Bannon for Governor (of Canada).
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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The one topic that i constantly mention. EU would not be where it is now without Arabs.
i am not going to bring the impolite stuff. the only thing left is how to create alternative to firms like Airbus.
US-Russia cooperation can lower the cost for Boeing. Moscow engineering center have role in every Boeing post 1990s.
Well He is a half dead man any way. His usefulness is expected to correspond to his age as well as the current state of his country which is safe to say, not all that good
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This is the so called US plan. Trump wants the US, Russia, and China to cut military spending by half at the same time EU NATO is expected to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. The EU has an economy about the size of China. Who is he kidding with? White man speaks with forked tongue indeed. This is why China is unwilling to accept nuclear weapons limitations talks unless France and the UK are also included.
Dmitry Peskov also keeps saying Ukraine cannot join NATO but can join the EU. If the Russians believe that then they are delusional. The EU has its own defense clause, with its own facsimile of NATO's Article 5, and much of the countries in the EU are also in NATO. If Ukraine joins the EU it is pretty much the same as joining NATO by proxy.
Except Putin isn't the one initiating such talks. At least not this time. It was Trump who phoned Putin.
In the long run a new security architecture for Europe needs to be created. And while this failed in the talks prior to 2-2-2022, there was no way the US would accept a regression of the NATO borders to where they were in like 1994, perhaps now those conversations can progress further.
During Putin's Munich speech before the War with Georgia, he basically defined how such an architecture could have looked like. Georgia and Ukraine neutral outside NATO, and adoption of the modified CFE (Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe) to take into account the fact that the Warsaw Pact no longer exists and reflect the new power dynamics in Europe.
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I think Bloomberg in general and this author in particular are defensive.
Here is my Perplexity-DeepSeek-R1 Q&A on this subject:
The emergence of DeepSeek's cost-efficient AI model has introduced significant shifts in long-term valuation models for tech stocks, particularly affecting semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA), infrastructure-focused companies, and AI application providers. Here's a breakdown of the key impacts:
1. Nvidia (NVDA): Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Resilience
- Short-Term Pressures:
Nvidia lost nearly $600B in market cap following DeepSeek’s announcement, as investors feared reduced demand for high-end GPUs. The narrative centered on DeepSeek’s ability to train models at lower costs, potentially diminishing the need for Nvidia’s hardware. - Long-Term Bull Case:
- Jevons Paradox: Efficiency gains could drive more AI adoption, increasing demand for Nvidia’s GPUs.
- Hardware Dominance: DeepSeek R1 still relies on Nvidia’s GPUs for training and inference, reinforcing the company’s critical role in AI infrastructure.
- Valuation Rebound: Post-sell-off, Nvidia’s stock recovered partially, supported by tech giants’ $325B in AI capex commitments. Analysts project a potential $4T market cap if demand persists.
2. Tech Giants: Diverging Fortunes
| Sector | Winners | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| AI Applications | Salesforce, Snowflake (lower AI costs boost margins) | Proprietary model providers (e.g., OpenAI) |
| Infrastructure | Energy/utilities (data center demand) | Oracle, Broadcom (overcapacity risks) |
| Hyperscalers | Meta (open-source alignment) | Microsoft, Amazon (capex efficiency scrutiny) |
- Meta gained 6.4% due to its open-source AI strategy, aligning with DeepSeek’s low-cost model philosophy.
- Microsoft and Amazon face questions about optimizing cloud AI investments.
3. Valuation Model Adjustments
- Growth Assumptions:
Traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models for AI-driven stocks may need lower long-term growth rates, as cost efficiencies compress revenue projections for hardware-focused firms. - Margin Pressures:
Companies reliant on expensive AI training infrastructure (e.g., Oracle) could see margins shrink if demand shifts toward inference (lower compute needs). - Risk Premiums:
Investors may demand higher returns for semiconductor stocks due to geopolitical risks (e.g., China’s AI competition).
4. Sector-Wide Implications
- Semiconductors:
- Short-term sell-offs reflect fears of reduced GPU demand, but long-term demand for AI accelerators remains intact.
- Broadcom (-17%) and TSMC (-13%) face steeper challenges due to exposure to legacy AI hardware.
- Software & Applications:
Companies like ServiceNow and Snowflake benefit from lower AI operational costs, enabling scalable deployments. - Open-Source Momentum:
DeepSeek’s model validates Meta’s open-source approach, potentially accelerating industry-wide adoption and competition.
5. Strategic Takeaways for Investors
- Nvidia: A high-conviction hold for investors betting on AI’s expansion, despite near-term volatility.
- Diversification: Equal-weight indices (e.g., S&P 500 Equal Weight) outperformed cap-weighted indices during the sell-off, highlighting the risks of tech concentration.
- Focus on Adoption: Prioritize companies leveraging AI cost efficiencies (e.g., SaaS providers) over pure-play hardware firms.
