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mshrief303

New Member
Registered Member
I think China will give the priority to face any US interventions, the head of the snake, then other countries will be a second priority and can be dealt with in a longer timeframe. I mean after you kick the US, then you can have your time with Japan or any other country that helped the US to attack you like the Philippine.

And no country will try to get involved without being sure that the US will intervene by itself in a big manner, so the core and the head of the threat is the US and should be prioritized.

And I want to note that Japan is a very serious power in general, but in the context of facing China, especially in a Taiwan contingency they're inconsequential.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
Are you assuming US also fighting or US staying out? Cause if stays out, China has no reason to fight them. China would happily destroy Japan while US watches from the sidelines.

If US joins, then Japan is a sideshow and US is the main event. Defeating US is the first order of business.
US staying out.
China might suffer some damage while taking out Japan, but US would be largely unaffected in physical warfare. What's next then? Another cannon fodder vassal steps up. This could go on for a long time, damaging China little by little, but not USA directly. Hence, the only solution I see is to directly engage the US from the get go, especially considering that it is the US that is instigating all the vassals to target China. So why not get to the root of the problem right away?

It's like USA vs China in a chess game, but China doesn’t get any pawns.
 

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
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Basically other countries want to copy China and have their own internet space/apps.

Funny how China was being bashed as backwards before. Yet now they want to copy it.

Another case of being ahead of the curve.
This is what the CPC often refers to as digital sovereignty. People in many countries are never even aware that they are using American apps, nor do they ever consider whether there are any potential problems involved.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's not really about collective security per se that pisses China off, but the fact that collective security only triggers in limited specific circumstances, (e.g. only when there is any existential threat to Japan as a result of attack on close partner) It's a huge leap (lie) to conclude Taiwan attack is anywhere an existential threat to Japan, so Sanae saying this is provocative to say the least. It's say "theoretically, we can interpret send JSDF into Taiwan contingency as it threatens the survival of Japan" which is remilitarization mindset that does need to be put in its place.
I do hope that nothing will come of this diplomatic kerfuffle with a disposable cucked-vassal like Japan......but perhaps this "chicken"needs to be killed in order to scare the "TACO-monkey" if it actually attacks China/kills Chinese but certainly lots of diplomatic angry words and national Chinese rage along with economic boycott-(the usual stuff) but no over /wrong reaction.
And I want to note that Japan is a very serious power in general, but in the context of facing China, especially in a Taiwan contingency they're inconsequential.
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Things may be much more pessimistic than imagined.
In the live broadcast of former military officer "TomCat regimental commander"(TomCat团座), he talked about the complex conflict between China and Japan over the cross-strait issue that has lasted for nearly 70 years. It can be said that Japan began to demonstrate its intention of military and political intervention in 1955. Without a doubt, Japan has been the most proactive in its performance.
But the most dangerous thing is still now(the video starts at 27:10). He thinks that from a geopolitical perspective, Japan cannot tolerate losing its dominant position in East Asia. The only hope for Japan is China to fail, lose its reputation, and fall into endless chaos.
Japan is not a role of hiding behind to provide support, it demonstrates extremely radical intervention intentions. Providing offensive weapons (Tomahawk missiles) to Japan by the United States is a wrong and dangerous action. Although these missiles may have limited practical use in warfare, but Japan has turned "self-defense" into a de facto offensive behavior through clever word games.
The Japanese must do everything possible to involve the United States in the war, so it is highly likely that it chooses to actively provoke conflict. This power is given to the cabinet rather than parliament to make decisions, so they can easily simplify the war decision-making process.
We should understand that opportunities can be created. Regardless of whether there is a real "crisis" as perceived by the Japanese, launching an active strike under this pretext can be interpreted as "self-defense". Once the conflict broke out, it didn't matter whether Japan's behavior was "self-defense", the Japanese "self-defense" is counterattack or preventive attack or active attack? It was impossible for Americans to prove that in times of crisis. Maybe only after the war will know the truth.
Then both China and the United States fell into decline, and Japan rise again. What a perfect script, isn't it?

So the recent diplomatic conflict will not be easily resolved. Now we are actually sending a message to neighboring countries(such like South Korea): do not intervene in this conflict at will, the possibility of Sanae Takaichi initiating the conflict is extremely high.
If we can crack down on Takaishi's ambition, we can curb Japan's internal adventurism. If Japan loses the ability to restrict this radicals, then we need to implement plan B
 

iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
US staying out.
China might suffer some damage while taking out Japan, but US would be largely unaffected in physical warfare. What's next then? Another cannon fodder vassal steps up. This could go on for a long time, damaging China little by little, but not USA directly. Hence, the only solution I see is to directly engage the US from the get go, especially considering that it is the US that is instigating all the vassals to target China. So why not get to the root of the problem right away?

It's like USA vs China in a chess game, but China doesn’t get any pawns.
Its obviously the American (or should I say Israel's) intent to use Japan as fodder and, in their minds at least weaken China first in a proxy war, provide indirect support without exposure and only jump in after Japan is spent. But you can also look at this another way:

- Chinese calculus always assumed fighting US and Japan at the same time, theres no scenerio where US and China gets into a direct conflict with and Japan gets to stay unused.
- If US thought they can take on China they would be willing to jump in on day one along with Japan, so to send Japan up first is a tacit admission that they have no confidence even fighting along side Japan and is afraid of damage to themselves
- A full scale war with the US will require war time mobilization of society and industry which takes time.

So if US do send Japan up first instead of together, it can also be seen as breaking up the enemy into smaller easier to deal with chunks, while giving China time to mobilize in a relatively safe enviroment. It also opens the potential of US staying out altogether and China getting the oppertunity to neutralizing Japan without ever fighting the US.

IMO the main consideration for China should be to have full preparation for fight both at the same time. China need to ensure there is the strategic option of attacking American cargo ships trying to resupply Japan, and down American aircrafts providing support, but not expand to target US assets elsewhere unless they engage first. At the same time Chinese ships should be deployed far out into the Pacific, outside of Japaness threat range and in place to immediately engage all US forces if they join.

During which time China should also immediately mobilize the economy assuming there will be a full scale war with US, which, if the west provides Japan with any indirect support, include full embargo of any and all industrial goods from all Asian countries going to the west, at a level that makes RE and Nexperia embargo look tame. If the west's caculus is to weaken China before jumping in, then its counter is to make sure China actually gets stronger relative to them.

The entire proxy war concept rest on the assumption that the target do not wish to directly engage the proxy's handlers, e.g. its Russia's inability to fight NATO that allows NATO to operate their Ukraine proxy. If this assumption breaks down, then the proxy war turns into a piecemeal feeding instead. China should not attack the US unless they engage, but China should be fully prepared and demonstrate through sinking supply ships the ability and will to do so.
 
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ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
US staying out.
China might suffer some damage while taking out Japan, but US would be largely unaffected in physical warfare. What's next then? Another cannon fodder vassal steps up. This could go on for a long time, damaging China little by little, but not USA directly. Hence, the only solution I see is to directly engage the US from the get go, especially considering that it is the US that is instigating all the vassals to target China. So why not get to the root of the problem right away?

It's like USA vs China in a chess game, but China doesn’t get any pawns.
Lol @ "suffer some damage".
A near term, limited HIC against Japan is exactly what I've wanted for some time now for the PLA to address by far their biggest remaining problem, self doubt & lack of confidence. Japan is the perfect candidate with their very high degree of equipment overlap with the US, everything from Aegis ships to munitions to fighter aircraft. To give them a taste of just how easy it really is to handle, under full unmitigated wartime conditions, each one of the overhyped, lackluster western MIC systems, everything from penetrating their AD to swatting down their lumbering cruise missile salvos to overwhelming them on the EM spectrum to dominating in aerial combat, with the corresponding PLA systems all of which are overbuilt in comparison. If it were anyone else but Japan I can easily see the PLA psyching themselves into thinking it didn't mean anything and the US would still be qualitatively different. But if this occurred it should inject some much needed appreciation for their own accumulated strength & confidence into their future actions & planning. That said, there is unfortunately always the risk of the US being dragged in with any such scenario, so I'm still indifferent about it.
 
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