The US is a fleeting threat, but they're under permanent threat of being absorbed into China as so many kingdoms have in the past.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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At ~$250-265 million per Rafale then losing 3 would nearly be $800 million. If only India committed to the 126 Rafales a decade ago because it might have cost ~$33 billion for them.
proelite
Junior Member
RafaChanele.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That doesn't mean anything. How many people are affected? What does that number need to drop to for this to no longer be true by your definition?
On China's balance sheets.
That will forever be true as long as we continue to do business with the US. The only way to make that untrue is to cut off trade relations. These companies didn't get the memo and move to diversify their clients when times were good so now they need to do it in a hurry or die out. They will never do it as long as the times are good so you can't be hung up about them. They were given year from Trump's first trade war to now to rely less on the US. If they haven't done it yet, it's not about time; it's about reason and will.
That's not an answer to the question, which is, "What do we need from them that we cannot get elsewhere?"
They were given time from Trump's first trade war to wean off the US. Some people don't move until the wolf is knocking at the door. And some of them don't have to, because it's a totally legitimate point to make money while the oppertunity is there for it to be made. But they should have been keeping a fat savings account to help them with the transition when they are forced to make it; the writing was on the wall that selling to the US was a gig, not a career.
Yes, and how many?
You still don't answer the question of what they need from the US. Once we are there, we can talk about how to make the change to different suppliers. The point is, I don't think the US supplies anything critical and non-replacable to China. And to be honest, Chinese importers of US goods do deserve the punishment. They should know that they are doing what an enemy wants them to do and one should never voluntarily do what an enemy wants.
What's the number? The general economy grew by 5.4% so I don't think it's high. What data are you basing your conclusion off of that the number is too high?
And lastly, once again, for a lot of businesses and people, the philosophy is to never turn down money. So they will always be doing business with the US when the oppertunity is there. They will never move off of it until forced by a trade war.
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You are right about selling to other markets. I stated it later too in another post by saying "They need the time to find other markets to replace the US."
In fact I have been saying that China even started diversifying its export markets as early as 2013 when the BRI was brought up to the world.
I already said that tens of millions Chinese would be affected and how I estimated it. Whether or not this many is "too many" is up to everyone's own standards.
I would say as many as the social security system can afford. A couple of millions at the most would be my wild guess.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
This is crazy. How did you estimate tens of millions? How did you guess that a couple million is what we can afford? It's making numbers up out of thin air. It quite frankly sounds like you got them off of Epoch Times or a random MAGA facebook post.
I'm giving you numbers and statistics; that's how economics works. China's GDP growth at 5.4%; America's at -0.3%. This shows the economic health of the 2 countries. China's exports have increased by 5.6% overall in April. It shows we don't need the US to grow.
And how do you address my comment that some suppliers will never wean themselves off of a source of income until they are cut off? This is not about time to them, it's about reason; they don't make adjustments until they must make them.
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Vietnamese people can never become Americans, but they can easily become Chinese. Or rather, they can be easily absorbed as Chinese.
The question arises - 'If China is doing so much better, why can't I join them? Why can't I become Chinese?' - which is quite the existential question for Vietnam and its cultural identity. After all, Vietnam was continually ruled by China for nearly a thousand years, and there's hardly any genetic difference between Northern Vietnamese people and people from Guangdong and Guangxi.
To be culturally Vietnam you'd have to maintain a hostile attitude towards China, because otherwise, why bother?
What the fuck are you talking about? If you did not even read my this post, you should not have jumped in to comment.
The economic health of the US has nothing to do with how many Chinese people will be affected if the tariff war did not come to a truce now. The consequences of $400 billion export dropping to zero in a month would be drastically different than it dropping to zero in, say, a year.
Well in China even the drug addicted ones get a second chance for new life.
Because only China can cause existential threat level to Vietnamese culture, US can only cause government threat level. Vietnamese indeed is mainly a group of 百越 people, escape from South China and local people to avoid to sinicize completely and fight for it more than 1000 years, to compare with 30 years to resistance against America is too short. Not the same level at all. Of course our history textbook make very clear about this.