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- Thread starter bd popeye
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I think your whole take is foolish and dangerous. The US specifically abandoned Afghanistan/Kurds to shift to confronting China. A majority of Americans want to defend Taiwan and it's only increasing. The US won't let China win in the largest point of contention with it so easily.
A more interesting question is concrete ways/scenarios in which a US intervention in Taiwan can escalate past the nuclear level. I believe one likely scenario is US first use after devastating conventional losses.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
If the calculus is that China can go in and unite the ROC without consideration to the US, as if it didn't exist, then it indeed is foolish. However, there is a high likelihood, almost guaranteed, in fact, that the US will not intervene if China adequately prepares for it. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail, and China is preparing very well for US intervention, as it has been the core philosophy of China's military drive since 1996. There is a huge chance that the US will intervene if it believes it has a high chance of success, and that confidence will be bolstered if it believes that failing a conventional victory, escalation to nuclear warfare will grant it the win; but China is countering that right now with the fastest conventional military drive in the world and a renewed nuclear weapons building spree (eversince DF-41 and DF-ZF were ready). So to properly prepare, China has to build itself to a point where the US can see that it has an unaccepatbly low chance to win a conventional conflict, and then if it were to escalate beyond that by either losing side, China can deal it MAD. Once those things are met, China will have adequately prepared for the US and the US will not be able to intervene, except to complain and shriek about sanctions. We are getting closer there by the day; perhaps already there, who knows, but China is always doing more for good measure and more to reach the next level at which even the Taiwanese, with their distorted views of Western worship, can see that there's no hope of anyone (successfully) helping them and that the only way forward is to unify and become one with the newly minted most powerful nation in the world. (Pride will likely overwhelm them as they didn't know it was so fulfilling to stand up with a spine and declare one's own power as compared to licking foreign boots and rooting for others as a sidekick/cheerleader.) Once we reach this second stage, there will be very little reason holding Beijing back from making the much-anticipated move and it could very well be far less dramatic and satisfying than we had all hoped.
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Just yesterday, during the meeting between Turkish FM and Chinese FM Wang Yi. Wang made the following statement to Turkish side.
在同恰武什奥卢会谈时，王毅表示，我们要按照两国元首确定的方向，推动两国关系获得健康稳定的发展。一是支持彼此维护好本国的主权、安全和发展利益；二是恪守互不干涉内政这一国际关系基本准则；三是不在国际场合参加针对对方的活动；四是在历史、民族等认知差异问题上，通过双边渠道加强沟通，增进相互了解。
- supporting each others effort to safeguard sovereignty, security and interest.
- uphold the principle of non interference of domestic affairs.
- do not take actions against one another.
- on the matter of different history and ethnic identity, improve understanding by dialog.
Xi has made clear early on to support Kazakhstan's position, few days later the Turks visited China, then you hear this harsh "demands" from China. If you connect all these dots together, it is clear that not only Russia and Kazakhstan lay the blame on Turkey, but China too.
I am sure this is just a coincidence..
Rumors are flying everywhere that Turkey is going to re-enter the F-35 program
That's why I have been calling Turkey a snake for so long. And as always, snakes should be hunted on a "shoot-on-sight" basis
Huh? How so?
I have no idea that "feminism" is a contentious issue in S.Korea. i don't know if this tension is a natural product brought about by modernization or more assiduously the adoption of western prcepts that can sometimes create an adverserial relationship in a society like South Korea.
Here on this video, it's stated that the radical feminist have produced ads that essentially demeans and stereotypes Korean/Asian men's genital size..
Here on this video, it's stated that the radical feminist have produced ads that essentially demeans and stereotypes Korean/Asian men's genital size..
Bubba feminists want privilege when it is to their benefit and equality when it isn't.
This is not factual bro and i will explain to you why...
Turkey was relieved and happy to see Tokavey crush the protestors immediately and Kazakhstan retains stability.. They have to many investment there and companies they could have lost alot of money with turmoil..
Besides Tokayev and Nursultan have both good relations with Turkey and they had no side to pick..
Kazakhstan nor Russia has laid any blames on Turkey but that part is an inside gossip assumption on twitter like many other candidates thrown around like Israel, US, China etc etc..
But the real culprit is the US and they wanted to trap Russia into a Vietnam like conflict diverting them away from Ukraine but the protestors just died down within 2 days and never reached that far hence the intended plan failed.. Russia understood this immediately that it was a diverting tactics making there resolve on Ukraine stronger since that diverting tactics didn't materialize
What the United States is doing is kind of dumb.
They want to de-emphasize their strategic concerns in other parts of the world, so that they can focus more on the Ind-Pacific, their label, because they view China is the main adversary.
After this stated objectives of who to confront, then all the dumb stuff starts to happen.
What happens? In the Middle East, countries there sense the Americans are losing interest in the region, and Arab nations all significantly upgrade their relations with China. A key motivator there is Huawei, because their 5G gear represents a way out for them to lessen their dependence on fossil fuels. In short, America on the way out, China on the way in.
What happens? In Europe, Russia is at odds with some elements. China has Russia's back in case of any Western sanctions. In short, America on the way out, Russia on the way in.
What happens? In East Asia and Southeast Asia, they signed the RCEP and the One Belt One Road in going strong. In short, America on the outside looking at it, China is in a central position in all of that.
With the BRI, we can make similar observations regarding South America, and Africa.
What was Lithuania all about? I honestly don't know.
Looked like some sort of fight, but in the end, it was another mini-crisis in Europe.
The larger point it seems here, is perception.
Such as which way is this going?
We can look at a country any country, see strengths and weaknesses, numbers, blah blah blah.
Those metrics are only one part of the story, the other part is perception in that given those metrics, is the place going up or going down?
Clearly here, the perception of the United States is they are on the way out, because they said themselves they do not want to be there like before, such as the Middle East and Europe, because they want to confront China.
Therefore, the Americans are on the way out, in some places in the world, but in Asia, the Americans are not exactly ascending on their way in, because of RCEP and BRI.
What we are looking at, is American isolation. If President Trump returns, we may expect more of that.
Lithuania seems like one of two things. 1) butt hurt over losing Nicaragua from Taiwan to China so use Lithuania to compensate, or, 2) a tail wag the dog manipulation of the EU.
I think Lithuania does play some role in the context of American power and its ability to shape events.
What they are trying to attempt here, is unknown.
That to me is the real problem. They cannot go around trying anything and everything. It makes it look like they have no clue and no chance to take on China.
The US and pro-US factions, they look beat and isolated.