Tbf Russia has gathered quite a lot of troops near Ukraine.
It can't credibly say that this is business as usual
Something has got to give.
Its like, imagine China massing troops from different regions, mobilising them opposite Taiwan and then saying "nothing to see here folks"...
Ukraine would be dumb to believe that so many troops are massing next to it just for some military exercises
I agree Russia will mostly likely mount an invasion but the situation is really bad currently I am from Europe to be specific north Europe it seems like they are deaf and haven't realize the situation except Sweden that geninuely believes Ukraine is faint attack and Russians will invade Sweden instead.. But there seems to be division in NATO and EU besides there is a geninue fear of Russia and the fear is fuking real and can't be understated..
Germany, France has been intimidated into submission and i recall Marcon 2 weeks ago suggesting a real surrender aka just like how the french surrendered back in WW2 in 9days and you have Hungary that has pussyied out and you can add Bulgaria while some have gone complete silent due to fear example Italy, Spain and Greece plus the other smaller fiefdoms like Netherlands, Portugal, etc etc..
The only once out here fighting or should i say not intimidated are the following the US, UK, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Baltic states and Canada..
Turkey seems like they geninuely are interested in cooling this down and offered to become the next minsk in holding Ukraine and Russia summit. Turkey is in non-intimidated camp but neutral They have good relations with Russia and don't want to see this outfall and it will impact their trade to some degree if Russia is sanctioned as the two have alot trade.. Hence if diplomacy falls Turkey has positioned itself as last resort diplomacy to diffuse the tensions but i don't think any of that matters as Russia is hell-bent and have made up there minds.
Conclusion and post-Ukraine war impact.. Russia will emerge as a major power overnight and one that is extremely feared meaning Russia will finally have that mane of glory the soviet had and if they dispatch Ukraine quickly and brutally while the whole world is watching this will put fear into anyone and this will become like a show of force for Russia and NATO and EU could disintegrate slowly as consequence many eastern Europeans will not feel safe unless they submit to the bear as the fear mongering will reach all time high even more then the soviet union era. Russia will be fear like mad