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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are missing the whole way this game is played.

The overwhelming majority of countries on earth are just flip floppers geopolitically. They will prefer to stay independent, but will follow the prevailing currents of power and follow the dominant power if forced to choose a side.

But the thing is, these same countries are also all but irrelevant when it comes to the global great game irrespective of which side they pick. You think Venezuela under Maduro was going to send troops to fight for China in the event of a clash with America? Do you think Venezuela post-Maduro is going to send troops in support of America? And even if they did send some troops and stuff, how much would it actually matter? The same even applies to the EU and NATO. If China was already at war with America, can the EU contribute anything militarily that would actually make a real difference?

At the end of the day, when the chips are down and the missiles fly, it doesn’t matter who these little countries say they support, it’s which of the superpowers that can take and hold them that matters.

You are playing the game entirely wrong if you think force flipping these flip floppers individually is going to work or stick with some token application of military power. To make any gains really stick requires you to commit significant boots on the ground to hold those territories, even with genuine support of significant proportions if not outright majority of the local population. Why do you think the U.S. still maintains its military occupation forces in Europe, SK and Japan? Even in those heavily pro-US countries, there is a genuine risk that they will flip back to neutrality without the American military boot on their throats. Which goes back to the original point, you only own what you can hold.

China’s game is to win the economics contest such that all of the world will want to trade with China out of their own genuine self interests. It doesn’t need to force flip nations and peoples with military force because it can let economic gravity do the heavy lifting for it. It’s America who has lost the economic game who is now forced to resort to military force to coerce nations into acting against their own self interest.

China is also building up its own military might to not only be able to take the U.S. head on and win, but win so overwhelmingly that the US itself chickens out of the fight. That is the ultimate prize, to win world domination without needing to fight a world war.

Fighting America directly and winning a world war is actually the sorry consolation prize because of how much death and destruction that war will cost everyone.

China’s play might be more boring than the Hollywood fireworks show of America’s, but for the good of humanity, boring is best. The Romans didn’t use ‘may you live in interesting times’ as a curse for no reason. Anyone who has actually seen the brutal reality of war will never want to see that visited upon their own homelands, and that’s precisely what will happen to both China and America in the event of a direct full scale war, even if they managed to avoid going nuclear with such a fight by some miracle.
Yes, most small countries don't matter much in a ww3 scenario and most will flip back and forth. But there are a few determined anti western countries in the world which soak up a significant amount of attention and military assets from the US. Just look at how many assets they have in west Asia, mostly because of Iran. Take that away and you free up a lot of resources to be used directly against China. It might not be in the interest of the people of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia etc to be anti US, but if they're willing to participate in the struggle, it should be supported. Venezuela might turn from a distraction of American forces and politics to a success story if sanctions disappear and there's massive oil investments. Making more people around the world wish for an American coup in their country

Investing in other countries is not free. Are those investments better spent in Venezuela, which may or may not fight like a Vietnam (or may even flip to the US side when bribed) or are they better invested into the Chinese economy, tech research, and military buildup? I support Venezuela just like any warm-blooded Chinaman, or anyone with a hint of justice, but they're not known to be all that competent while on the other hand, China is at the very top of the world in competence. So... who can use the resources better?
That's not actually true. Investment in China is in RMB. Investment abroad is selling RMB to buy international assets, which keeps the exchange rate stable. Without selling enough RMB, the currency would appreciate. You can't just bring a trillion dollar export surplus home and expect the currency to remain stable. So China is forced to accumulate international assets or precious metals anyway.

However I would say you need to structure the loans correctly. China should fund local economic development programs instead of giving oil backed loans as in the case of Venezuela. If you give a corrupt borrower cash, it will disappear. But the bri loans have become smarter over the years
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
If China had the guts, they would reply back saying Asia is their hemisphere and US should stay out.

US is declining in raw power but have more willingness to use it. So, they are winning more and more while all the countries that were resisting US such Iran, Russia and Venezuela are all slowly losing due to lack of power. Even Russia is heavily degraded in terms raw national power due to the Ukraine war.

Power is not just about having the ability. It is also the will and guts to use that power, knowing there could be consequences and failures. And China in generals lacks the guts to use its power.

We saw some positive development last year with China firing the rare earth gun. They had that capability years ago but did not use it. This shows that having ability is not enough to be powerful. You also must have the will to use it.
 

Intention

New Member
Registered Member
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I haven't followed South Korea too closely but it looks like he is actually looking for a more constructive relationship with China.

One thing that stood out is he said that China has caught up or surpassed Korea in many areas of technology through the leadership of President Xi, I can't recall any Western leader saying something like that despite the being further behind
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If China had the guts, they would reply back saying Asia is their hemisphere and US should stay out.

US is declining in raw power but have more willingness to use it. So, they are winning more and more while all the countries that were resisting US such Iran, Russia and Venezuela are all slowly losing due to lack of power. Even Russia is heavily degraded in terms raw national power due to the Ukraine war.

Power is not just about having the ability. It is also the will and guts to use that power, knowing there could be consequences and failures. And China in generals lacks the guts to use its power.

We saw some positive development last year with China firing the rare earth gun. They had that capability years ago but did not use it. This shows that having ability is not enough to be powerful. You also must have the will to use it.
If we had the guts, we'd start talking like the rotting old pumpkin that destroyed Western and allied trust in the US by threatening to invade Canada and Greenland?

Or would we... just do it by building and building and building our military so no words need be said?
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Or would we... just do it by building and building and building our military so no words need be said?
Can't build much with 1.5% of GDP. Despite all the tensions in the region and across the world. China still keeps its official budget extremely low at 1.2%. They don't even have the guts to raise the official public budget much higher. Afraid that its neighbour might accuse China of "militarism". Even though those countries are raising their budgets 20-30% per year these days and stating explicit goals to go to 3-5% of GDP.

If China doesn't start getting more aggressive, they will face irreversible losses. Especially if Japan or Sk tries to get nukes.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
New vocabulary I learned today:

Pinoyjeet/Pinoy Jeet:
noun - A Filippino/Failoppino who spends copious amounts of time online defending and uplifting the US/Japan/Taiwan, to the point where he often loses track of his own national identity and starts bragging about foreign goods and military machines as if they were to the credit of his nation. Is poor, poorly educated, and has absolutely no idea what he's talking about but will declare it as loudly as an Indian jeet AKA Pajeet claiming that no Rafales were ever shot down but a dozen JF-17 were lost in Sindoor.
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
If China had the guts, they would reply back saying Asia is their hemisphere and US should stay out.

US is declining in raw power but have more willingness to use it. So, they are winning more and more while all the countries that were resisting US such Iran, Russia and Venezuela are all slowly losing due to lack of power. Even Russia is heavily degraded in terms raw national power due to the Ukraine war.

Power is not just about having the ability. It is also the will and guts to use that power, knowing there could be consequences and failures. And China in generals lacks the guts to use its power.

We saw some positive development last year with China firing the rare earth gun. They had that capability years ago but did not use it. This shows that having ability is not enough to be powerful. You also must have the will to use it.
This faulty analaysis of reality. US Donroe/Monroe doctrine means Europe will get weaken and that open the door to Royals. Royals already kicked France out of Africa. and behind Royals is technical help of Russia.
In this age of technology and high salaries. those hand me down things in limited quantity not work against US. US is not India.
Vietnamese were fighting a low tech US (by today standards). if US bring today technology against Vietnam. It will end up in sided collapse. US will know exactly where to hit and where to bypass air defenses and Vietnamese will not be able to bear the heat due to current climate in buildings.
Ukraine conflict gives alot of hints how to tackle this technological challenge. (AI inside the decision making and weopons)
Putin added a qualifier that everything changes except one thing and that one thing forced him to transform Ukraine and Soft Power regions of Russia into giant re education camp where male and female are separate. Putin also found real talent as war progresses that made Russian R&D ten times faster and further double down on his approach.
Putin had understanding but not to this extent when he sent this minister from Donetsk to meet Saudi King because he wanted him to make connections with Royal family members as those will be handy as he was unloading these Ukranian children in these summer camps this when he was telling ex Japanese PM Abe that i prefer to create new life. and when Saudi invited him to Austria he showed up despite flight restrictions reaching there. Russia raw and soft power is attached to Sunni Islam.


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Heirs of Victory" helped about 200 children from the LPR spend their holidays in Russian camps
 
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