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RedBaron

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The senior American diplomat slipped quietly into Belarus, a police state run by a strongman reviled for decades in the West, traveling by car across the border for meetings with President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko and the head of his KGB security apparatus.
It was Mr. Lukashenko’s first meeting with a senior State Department official in five years, and the start of what could be a highly consequential thawing of frozen relations between the United States and Russia’s closest ally.
The below-the-radar American visit to Minsk, the Belarusian capital, on Wednesday came just a day after President Trump had a long telephone call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Both events signaled Washington’s departure from a yearslong policy of trying to isolate leaders out of favor in the West because of their repressive policies and the war in Ukraine.
After talks with Mr. Lukashenko, Christopher W. Smith, a deputy assistant secretary of state, and two other American officials drove to a village near the border with Lithuania. There, courtesy of the Belarusian KGB, three people who had been jailed — an American and two Belarusian political prisoners — were waiting to be picked up.

As darkness fell, the Americans and the freed prisoners drove back across the border to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital. Speaking outside the U.S. Embassy there on Wednesday evening, Mr. Smith hailed the successful completion of what he called “a special operation,” describing the prisoners’ release as a “huge win and a response to President Trump’s peace through strength agenda.”
The next step, Mr. Smith told a gathering of Western diplomats on Thursday in Vilnius, according to people who attended, is a possible grand bargain under which Mr. Lukashenko would release a slew of political prisoners, including prominent ones. In return, the United States would relax sanctions on Belarusian banks and exports of potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer, of which Belarus is a major producer.
Mr. Smith, according to diplomats who attended his briefing, said the primary U.S. goal was to secure freedom for more political prisoners. He said he had asked Mr. Lukashenko whether he was ready to scale back repression and was assured that he was. Another important aim, Mr. Smith told the diplomats, is to give Mr. Lukashenko some breathing room outside Russia’s orbit of influence.
Piotr Krawczyk, a former head of Poland’s foreign intelligence service who worked with the first Trump administration on loosening Russia’s grip on Belarus, said Belarus was “part of a wider American approach toward Russia.”
The United States is “confronting Russia in Ukraine, in Africa, in the oil and gas sector, and in several other strategic areas,” he said. “Negotiating with Belarus creates additional leverage for the U.S. to signal to Russia that they should be more attentive to American arguments.”
Mr. Shraibman, the exiled analyst, said a big question now was how the Kremlin would react to any rapprochement between Belarus and the West. Many Russian officials “would likely panic at the prospect,” he said, but “there is no quick or easy way for Belarus to distance itself from Russia given Moscow’s economic dominance over the country.”

He added that it was unlikely that President Trump “has any particular interest in, understanding of or a plan for Belarus.” Even so, he said, the “Trump factor certainly creates some momentum, as everyone, including Lukashenko, tries to impress the U.S. president and compete for his attention.”


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BillRamengod

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Europe will blow up if they make such an attempt. Europe lacks Arabic Soft Power and Hard power (money) to create an effective Army of Migrants. Migrants will first to turn on host countries if they find out such thing is created and the combat performance will be subpar in high tech battlefield.
Not even Turkey can create Islamic army of 21st century. This Muslim faith in 21st century is only for extremely wealthy societies.
Only Russia has the Wealth , Tech and Arabic Soft Power behind to create such an Army to command others. so when you look at Russia tourism statistics its hardly impacted. do you think Robots are fighting on there behalf?.
Kazan is the culture capital of Islamic world and Grozny is the Culture capital of Russia. and that Miss Tatarstan backstage once you understand is like distributing handouts.
Dear pmc, Please remind me how Saudi Arabia with such Hard Power defeated the Houthi.
 

Lethe

Captain
Except Europe had little sovereignty when it came to Ukraine policy. What they could and couldn't give was directly dictated by America.

That's why what Trump is saying is coming across as such a betrayal in European politics. They expected their obsequiousness to previous American policy to be rewarded, instead they are expected to make a complete 180 policy shift and sell it to their populace. For 3 years all European propaganda has been directed at calling Putin the new Hitler. Now they're expected to make peace with Russia and China is the bad guy.

It's like 1984's "Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia".

The only limitation on European policy toward Ukraine is on the subject of NATO, where accession requires unanimous consent. Yet the diplomatic history prior to the 2022 invasion has been well established at this point: Germany and France led the faction of nations that were sensitive to Russia's "red lines" regarding Ukraine and effectively obstructed progress towards NATO accession, while the United States led the faction (including, to be fair, some European nations) backing Ukraine in pushing for NATO accession and thereby, as we now know, along the path to war. As Washington was never the limiting factor on bringing Ukraine into NATO, even this theoretical limitation is, in practice, no limitation at all. Everything else is within the sovereign grasp of each European nation, including force generation and force deployment.

Trump daring to acknowledge the uncomfortable reality of the situation should not be a shocking development. What is shocking is that it has required hundreds of thousands killed and wounded in direct combat, many millions suffering indirectly, and a starkly diminished Ukrainian nation facing a prospective recovery bill in the hundreds of billions of dollars, to bring us to the present juncture whereby that reality can actually be publicly acknowledged. The performative outrage from leaders of nations most of whom (a) privately recognised the folly of attempting to bring Ukraine into NATO long ago and (b) have chosen not to invest in the capabilities that would be required to shape outcomes in this conflict without the United States, naturally invites the question: what alternative course of action would they suggest? A continuation of the status quo that appears to be significantly more sustainable for Russia than it is for Ukraine? A doubling or tripling down on external material support for Ukraine despite the comprehensive failure of most European governments to prepare their nations for wartime production (let alone wartime service) to date? To deploy and bring extant European forces into direct conflict with Russia, thereby risking nuclear escalation?

If European nations had actually treated the Ukraine conflict as the existential wartime crisis for Europe that they have told us that it is, defence spending would've absolutely skyrocketed these last few years to integer multiples of pre-2022 spending and, with even modest coordination between only a few of the larger European powers, we would not now be in the position whereby the whims of Donald Trump have a decisive bearing on the prospects for sustaining Ukraine in that conflict. The helpless passivity of European nations and the diplomatic indignities associated with that are not iron laws of history or physics, but the outcome of deliberate choices that European nations have made over years and decades.
 
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sheogorath

Major
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Breaking the China Russia alliance is out of the question obviously, but there may be a potential deal where US gives Russia concessions on Ukraine / Nato while Russia gives guarantees to not cooperate with China in the Asia-Pacific region.
The issue is that at this point in time, everybody is aware any concession is only temporary regardless. That it takes just an election cycle for the US to renegue on any agreement made and the erraticness will only get worse as the empire futher slips
 

pmc

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Dear pmc, Please remind me how Saudi Arabia with such Hard Power defeated the Houthi.
Saudi liberated half of the country and gave that Socotra island to UAE. and now poverty sticken houthi have no soft power left. even that Iraqi was running straight to MBS in tent. this is called Soft Power.

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pmc

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Well, hopefully Putin is not stupid enough to fall for the same old divide et impera tactic used by Anglos. Russian leadership has been very gullible in the past, so I am not completely excluding that possibility.
Russia was correct in past it just didnot have the competence due to prolong communist rule where Ministries were stuffed with people from all Soviet republics. it took a while for them to understand Arabic soft power and its relations with Israel. Soviet breakup was not just separating republics but separating Muslims. the last part people not give importance.
even now people think this conflict is about NATO or Europe but in reality how this thing is executed it seems that Russia want to create an Islamic barrier between Europe and Itself. I dont think Russia has that much interest in Europe. but Arabs have interest in whole of Europe. when i said execution it really means the application Arabic soft power through out the society. certain things are visible like this children exchange with Ukraine using Qatar but the invisible part is that extreme wealth that is apparent but no one talk about like this Mosque in Moscow with deep pile foundation and finest built.

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