: 你打你的原子弹 我打我的手榴弹

It's pretty clear to me that the US is being stretched to the limit militarily, economically, and politically. It's going down the path of the Soviet Union.

As unthinkable as it might be only three years ago, we may very well see in our lifetime the dissolution of the United States.

Of course China is the greater threat because what drives Western fears about China has nothing to do with military aggression from China. It's advancing technologically and economically that's a threat to Western supremacy in the world and none of it justifies military action by the West without looking like a universally seen villain acting on selfish interests. The West claims it's for competition. Yeah when there is no competition. China represents real competition and they don't like it. That's why China is a grave threat to the Western world because what's really the threat that they see can only be countered in a civilized manner is by out competing China which they've shown they are incapable of doing that.

solarz said:

It's pretty clear to me that the US is being stretched to the limit militarily, economically, and politically. It's going down the path of the Soviet Union.

As unthinkable as it might be only three years ago, we may very well see in our lifetime the dissolution of the United States.

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The US is unlikely to dissolve, but it is definitely suffering from imperial overstretch.

It reminds me of the history books on the British Empire.

AndrewS said:

The US is unlikely to dissolve, but it is definitely suffering from imperial overstretch.

It reminds me of the history books on the British Empire.

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Roman Empire might be a more suited metaphor.

Internal political problems
Internal population problems
Excessive military adventures
Imperial overstretch
Enemies are circling

Overbom said:

Roman Empire might be a more suited metaphor.

Internal political problems
Internal population problems
Excessive military adventures
Imperial overstretch
Enemies are circling

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It's not that bad.

The Roman Empire had land borders with serious enemies.
The US doesn't face a credible military threat from Canada or Mexico.
So the US military can afford to lose or withdraw from the rest of the world without the homeland being credibly threatened.

AndrewS said:

The Roman Empire had land borders with serious enemies.

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Point taken. However in the modern world, harm can be inflicted without the enemy needing to set a foot inside another country. Plus, warfare is now made in multiple domains (military, economic, tech, supplies, information)

AndrewS said:

So the US military can afford to lose or withdraw from the rest of the world without the homeland being credibly threatened.

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Yes, but keep in mind that US's current luxurious lifestyle is being financed by being the Hegemon
I think its important to aknowledge that wars can now be fought in multiple ways.

Obviously 1-to-1 comparisons need to be "adapted" to the modern age. I agree though, no land threat exists for the US for the foreseeable future

AndrewS said:

The US is unlikely to dissolve, but it is definitely suffering from imperial overstretch.

It reminds me of the history books on the British Empire.

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For the past 30 years, the living standards of the American middle class have been subsidized by two things: public debt and cheap labor from China.

Public debt is only possible with US currency dominance, and even without the Trade War, Chinese labor is getting far more expensive.

Therefore, these two pillars are set to fall nigh simultaneously. The resultant shock will be greater than even the Great Depression.

AndrewS said:

The US is unlikely to dissolve, but it is definitely suffering from imperial overstretch.

It reminds me of the history books on the British Empire.

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Definetely not dissolve, but stagnant like japan, with skyrocket crime rates like south africa, and slums/favelas appearing like india or brazil

I don't think US will dissolve, stagnate, or collapse, but definitely facing imperial overstretch.

However, I do think as the US demographics increasing shifts away from Whites, with racial/ethnic minorities becoming the majority by 2050, that the huge minority population (blacks/Hispanic/Asians) will elect more who support more inward social welfare policies rather than expensive wars and bases abroad. Military spending will be reigned in by more populist, anti-war, and progressive candidates that seek to invest at home, rather than maintaining Old White Man's dream of imperial hegemony.

US could very well become more inward facing and spend more on social welfare (increasing or expanding Medicaid, Medicare, social security reform) that will require drastic cuts to military defense budget and reduce imperial overstretch.

TLDR: Minorities will overtake whites by 2050, and shifting demographic will result in less military spending and imperial overstretch as minorities tend to be more progressive and anti-war compared to Old White Man Imperialist, which is a dying breed.