That seems to be an inevitable outcome, yes.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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supercat
Colonel
There are still too many of Chinese who depend on trades with the US.
In 2024, exports alone from China to the US were worth more than 400 billion dollars if I remember it correctly. In that year, the nominal GDP per capita was 13000 USD, more or less. Even assuming that workers making goods for the American market had higher productivity than other sectors, there will be tens of millions of Chinese workers and their families affected if all this 400 billion dollar market is closed off to them.
Not to mention that imports from the US, if cut off, can also hurt the average Chinese.
This is why China keeps saying that there is no winner in trade wars. What's different in 2025 compared to in 2017 is that China now can drag the US by the balls to the negations.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Our total exports increased despite a massive drop in exports to the US. This shows me that we are not dependent on the US market nut have successfully diversified. Also, our Q1 5.4% growth shows that we are balanced and healthy while America's 0.3% contraction shows that they are overly reliant on us.
That number should be considered extra money. There are 2 ways to make that number smaller: 1 is for the US to buy less and the other is for us to refuse to sell as much as they want to buy. Neither is going to happen in good business. Our export numbers to the US can be high, but it's most important to make all other numbers from trade with other partners to domestic consumption, higher.
What do we need from them that we cannot get elsewhere?
I think we say that just to sound nice and rational to the world. In actuality, if you can collapse the economy of your main rival and gain dominance in the global economy, you are the winner for sure.
I don't think we did. I think we just ignored them until they came running from self-inflicted pain.
China's had nearly a decade of warning by this point to cut business ties to the US. Any companies that haven't and get hurt now deserve it and should get their market share taken by people who have their act together. Not everyone's going to make it, and neither should they.
Don't swallow your own propaganda. This is the usual bromide China peddles, just like its calls for de-escalation between India and Pakistan. The truth is China's happy to kick America in the teeth like Pakistan kicked India in the teeth but it would rather take an off-ramp for now to put on steel-toed boots for the next round of teeth kicking.
Situation has been greatly improved but as I said there are *still* too many people affected.
Extra money to whom? There are companies who would lose businesses and workers who would lose pays or even jobs. They need the time to find other markets to replace the US.
It will take time for the importers to find another source.
The Chinese government cannot just ignore the welfare of those who are caught in between the crossfire. China does have to win at the great cost of this many Chinese.
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Both are of Semitic origin...
I don't know how you come up with this argument. I regard my family, relatives and friends middle classes and in major cities in China. The only things that some of us have are American branded cars produced in China, nothing else that are imported from US, and I have bought two Huawei watches and a Huawei laptop for my families since Trump 1.0, if quacomm chip is stopped, we'd have no regret to switch all our phones to Huawei. Any other Chinese who prefer iphone or quacomm chip may feel "hurt", but a kid asking for banana but received apple also feel "hurt".
The only Chinese who would really feel hurt are not Chinese by heart, and deserve to be truely hurt.
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Regardless of what are imported from the US, for those Chinese whose businesses and jobs depending on the imported goods and the importation, they all need time to change. You can think the truce as both sides buying time for the next round of battles. China imported goods worth more than 100 billion dollars from the US in 2024. Not all the importers deserve the punishment. There are legitimate reasons for some to keep doing business with the Americans.
Even for those who have ignored the warnings, yes you can say whatever about them, but if the number is too great to be neglected, the government still has to take their welfare in the calculations.