Miscellaneous News

AndrewS said:

1. There are are Chinese competitors. They just need 1-2 years to ramp up production.
2. There is a 3? year stockpile of ASML DUV lithography machines, which are better than the TEL ones. Chinese DUV machines are also in fabs now
3. Give it 1-3 years for precision bearings
4. Another 1-3 years for Chinese competitors to ramp up? Also Samsung is an alternative
5. China accounts for the majority of global robot demand and also production of those robots. So give it 3 years to completely phase out Japanese component imports.




No, Japan doesn't have alternatives to many Chinese suppliers. For example, there are heavy rare earths where the only producer in the world is a single plant in China. And if the Japanese automobile industry is cut off from Chinese EV suppliers, in the medium-term, it is going to result in the bankruptcy of the Japanese auto industry.



The licensing regime may be applied selectively to the MIC, but the screening process and quotas will drag in every Japanese company that uses the same stuff. Japanese companies won't be able to expand.

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Forgive my small input but isn't high -end carbon fibre is/was a Japanese specialty ...but just read on another forum that China just broke that monopoly and is now producing T1000 grade/pan fibre the feedstock for producing carbon fibre of all types via Chinadaily-yeah,

jli88 said:

It will be hard to replace them, and lead to atleast a short to medium term disruption:

1. Photoresist
2. Tokyo Electron Lithography machines
3. Precision bearings, specially ones already designed into chinese products
4. MLCC Murata, both low-end and high-end
5. Industrial equipment - robotics, robot components, etc.

I am aware that there are Chinese competitors in all fields, but even if their products were equally performing (which they are not in many fields), even then it will take time.

Apart from that Japan is a big customer for Chinese goods, a big market.


Currently none, both need each other. But if China has alternatives for Japanese suppliers, so does Japan have alternatives for Chinese suppliers.




That's literally what I just wrote, will be very selectively applied to MIC only, and hence not in line with what everyone else is saying.

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Not going to correct you one by one, but MLCC capacitors? Really? What year do you live in lol

Ringsword said:

Forgive my small input but isn't high -end carbon fibre is/was a Japanese specialty ...but just read on another forum that China just broke that monopoly and is now producing T1000 grade/pan fibre the feedstock for producing carbon fibre of all types via Chinadaily-yeah,

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Chinese companies have been producing T1000 carbon for some time now.
The issue was mass production at low cost

EDIT

On a broader scale, it looks like China now produces the majority of carbon fibre (of all sorts) in the world.
China also consumes the majority of carbon fibre in the world.

Proton said:

Doubt it, Crude prices are already below $60/barrel.
It's a level where US oil industry is hardly able to make new investments, undermining its future viability.

If anything we should expect the US to try push Crude prices towards $70/barrel, this can only be achieved by slashing production, e.g. fully dismantling the Venezuelan oil industry.

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Or attacking Iran and letting speculators play their tricks.
___

Ringsword said:

Forgive my small input but isn't high -end carbon fibre is/was a Japanese specialty ...but just read on another forum that China just broke that monopoly and is now producing T1000 grade/pan fibre the feedstock for producing carbon fibre of all types via Chinadaily-yeah,

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Chinese firms currently producing T1100 CF.

China even successfully produced T1200 carbon fiber in laboratory and planning to commercialize it soon.

bsdnf said:

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Zhongfu Shenying has completed the development of laboratory-grade T1200 ultra-high-strength carbon fiber, achieving a tensile strength of 8056 MPa. Scale production grade yields a tensile strength of 7566 MPa.

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Japan used to be the critical player in China's high tech industry like machine tool/robots. now Chinese firms totally overtake Japanese firms in mainland and started to gain share in South east Asian market. even in critical component like RV Reducer in industrial robot. which is the most important and precision component in industrial robot. Japanese firm Nabtesco used to have monopoly but now half market captured by Chinese firms.

the only advantage right now Japan has its ''Photoresists''. that too we have domestic suppliers up to FinFet capable. the only issue is scale up production. which is imminent now. considering the rift between China and Japan relations.

see this information down below.

tokenanalyst said:

Two Dinglong Technology produced high end photoresists have passed verification by major domestic wafer foundries and secured orders.​

Dinglong Technology has achieved significant progress in domestically produced high-end wafer photoresists, with two KrF and ArF photoresists passing verification by major Chinese semiconductor foundries and securing orders. This marks a critical step toward reducing reliance on imported materials amid global supply chain decoupling.

With over 30 high-end photoresist products covering KrF and immersion ArF processes, Dinglong has established an independent R&D and manufacturing system from raw materials to finished goods, underpinned by a "self-developed R&D + vertical integration" strategy. Its Qianjiang Phase I factory currently supports annual production of 30 tons, with plans to scale up to 300 tons via a 910 million yuan convertible bond issuance (480 million yuan allocated for industrialization).
View attachment 166730
Beyond photoresists, Dinglong is a leader in semiconductor CMP materials the only domestic company fully mastering the core technology and process of CMP polishing pads, with strong growth in polishing slurries and cleaning fluids. In H1 2025, its CMP segment revenues rose by over 59% year-on-year, including first-time orders for copper polishing slurry.

This breakthrough strengthens China’s semiconductor supply chain security, demonstrating Dinglong's capability to provide stable, high-performance domestic alternatives in key bottleneck materials.​

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jli88 said:

It will be hard to replace them, and lead to atleast a short to medium term disruption:

1. Photoresist
2. Tokyo Electron Lithography machines
3. Precision bearings, specially ones already designed into chinese products
4. MLCC Murata, both low-end and high-end
5. Industrial equipment - robotics, robot components, etc.

I am aware that there are Chinese competitors in all fields, but even if their products were equally performing (which they are not in many fields), even then it will take time.

Apart from that Japan is a big customer for Chinese goods, a big market.


Currently none, both need each other. But if China has alternatives for Japanese suppliers, so does Japan have alternatives for Chinese suppliers.




That's literally what I just wrote, will be very selectively applied to MIC only, and hence not in line with what everyone else is saying.

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None are lithography machines. Not a single one. Everything they make can be replaced.

plawolf said:

I heard London has a decently large gold deposit underground.

The British museums also hold a lot of looted Chinese relics that should be returned.

Maybe the Crown Jewels as well as compensation.

Remember, China should respect western cultural normals and not seek to do any sort of nation building or reconstruction after a special military operation, and just strip the place of everything not nailed down and leave the locals to figure out how to put things back together after Chinese missiles and bombs and systematically demolished their key national infrastructure.

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Rituals are a thing; the king or queen of England must kowtow to the dragon throne or its representative and tremblingly beg forgiveness. Anglo historians love to use that word “tremblingly” to discuss the edicts from the Qing so let us oblige them to expect them to “tremblingly” obey. However the UK is not as high on my list of Anglo states which need to “tremblingly obey”, Australia is first and foremost my clear favourite.

tamsen_ikard said:

I was one of the biggest believers of Iran's strength and resolve during last year's war. When everyone was dismissing them as a loser, I kept faith in them surviving Israeli attacks and fighting back, which they did. But after the war, their actions have been extremely disappointing. Instead of galvanizing the public, they have given in to more defeatism. So, I don't believe Iran can lost long. The public is simply too far gone to the other side.

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A potato said:

Exactlly. Remember Japan only got victories on the Coastal Regions and Eastern China since it was already filled with Cucks. Once they got into western China it became a living hell for them. They couldn't fucking conquer Shaanxi province which is the only gateway into Chongqing.

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i dont like to advocate the destruction of a nation state but in the case of Japan, the benefit would be that all the positive aspects that westerners especially Europeans, love about China, will no longer be misattributed to Japan. We’re talking weaboos who love ramen (seriously, how many ramen shops are there in the Nordics already?!) and pine to go to Japan when in actuality all the items and practices they love are actually Chinese in origin, form and practice.

Chevalier said:

i dont like to advocate the destruction of a nation state

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Don't worry. I'll do enough of that for both of us. I hope Japan's pride forces them to double down every step of the way until they've literally given China no choice but to ensure Japan will never obtain nuclear arms capabilities. No matter the cost the Japanese must pay to ensure this outcome.

Valentine said:

As I see it, China seems afraid to take action, because any upheaval will impact citizens who have only just emerged from poverty. The government needs a solvent and stable population. But if it starts pressuring the US on all fronts, as Mao once did, it lacks the will and lives too comfortably, fearing risks to the population and their well-being.

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This aligns with my views as well. The Chinese people, in general and writ large, are childlike in their innocence and outlook on the outside world, despite the tumultuous centuries the country has endured.

Their primary interest has always been to look inward rather than outward. This inward focus made China technologically weak, allowed its culture and influence to atrophy, and enabled outsiders to appropriate Chinese cultural elements and claim them as their own.

My perspective on foreign intervention and foreign policy is definitely jaundiced and heavily influenced by the Western narrative. The use of hard power against the Philippines and other chihuahua-barking countries should and must be necessary to put them in their place and demonstrate that China means FAFO business when it comes to its sovereign territories beyond Taiwan.

I don’t have the answers or the wisdom to say with great confidence - let alone certainty- that if China had exercised the same gusto as the U.S. in deploying and applying force to achieve its national strategic aims, the current criticisms of Chinese government inaction and ineffectualness would have been silenced. The outcome might not have been glorious for China and its interests as many would have led you to believe espoused by many keyboard warriors and pseudo geopolitical analysts like myself lol

https://www.reddit.com/r/EhBuddyHoser/comments/1q51s7r
Canadian redditors feeling brave, saying they'll resist any American invasion. Bruh, Canada would fold in a month. It's cold af right now so all the US has to do is destroy power transmission for cities to freeze. Then our population centers are too far away from each other to mutually reinforce. Control the hinterlands and the cities starve.