The US has tried this trick at the end of Trump's time in office. China rejected it. I don't see why China would pick it up this time.
There are two paths:
- As US wish, Meng admit guilt and released without China's official involvement.
- US win the "legal" and diplomatic ground.
- China loose the diplomatic ground.
- Canada further loose the Chinese favor.
- The two Canadians serve their full terms in Chinese prison because China is officially out of the loop.
- As China wish, Meng is released by Canada without admitting anything.
- China win the legal and diplomatic ground.
- Canada restore China's favor by essentially breaking away from US' orbit.
- Canada enters an uncharted water with US being troublesome.
- U.S. loose legal and diplomatic ground, and credibility of cohesion to the rest of world.
- The two Canadians released after sentencing.
So far, China's official stand is staying out of any negotiation with US and refusing the connection of the two Canadians with Meng's case. This means that China is only going to talk to Canada alone. Only this way can Canada expect an exchange.
If Meng take the bait (path 1), she will be socially dead in China, and forget about any career in Huawei. China is not going to pay national asset (diplomatic and prestige) for Meng to surrender to the US. What the US is doing is to exploit the personal weakness to get rid of a deadlock of useless negative asset.