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Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

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Phead128 said:
I'm pretty sure SK will go nuclear at some point (due to re-militarization of Japan + weakening confidence in US security umbrella, particularly post-Taiwan AR + stagnant denuclearization talks with NK + increasing modernization of China), so the only solution is demilitarization/denuclearization of SK for a genuine and permanent reunified peninsula. In other words, denuclearize both NK+SK, de-Americanize SK, and de-Juche-ize NK, via supreme military force.
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The biggest challenge for possessing nuclear weapons is facing global trade sanctions!
As long as a country can withstand these challenges, the world will recognize its existence as a nuclear-armed nation.
So you should ask those countries constantly clamoring for nuclear weapons: are they prepared for a global trade embargo?
 
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tamsen_ikard

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Puss in Boots said:
The biggest challenge for possessing nuclear weapons is facing global trade sanctions!
As long as a country can withstand these challenges, the world will recognize its existence as a nuclear-armed nation.
So you should ask those countries constantly clamoring for nuclear weapons: are they prepared for a global trade embargo?
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So you think China will do nothing as its neighbours with adversarial intentions get nukes? So close to Beijing? What a weak and cowardly Superpower China will be, if it can't even controls its neighbours from getting Nukes, while US Bombs even Iran thousands of KMs away.

No, Trade sanctions is not the biggest challenge in getting nukes. If a superpower don't want you to get nukes, and willing to go to war for it, you are not getting it.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

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tamsen_ikard said:
So you think China will do nothing as its neighbours with adversarial intentions get nukes? So close to Beijing? What a weak and cowardly Superpower China will be, if it can't even controls its neighbours from getting Nukes, while US Bombs even Iran thousands of KMs away.

No, Trade sanctions is not the biggest challenge in getting nukes. If a superpower don't want you to get nukes, and willing to go to war for it, you are not getting it.
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If a country is discovered to have started separating weapons-grade enriched uranium, all countries in the world will be prohibited from selling items to it, especially nuclear materials. All nuclear-armed countries have a very high consensus on this point!

South Korea will face an economic blockade and trade embargo. Are they prepared to endure the painful march North Korea has endured for over a decade? Food sales, oil embargoes, and all exports will be blocked. If South Korea can persist in developing nuclear weapons under these circumstances, then the world will respect its position!
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

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tamsen_ikard said:
So you think China will do nothing as its neighbours with adversarial intentions get nukes? So close to Beijing? What a weak and cowardly Superpower China will be, if it can't even controls its neighbours from getting Nukes, while US Bombs even Iran thousands of KMs away.

No, Trade sanctions is not the biggest challenge in getting nukes. If a superpower don't want you to get nukes, and willing to go to war for it, you are not getting it.
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China has no precedent for responding to attempts by weak hostile nations to acquire nuclear weapons. I believe Japan and South Korea may attempt nuclear armament in about a decade. By then, their economies will depend on China, which could likely stifle their nuclear ambitions through economic leverage. While they might cling to markets in the U.S. and India for survival, I doubt these export-driven, globalized economies could withstand the trade sanctions, military pressure from neighbors, and moral condemnation that nuclear armament would bring.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
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Nevermore said:
China has no precedent for responding to attempts by weak hostile nations to acquire nuclear weapons. I believe Japan and South Korea may attempt nuclear armament in about a decade. By then, their economies will depend on China, which could likely stifle their nuclear ambitions through economic leverage. While they might cling to markets in the U.S. and India for survival, I doubt these export-driven, globalized economies could withstand the trade sanctions, military pressure from neighbors, and moral condemnation that nuclear armament would bring.
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Even if China decouples from these countries, the west will not. They can trade with the west and survive economically. So, I don't think economic measures will be enough to stop these countries. Only military action and threat of military action will.

I think China is taken too softly by all countries and all peoples, including you I guess. People think China will not use force to achieve its goals. People think China is too much focused on its economy and will fear economic desruption too much to use military force.

Its because of this under-estimation of China that I believe SK or Japan will be more bold to pursue nukes and China will have to show its muscle and willingness to even sacrifice the economy to ensure national security.

China will have to Bomb some countries, break some bones and shed some blood before it gets respect.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

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Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Even if China decouples from these countries, the west will not. They can trade with the west and survive economically. So, I don't think economic measures will be enough to stop these countries. Only military action and threat of military action will.

I think China is taken too softly by all countries and all peoples, including you I guess. People think China will not use force to achieve its goals. People think China is too much focused on its economy and will fear economic desruption too much to use military force.

Its because of this under-estimation of China that I believe SK or Japan will be more bold to pursue nukes and China will have to show its muscle and willingness to even sacrifice the economy to ensure national security.

China will have to Bomb some countries, break some bones and shed some blood before it gets respect.
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This is a game of climbing up and then dismantling the ladder. Don't imagine the US will support other countries acquiring nuclear weapons! It's like the five permanent seats on the UN Security Council: no one wants to dilute their power, so no one sincerely wants to add new seats.
You underestimate the impact of a trade embargo! China's accelerated nuclear weapons development coincided with the famine, and I think the connection is self-evident. Do you think countries like South Korea and Japan, with limited natural resources, have enough uranium to support their research? Not to mention, can their meager food self-sufficiency rates withstand a food embargo? Without oil, modern industry will be lost, and a lack of fertilizer will further reduce food production. It's foreseeable that this will lead to a massive famine! Energy shortages will also further hinder the progress of nuclear testing.
So you should ask them: are they ready for this?
 
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tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
This is a game where you climb up and then dismantle the ladder. Don't imagine the US will support other countries acquiring nuclear weapons! It's like the five permanent seats on the UN Security Council: no one wants to dilute their power, so no one sincerely wants to increase their membership.
You underestimate the impact of a trade embargo! China's accelerated nuclear weapons development coincided with the famine, and I think the connection is self-evident. Do you think countries like South Korea and Japan, with limited natural resources, have enough uranium to support their research? Not to mention, can their meager food self-sufficiency rates withstand a food embargo? Without oil, modern industry will be lost, and a lack of fertilizer will further reduce food production. A massive famine is foreseeable! Energy shortages will further hamper nuclear testing.
So you should ask them: are they ready for this?
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The weaker US gets, the more incentive it has that China's hostile neighbours and its allies get their own nukes so that they can act as the anti-China trouble maker while it sits back.

Plenty of think tankers and other people in the west support Taiwan getting nukes these days. They actively cheer for it. Why do you think that is, its cause they are starting to realize fighting a Taiwan war is no longer viable for US. But that doesn't mean they want to give up on Taiwan, they think without US support the best option for Taiwan is to get nukes.

Preventing nuclear proliferation is a secondary goal compared to preventing China's rise or ensuring China is busy trying to fight its smaller neighbours and do not have the ability to project power across the globe.

US already implicitly supports Japan and SK getting nukes. Especially plenty of Trump-leaning "realists" think US should get out Asia Pacific alliances but allow Japan and SK to get nukes.

So, no I don't US or Europe will be against Japan, SK, Korea or Australia getting nukes. I expect them to support this openly in the future. It will be up to China to prevent it. and they have to use Military force to do it.
 
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